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Florida's 15th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

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Florida's 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Dennis Ross (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+6
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 15th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

State Rep. Ross Spano (R) defeated former state Rep. Neil Combee (R) in the Republican primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District, a seat that became open when incumbent Dennis Ross (R) announced he would not seek re-election a month before the candidate filing deadline.[3][4]

Spano, who was endorsed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R), represented a seat in the Tampa suburbs.[5] His policy priorities included support for the Trump administration, anti-abortion legislation, and the Second Amendment.[6]

Through the second quarter of 2018, Spano led fundraising for Republicans in the race, with $157,000 in contributions, including a $45,000 loan he made his own campaign. Combee followed with $112,000 over the same period.[7]

Combee served in the state legislature, representing a district in Polk County, before working as the state executive director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Farm Service.[8] He called himself "the only candidate trusted and appointed by President Trump," referring to his position with the USDA.[9]

Combee earned the endorsement of several state legislators—Reps. Mike La Rosa (R), Ben Albritton (R), and Josie Tomkow (R)—but was overlooked for an endorsement by three Polk County commissioners. Combee attributed the pass over to his public support for a broader homestead exemption. He noted that Spano, who the commissioners endorsed instead, also voted for the exemption.[10]

The commissioners acknowledged Spano's vote and said the homestead issue had nothing to do with their endorsement. Commissioner George Lindsey said Spano's experience, education, and demeanor made him a better general election candidate.[10]

Three other Republicans ran for the seat: Sean Harper, Danny Kushmer, and Ed Shoemaker.



For more on related elections, please see:


Election results

Ross Spano defeated Neil Combee, Sean Harper, Danny Kushmer, and Ed Shoemaker in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15 on August 28, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ross Spano
Ross Spano
 
44.1
 
26,904
Image of Neil Combee
Neil Combee
 
33.8
 
20,590
Image of Sean Harper
Sean Harper
 
9.9
 
6,018
Image of Danny Kushmer
Danny Kushmer
 
6.7
 
4,067
Image of Ed Shoemaker
Ed Shoemaker
 
5.5
 
3,379

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 60,958
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

The candidates below had either led in polls, received support from U.S. elected officials, or been mentioned in media coverage as top contenders. They are listed in alphabetical order.

Republican Party Neil Combee

Neil Combee.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Combee, a former state representative for Polk City, was appointed state director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency in November 2017. He has an agricultural background, operating a cattle farm.[11]

On his campaign website, Combee identified being a vocal ally of the Trump administration in Congress, establishing a balanced budget amendment, ending the visa lottery system, and opposing amnesty as some of his policy priorities.[12]

Republican Party Ross Spano

Ross Spano.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Spano was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2012. He earned his J.D. from Florida State University College of Law and opened the law firm Spano & Woody P.A. He has been a board member of Junior League of Florida, board member of the Brandon Foundation, Lowry Park Zoo, Seffner Chamber of Commerce, and The Straz Performing Arts Center.[13]

On his campaign website, Spano identified being a partner to President Donald Trump, eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, and defending the rights of law-abiding gun owners.[14]

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Endorsements

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Republican candidates in the primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican primary candidate endorsements
Endorsement Republican Party Combee Republican Party Spano
Federal officials
Sen. Marco Rubio (R)[15] ✔
State and local officials
State Rep. Ben Albritton (R)[16] ✔
Former state Sen. J.D. Alexander (R)[17] ✔
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi (R)[15] ✔
Former State Attorney Jerry Hill (R)[17] ✔
Polk City Mayor Joe LaCascia (R)[16] ✔
State Rep. Mike LaRosa (R)[16] ✔
Plant City Mayor Rick Lott (R)[18] ✔
Former Auburndale Mayor Jack Myers (R)[17] ✔
Former State Attorney Mark Ober (R)[18] ✔
Auburndale Mayor Tim Pospichal (R)[16] ✔
State Rep. Jake Raburn (R)[18] ✔
State Rep. Josie Tomkow (R)[16] ✔
Organizations
Family Research Council[15] ✔
Florida Right to Life[15] ✔

