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Electoral competitiveness in Washington, 1912-2014

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Competitiveness in
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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, Washington had a high percentage of incumbents winning reelection. From 1968 to 2014 the percentage of incumbents winning reelection never dipped below 60 percent for either the state senate or house.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Washington from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Washington

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Washington
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 49 53.1 65.4 0 3.8 23.1 0 19.2 80 57.7 91.7 33.3
1970 49 49 50 0 8.3 12.5 0 12.5 94.4 75 100 88.9
1972 49 53.1 73.1 0 7.7 34.6 0 7.7 88.2 65.4 100 60
1974 49 49 50 0 12.5 25 0 8.3 81.8 45.8 75 100
1976 49 51 72 0 8 24 0 20 100 84 100 100
1978 49 51 56 0 8 16 0 24 88.9 72 87.5 90
1980 49 53.1 46.2 0 19.2 34.6 0 19.2 60 57.7 54.5 75
1982 49 49 62.5 0 16.7 33.3 0 8.3 94.1 70.8 100 87.5
1984 49 53.1 46.2 0 11.5 23.1 0 3.8 78.9 73.1 75 81.8
1986 49 49 54.2 0 12.5 25 0 8.3 100 79.2 100 100
1988 49 51 44 0 16 24 0 8 94.4 72 100 90.9
1990 49 51 56 0 16 36 0 12 84.2 76 80 88.9
1992 49 53.1 61.5 0 15.4 19.2 0 7.7 83.3 46.2 100 71.4
1994 49 49 37.5 0 8.3 16.7 0 8.3 90.9 45.8 75 100
1996 49 51 56 0 12 40 0 20 89.5 76 92.3 83.3
1998 49 49 54.2 0 12.5 25 0 29.2 82.4 70.8 100 76.9
2000 49 53.1 50 0 11.5 23.1 0 26.9 95 76.9 90.9 100
2002 49 49 50 0 16.7 25 0 41.7 94.4 75 90 100
2004 49 57.1 53.6 0 17.9 32.1 0 14.3 90 71.4 100 80
2006 49 49 75 0 8.3 29.2 0 20.8 84.2 79.2 100 62.5
2008 49 53.1 53.8 0 7.7 11.5 0 26.9 95.2 80.8 90.9 100
2010 49 51 60 0 16 28 0 24 83.3 72 76.9 100
2012 49 53.1 46.2 0 3.8 15.4 0 23.1 86.7 57.7 83.3 88.9
2014 49 51 52 0 0 24 0 8 100 56 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Washington
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 99 100 43.4 0 10.1 19.2 0 17.2 93.9 82.8 92.3 95.3
1970 99 100 49.5 0 10.1 25.3 0 14.1 91.5 82.8 94.6 88.9
1972 98 100 58.2 0 19.4 30.6 0 8.2 85.1 75.5 92.1 77.8
1974 98 100 63.3 0 15.3 28.6 0 19.4 97.4 79.6 98 96.3
1976 98 100 63.3 0 10.2 21.4 0 16.3 90.5 75.5 93.5 85.7
1978 98 100 49 0 10.2 17.3 0 26.5 87.5 81.6 81.6 96.8
1980 98 100 41.8 0 9.2 20.4 0 11.2 93.6 79.6 87.5 100
1982 98 100 55.1 0 17.3 37.8 0 4.1 80 66.3 92.3 71.8
1984 98 100 53.1 0 13.3 18.4 0 4.1 95.9 75.5 97.3 94.6
1986 98 100 62.2 0 7.1 17.3 0 8.2 96.4 84.7 100 90.9
1988 98 100 64.3 0 10.2 14.3 0 12.2 97.3 74.5 97.8 96.3
1990 98 100 59.2 0 14.3 20.4 0 16.3 91.3 81.6 90.6 92.6
1992 98 100 66.3 0 17.3 26.5 0 10.2 92.3 66.3 100 80
1994 98 100 38.8 0 10.2 24.5 0 17.3 72.9 71.4 58.7 100
1996 98 100 42.9 0 16.3 27.6 0 15.3 94.4 73.5 100 91.5
1998 98 100 50 0 10.2 20.4 0 28.6 92.5 81.6 100 87.2
2000 98 100 50 0 11.2 17.3 0 16.3 96.4 84.7 95.5 97.4
2002 98 100 53.1 0 13.3 21.4 0 29.6 96 76.5 97.5 94.3
2004 98 100 56.1 0 9.2 20.4 0 18.4 97.4 79.6 100 94.3
2006 98 100 63.3 0 4.1 12.2 0 29.6 95.5 90.8 100 89.2
2008 98 100 63.3 0 5.1 14.3 0 18.4 97.5 80.6 98.1 96.2
2010 98 100 57.1 0 12.2 27.6 0 22.4 93.7 80.6 91.8 96.7
2012 98 100 56.1 0 7.1 15.3 0 20.4 97.4 77.6 100 94.1
2014 98 100 52 0 6.1 12.2 0 20.4 95.1 82.7 91.5 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Washington
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 13.4
1916 4.6
1920 45.2
1924 18.7
1928 36.4
1932 25.7
1936 37.9 42.3
1940 8.3 17.9 0.7
1944 10.7 14.7 3.4
1946 6 0 0 50 0 9.2
1948 6 0 33.3 66.7 0 10.4 3.4
1950 6 0 16.7 50 0 7.5
1952 7 0 28.6 57.1 0 12.7 9.7 5.3
1954 7 0 14.3 28.6 0
1956 7 0 14.3 42.9 0 22.2 8.5 9.7
1958 7 0 0 57.1 0 36.4
1960 7 0 14.3 28.6 0 2.4 1.5
1962 7 0 0 0 0 4.8
1964 7 0 14.3 42.9 0 44.4 24.8 11.9
1966 7 0 0 0 0
1968 7 0 0 0 0 29.2 2.3 10.5
1970 7 0 0 14.3 0 67.5
1972 7 0 28.6 28.6 0 19.1 8.5
1974 7 0 0 0 0 25.4
1976 7 0 14.3 14.3 0 49.5 4 8.9
1978 7 0 14.3 42.9 0
1980 7 0 14.3 28.6 0 8.3 14.2 13.4
1982 8 0 0 0 0 47.9
1984 8 0 0 0 0 13.1 6.6
1986 8 0 12.5 12.5 0 2
1988 8 0 12.5 12.5 12.5 2.2 1.6 24.4
1990 8 0 12.5 25 0
1992 9 0 11.1 22.2 0 8 15.2 4.3
1994 9 0 33.3 66.7 0 11.5
1996 9 0 33.3 55.6 0 14.4 15.9
1998 9 0 0 22.2 11.1 16.8
2000 9 0 11.1 11.1 11.1 0.1 5.9 19.1
2002 9 0 11.1 11.1 0
2004 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 12.5 7.3 0
2006 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 17.5
2008 9 0 0 11.1 0 17.5 6.5
2010 9 0 22.2 44.4 11.1 4.7
2012 10 0 0 10 0 20.9 15.3 3.1
2014 10 0 0 10 10

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