Email: Learning Journey: Presidential Day 3

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  Today, we review the highlights of our Learning Journey.

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Welcome to the final installment of Ballotpedia's Learning Journey on presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire! Today we'll take a look at some historical data and review what we've already learned. Let’s get started! Do candidates who win Iowa go on to win their party’s presidential nomination? “There are three tickets out of Iowa,” you’ll hear political observers say about the importance of placing first, second, or third in the state. And for good reason. Since 1976, only one candidate has finished outside of the top three in Iowa—Sen. John McCain (R) in 2008—and went on to win his party’s nomination. The top candidate in seven of nine contested Democratic caucuses won the party’s nomination. For Republicans, three of eight contested caucuses yielded a winner who became the party’s nominee. What about New Hampshire? New Hampshire has a better overall track record. Of the nine contested Democratic primaries since 1976, five New Hampshire primary winners became the nominee. On the Republican side, winners in six of the eight contested primaries became the nominee.  What can they tell us taken together? History shows that a candidate does not need to win both contests to ultimately make it to the White House. But he or she probably needs to win at least one. Since 1976, only one Democratic presidential candidate has lost both primaries and still won his party’s nomination and the general election: Bill Clinton in 1992. No Republican over the same time period has become president without winning the Republican primary in at least one of the two states. Review Check out the following Ballotpedia pages to dive deeper into this Learning Journey's key concepts: Caucus Primary elections in Iowa Semi-closed primary Primary election Primary elections in New Hampshire

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