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Electoral competitiveness in Wisconsin, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, Wisconsin has seen a steady increase in the number of uncontested general elections.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in Wisconsin from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in Wisconsin

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, Wisconsin
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 33 48.5 25 0 6.3 6.3 0 18.8 91.7 75 80 100
1970 33 51.5 52.9 0 11.8 29.4 0 0 90 58.8 100 83.3
1972 33 51.5 35.3 0 5.9 29.4 0 0 100 58.8 100 100
1974 33 51.5 76.5 0 11.8 23.5 0 29.4 84.6 76.5 100 66.7
1976 33 51.5 64.7 0 0 11.8 0 11.8 75 70.6 100 57.1
1978 33 51.5 64.7 0 11.8 11.8 0 11.8 91.7 70.6 87.5 100
1980 33 48.5 56.3 0 6.3 18.8 0 31.3 90.9 68.8 87.5 100
1982 33 51.5 52.9 0 17.6 23.5 0 23.5 80 58.8 80 80
1984 33 51.5 64.7 0 5.9 17.6 0 17.6 87.5 47.1 100 75
1986 33 51.5 58.8 0 0 11.8 0 5.9 100 82.4 100 100
1988 33 51.5 70.6 0 0 5.9 0 35.3 100 76.5 100 100
1990 33 51.5 52.9 0 5.9 11.8 0 35.3 80 58.8 83.3 75
1992 33 48.5 56.3 0 18.8 25 0 31.3 91.7 75 85.7 100
1994 33 51.5 41.2 0 5.9 11.8 0 11.8 100 64.7 100 100
1996 33 48.5 56.3 0 12.5 25 0 37.5 100 75 100 100
1998 33 51.5 52.9 0 0 17.6 0 23.5 100 70.6 100 100
2000 33 48.5 56.3 0 18.8 18.8 0 37.5 84.6 81.3 87.5 80
2002 33 51.5 35.3 0 17.6 23.5 0 23.5 76.9 76.5 62.5 100
2004 33 48.5 50 0 6.3 25 0 50 100 56.3 100 100
2006 33 51.5 58.8 0 17.6 29.4 0 23.5 80 88.2 100 70
2008 33 48.5 50 0 25 25 0 50 100 87.5 100 100
2010 33 51.5 35.3 0 23.5 35.3 0 11.8 69.2 76.5 50 100
2012 33 48.5 50 0 6.3 12.5 0 37.5 100 75 100 100
2014 33 51.5 35.3 0 11.8 11.8 0 11.8 100 52.9 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, Wisconsin
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1968 100 100 48 0 7 16 0 10 92.2 77 97.1 88.1
1970 100 100 67 0 14 22 0 0 82.4 85 100 66.7
1972 99 100 62.6 0 8.1 21.2 0 5.1 93.2 73.7 93.9 91.7
1974 99 100 63.6 0 9.1 15.2 0 22.2 89.4 85.9 94.1 82.4
1976 99 100 66.7 0 5.1 13.1 0 15.2 97.6 84.8 100 93.5
1978 99 100 60.6 0 14.1 21.2 0 21.2 91.8 85.9 88.1 100
1980 99 100 59.6 0 8.1 12.1 0 31.3 95.3 85.9 96.2 96.9
1982 99 100 58.6 0 13.1 29.3 0 13.1 85.3 75.8 93.2 74.2
1984 99 100 52.5 0 6.1 16.2 0 15.2 93.2 74.7 88.1 100
1986 99 100 54.5 0 5.1 7.1 0 21.2 96.6 88.9 100 92.9
1988 99 100 56.6 0 5.1 14.1 0 28.3 95.3 85.9 96 94.3
1990 99 100 58.6 0 9.1 17.2 0 38.4 97.5 81.8 100 93.9
1992 99 100 52.5 0 7.1 14.1 0 37.4 95.9 74.7 92.9 100
1994 99 100 48.5 0 8.1 13.1 0 46.5 96.4 84.8 95.5 97.5
1996 99 100 47.5 0 6.1 11.1 0 30.3 96.7 91.9 95.3 97.9
1998 99 100 44.4 0 5.1 7.1 0 43.4 96.2 79.8 94.3 97.7
2000 99 100 43.4 0 5.1 11.1 0 41.4 100 89.9 100 100
2002 99 100 41.4 0 5.1 11.1 0 51.5 97.6 85.9 97.4 97.9
2004 99 100 39.4 0 7.1 15.2 0 43.4 97.4 78.8 96.6 98
2006 99 100 47.5 0 13.1 24.2 0 38.4 93.1 87.9 100 87.8
2008 99 100 52.5 0 10.1 20.2 0 30.3 96.6 88.9 100 93.3
2010 99 100 38.4 0 11.1 21.2 0 29.3 88.5 78.8 78.6 100
2012 99 100 39.4 0 11.1 15.2 0 25.3 93.2 74.7 95.7 94
2014 99 100 36.4 0 3 9.1 0 51.5 95.8 72.7 90.3 100

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, Wisconsin
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 11.4
1916 7.1
1920 62.9
1924 18.6
1928 9.4
1932 34.1
1936 35.7 22.4
1938 21.2
1940 51.6 1.9 1.1
1942 15.3
1944 8.3 1.8 13.1
1946 10 0 0 10 20 24.2 21
1948 10 0 10 30 10 4.6 10.2
1950 10 0 10 10 0 7.2 7.1
1952 10 0 10 10 0 8.7 22.3 25.3
1954 10 0 10 30 0 3.1
1956 10 0 10 10 0 17.4 23.9 3.8
1958 10 0 30 40 0 14.4 7.3
1960 10 0 0 30 10 3.7 3.1
1962 10 0 10 20 0 5.4 0.9
1964 10 0 20 20 0 6.7 24.4 1.1
1966 10 0 20 20 0 7.4
1968 10 0 10 10 0 23.4 3.9 6.1
1970 10 0 20 20 0 42.7 9.5
1972 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 10
1974 9 0 11.1 33.3 0 26.6 11.9
1976 9 0 11.1 11.1 11.1 45.6 1.7
1978 9 0 0 11.1 0 9.5
1980 9 0 11.1 22.2 0 1.9 5.2
1982 9 0 0 0 22.2 30.2 15
1984 9 0 0 0 11.1 9.2
1986 9 0 0 0 33.3 3.5 6.6
1988 9 0 0 0 11.1 4.5 3.6
1990 9 0 0 22.2 33.3 16.4
1992 9 0 0 11.1 0 6.7 5.6
1994 9 0 11.1 33.3 22.2 17.8 37.1
1996 9 0 33.3 33.3 0 11.8
1998 9 0 0 22.2 22.2 2.2 21.3
2000 9 0 11.1 11.1 0 24.9 0.2
2002 8 0 0 0 37.5 4.3
2004 8 0 0 0 12.5 11.3 0.4
2006 8 0 12.5 12.5 12.5 39.1 7.5
2008 8 0 0 12.5 25 14.1
2010 8 0 12.5 37.5 0 4.9 5.8
2012 8 0 0 0 0 5.7 7
2014 8 0 0 0 0 5.7

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