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Fact check: Is the American middle class at "the point of near non-existence"?
At the Keystone Progress Summit debate for candidates running in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for the US Senate,[1] Katie McGinty declared, “I am in this race to fight for people, to fight for families, the middle class that is squeezed in this country now to the point of near non-existence.”[2]
It’s not surprising that a senatorial candidate would try to appeal to middle-class voters, since most Americans identify themselves as “middle class” in national surveys.[3] But that raises the question of whether a group in which a majority of Americans claim membership can be correctly described as on “the point of near non-existence.”
What is the middle class?
Despite the fact that “middle class” is one of the most widely used terms in American public discourse, it doesn’t have a firm definition.
Professionals who study social and economic issues disagree about the meaning of the term. In 2015, an economist claimed that he had collected 156 different definitions of "middle class."[4]
Looking to official government sources for an answer doesn’t help much either. The U.S. Census Bureau collects data on many economic and demographic issues, but on its Frequently Asked Question page, the bureau explains: “The Census Bureau does not have an official definition of ‘middle class.’”[5]
Much of the problem in defining “middle class” stems from the fact that it is commonly used both as a synonym for “middle income” and to identify a segment of the population that holds a vaguely defined set of cultural values and aspirations in common.
Ballotpedia reached out to the McGinty campaign to find out what her definition is, but has not yet received a reply. This article will be updated if the campaign replies.
The middle class: culture and self-identification
“Middle class families are defined by their aspirations more than their income,” according to the January 2010 report of the Task Force on Middle Class Working Families chaired by Vice President Joseph Biden.[6]
The report, Middle Class in America, neatly demonstrates the problem of trying to define the middle class in cultural terms.
Unable to rely on an already existing and widely accepted definition of the aspirations of the middle class, the authors simply assert what they believe those aspirations to be:
| “ | We assume that middle class families aspire to home ownership, a car, college education for their children, health and retirement security and occasional family vacations.[6][7] | ” |
Assigning a set of shared aspirations or values, and using terms with subjective meanings like “occasional,” is common practice in attempts to produce a cultural definition of the middle class.
An alternative to this approach is to rely on polling data to determine who self-identifies as middle class.
The most recent national poll asking respondents to identify themselves according to class was conducted by Gallup in 2015, as part of a series of polls on class identification the organization has done since 2000.[3] The poll found 51 percent of Americans self-identify as middle class. This represented an increase of one percent from the results in 2014, but it was a decline from earlier polls. Between 2000 and 2008, more than 60 percent of respondents identified themselves as middle class in each year’s survey.[3]
Middle class and middle income
Defining the middle class by income would seem to be simpler than trying to create a cultural definition. Although it may be simpler, it is not simple.
Economists disagree not only on how to measure a middle-class income, but even on what should be measured. Common disagreements include whether it is better to measure income pre-tax or after all taxes on that income are paid and whether or not to include government subsidies as income.
There is also the problem of whether to use an absolute or comparative measurement, as a study from the Congressional Research Service points out.[8] An absolute measurement uses the same standards nationwide. The comparative approach allows for such variations as regional differences in median income, recognizing that the same amount of income goes much further in Manhattan, Kansas, than it does in New York City’s borough of Manhattan.
Although the Census Bureau does not have its own definition of middle class, the bureau occasionally needs to use one in its research. After examining various approaches to defining the middle class by income, a 2014 Census Bureau working paper decided the Pew Research Center method is the most useful.[9]
Pew’s research also has the advantage of being more up-to-date than other major studies of the middle class. Its latest report was published in December 2015, using data from 2014.[10] Earlier studies, such as those published by the National Bureau for Economic Research[11] and the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality,[12] use data from before the economic downturn that began in December 2007.
Pew relies on data from the Census Bureau and the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System and defines as middle class “ those with an income that is 67% to 200% (two-thirds to double) of the overall median household income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size.”[10]
In its most recent report, Pew found that “the middle class made up 50% of the U.S. adult population, down from 61% in 1971.”[10]
Conclusion
Pew’s research concludes that the percentage of Americans who could be considered middle class has shrunk every decade since the 1970’s, but is McGinty correct when she claims that the middle class “is squeezed in this country now to the point of near non-existence?” In short, no. The number of people Pew identifies as middle class may have declined, but no group that constitutes 50 percent of the nation’s adults, and with which a similar number of Americans identify in Gallup polls, can reasonably be described as at “the point of near non-existence.”
Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.
Sources and Notes
- ↑ The Keystone Progress Summit, accessed April 1, 2016
- ↑ New Castle News, “State of the race: Campaign for Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat,” February 22, 2016
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Gallup, “Fewer Americans identify as middle class in recent years,” April 28, 2015.
- ↑ Economics for Public Policy, “Who are the middle class?” August 28, 2015.
- ↑ US Census Bureau, “Frequently Asked Questions,” accessed April 1, 2016.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Office of the Vice President of the United States Middle Class Task Force, “Middle Class in America,” January 2010.
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Congressional Research Service, “The distribution of household income and the middle class,” March 10, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, “Examining the middle class in the United States using the lens of the Supplemental Poverty Measure,” September 30, 2014
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Pew Research Center, “The American middle class is losing ground,” December 9, 2015
- ↑ National Bureau for Economic Research, "A Second Opinion on Economic Health of the Middle Class," June 2011.
- ↑ Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, "On the identification of the 'middle class,'" September 2011.
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