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kristen Carlson Democratic Party $2,108,841 $2,101,886 $6,955 As of December 31, 2018
Andrew Learned Democratic Party $369,226 $361,967 $7,260 As of December 31, 2018
Raymond Pena Jr. Democratic Party $10,969 $19,463 $-8,029 As of September 30, 2018
Neil Combee Republican Party $217,665 $217,577 $88 As of December 31, 2018
Sean Harper Republican Party $103,289 $103,289 $0 As of October 25, 2018
Danny Kushmer Republican Party $77,077 $77,077 $0 As of September 30, 2018
Ed Shoemaker Republican Party $21,952 $21,952 $0 As of December 31, 2018
Ross Spano Republican Party $935,844 $934,199 $1,645 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 15th Congressional District, Republican primary
Poll Spano CombeeShoemakerHarperKushmerRogersUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
St. Pete Polls
August 11-12, 2018		 30%36%5%4%4%0%22%+/-5.2360
Spectrum News Florida
Juy 25-30, 2018		 26%20%7%6%7%0%34%+/-N/A360
St. Pete Polls
July 8, 2018		 32%20%4%3%2%2%37%+/-4.2532
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Debates and forums

June 15, 2018, debate

Combee, Spano, and seven other Democratic and Republican candidates participated in a debate at the Tampa Tiger Bay Club, where they discussed the Trump administration, public funding of charter schools, and gun violence, among other issues.

  • Find the 88.5 WMNF round-up of the debate and audio clips here.
WMNF News Debate, Part 1 of 3, June 15, 2018
WMNF News Debate, Part 2 of 3, June 15, 2018
WMNF News Debate, Part 3 of 3, June 15, 2018

Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Neil Combee

Support
Combee campaign ad, released July 19, 2018

Republican Party Ross Spano

Support
"American Dream" - Spano campaign ad, released August 10, 2018


Mailers and flyers

  • In August 2018, the Combee campaign released flyers to Republican residents of the district that read, "Neil Combee is the only candidate who lives and works in Polk County. Don't let Tampa steal our congressional representation!" Harper and Shoemaker, who both live in Lakeland in Polk County, challenged the claim. Combee said the ad was a mistake, adding, “It was supposed to say, ‘the only candidate who lives and works in Polk County who can win this election.'"[19]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Republican Likely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 15th Congressional District the 187th most Republican nationally.[20]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[21]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[22][23]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Ross won't seek reelection," April 11, 2018
  4. ↑ Florida Politics, "Ross Spano leads Republican field in CD 15, poll shows," July 9, 2018
  5. ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "Marco Rubio endorses Ross Spano for open congressional seat," July 12, 2018
  6. ↑ Ross Spano, "Issues," accessed August 28, 2018
  7. ↑ FEC, "Florida - House District 15," accessed August 9, 2018
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: On primary day, GOP's still fretting that Don Blankenship could cost them key race," May 8, 2018
  9. ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "‘Never Trump Neil': This race for Congress gets nasty," July 6, 2018
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 The Ledger, "3 Polk County commissioners have endorsed Ross Spano over Neil Combee in GOP primary race for Dennis Ross’ House seat," June 13, 2018
  11. ↑ The Ledger, "Polk City Republican Rep. Neil Combee chosen as new USDA state director, will leave Florida House," November 7, 2017
  12. ↑ Neil Combee, "Where I Stand," accessed August 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Florida House of Representatives, "Representative Ross Spano," accessed August 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Ross Spano, "Issues," accessed August 19, 2018
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 Florida Politics, "Family Research Council backs Ross Spano for CD 15," August 18, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 Florida Politics, "Neil Combee heralds second wave of Polk endorsements," May 16, 2018
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Capital Soup, "Combee for Congress Proud to Announce More Polk County Endorsements," May 16, 2018
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 Florida Politics, "Ross Spano lands a dozen endorsements for CD 15 campaign," May 14, 2018
  19. ↑ The Ledger, "Combee flyer falsely claims he’s the only candidate from Polk," August 17, 2018
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  21. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  22. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  23. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
  24. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  25. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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