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Fact check: The EPA's "measurable effects"
January 8, 2016
By David Borman
Did the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) admit that the Clean Power Plan will have no measurable effects on global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates? In a statement announcing his change in party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, Kentucky Rep. Jim Gooch claimed they did. We found that this isn't true: EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy has indicated that the EPA's climate policies would not produce measurable differences in key climate change indicators, but this is not the same as showing no difference in global carbon rates. The EPA has quantified changes in carbon rates as a result of the plan but has indicated that their policies in general would not result in noticeable differences in global temperature, sea surface temperature or other visible changes associated with climate change.
Background
On December 28, 2015, Kentucky State Rep. Jim Gooch switched his party allegiance from Democrat to Republican. In his statement on the switch, Gooch cited his disagreement with the policies of President Barack Obama (D), saying he understood, “I could be a member of the party of Obama, but that I cannot be a member of the party that SUPPORTS BARACK OBAMAS [sic] POLICIES!” Gooch went on to state a number of policies he did not agree with, including the 2015 Clean Power Plan. Gooch wrote, "Obama’s own EPA has admitted that the carbon reductions in his clean power plan will have no measurable effect on world carbon rates."[1] Our emails requesting Gooch’s source for this claim have yet to be returned.
The notion that the EPA has admitted that the plan has "no measurable impact" is widely disseminated around the Internet and has been the subject of a number of empirical analyses. Blogs such as Climate Depot and the nonprofit Partnership for Affordable Clean Energy note this admission, as does former Obama Assistant Secretary of Energy Charles McConnell, who now directs the Energy and Environment Initiative at Rice University.[2][3][4] We found that there are two main testimonies from EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy that contribute to this notion: a 2013 exchange with U.S. Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) on the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee and a July 2015 hearing with the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee.
To assess the issue of the plan's "measurable impact," two definitions are essential, as they represent the distinction between what Gooch claims and what the EPA has said:
- "Global carbon rates," to which Gooch referred in his statement, are quantifiable volumes of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere.
- "Climate change indicators," which the EPA has publicly commented upon, represent proof of climate change. These would include higher ocean temperatures, amount of snow pack and frequency of wildfires, according to the EPA.[5]
In the two specific comments by McCarthy addressed below, which were the most direct statements we could find from the EPA on this issue, the Clean Power Plan had not yet been finalized and implemented. Rather, McCarthy's answers were about the EPA's broad efforts in climate change policy—efforts that she said would not affect the climate change indicators. In other words, taken alone, she said that the policies set forth by the EPA would not result in lower ocean temperatures or fewer wildfires. However, the EPA does quantify the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gas reductions that could result from the Clean Power Plan and other climate policies. Based on this evidence, we suggest that Gooch's assertion is false.
EPA testimony
In the 2013 questioning by Pompeo, the Clean Power Plan had not yet been presented to the public. Therefore, McCarthy's answers were about a more general climate policy, not the specific plan to which Gooch referred. Pompeo questioned McCarthy about whether the EPA's broad regulations would directly affect the 26 "indicators of climate change" the EPA lists on its website. McCarthy responded, "It is unlikely that any specific one step is going to be seen as having a visible change on any of those impacts. What I’m suggesting is that climate change has to be a broad array of actions that the U.S. and other folks in the international community take that make a significant effort toward reducing greenhouse gases." McCarthy went on to clarify, "What we're attempting to do is put together a comprehensive climate plan across the administration that positions the U.S. for leadership on this issue and that will prompt and leverage international discussions and actions."[6]
In July 2015, McCarthy appeared before the Science Committee, where the committee chair Lamar Smith (R-Texas) cited former Assistant Secretary of Energy Charles McConnell’s op-ed for The Hill, in which McConnell stated that the EPA’s plan would mean "a resulting 0.01 degree Celsius impact to global temperature."[4] When asked if McCarthy disagreed with the figure, she replied, "I’m not disagreeing that this action in and of itself will not make all the difference we need to address climate action. But what I’m saying is that if we don’t take action domestically, we will never get started."[7]
In both cases, McCarthy testified that the EPA's policies in themselves would not produce a visible change in what scientists indicate are features of climate change—e.g., changes in global temperatures or the number of heat-related deaths. She made no comment, however, on the measurable reductions in carbon emissions that could result from the EPA's policies.
In its official fact sheets and analyses of the plan, the EPA does quantify the amount of carbon that could be reduced by implementing the Clean Power Plan. They note, "When the Clean Power Plan is fully in place in 2030, carbon pollution from the power sector will be 32 percent below 2005 levels, securing progress and making sure it continues."[8] Likewise, the EPA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis for the plan estimates a CO2 emissions reduction of "415 million short tons annually in 2030."[9]
Conclusion
In December 2015, Kentucky Rep. Jim Gooch stated, "Obama’s own EPA has admitted that the carbon reductions in his clean power plan will have no measurable effect on world carbon rates." We found Gooch’s statement to be false. The EPA has quantified the reductions in carbon rates that could result from the Clean Power Plan. However, we did find the EPA stating that this climate change policy alone would not show measurable differences in what it considers indicators of climate change, such as global temperatures or sea surface temperature.
Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.
Sources and Notes
- ↑ WDRB, "KY State Representative switches to Republican Party," December 28, 2015
- ↑ Climate Depot, "EPA Chief Admits Obama Regs Have No Measurable Climate Impact: ‘One one-hundredth of a degree?’ EPA Chief McCarthy defends regs as ‘enormously beneficial’ – Symbolic impact," July 15, 2015
- ↑ Partnership for Affordable Clean Energy, "Former Energy Official Speaks Out On EPA Carbon Rule," August 13, 2014
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 The Hill, "EPA's carbon plan isn't environmental policy, but pain and politics," August 11, 2014
- ↑ EPA, "Climate Change Indicators in the United States," accessed January 7, 2016
- ↑ U.S. Government Printing Office, "The Obama administration's climate change policies and activities," September 18, 2013
- ↑ Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, "Full Committee Hearing - Examining EPA’s Regulatory Overreach," July 9, 2015
- ↑ EPA, "FACT SHEET: Overview of the Clean Power Plan," accessed January 7, 2016
- ↑ EPA, "Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Clean Power Plan Final Rule," October 23, 2015
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