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Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018

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Florida's 16th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Vern Buchanan (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+7
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 16th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Six-term incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated personal injury attorney David Shapiro (D) in the race for Florida's 16th District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

The Tampa Bay Times called this seat the third most-likely to flip in the state. Buchanan won general elections by a margin of victory of at least seven points in the three elections leading up to the 2018 race, while President Trump won the district by 10 points in the 2016 election. Election forecasters considered this race to be competitive.[3]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added Shapiro to its "Red to Blue" list and spent $900,000 airing ads opposing Buchanan. Buchanan reserved $3 million in fall advertising, which was more than three times the amount his campaign spent during the 2016 election, according to Politico. [4][5]

Florida's 16th Congressional District is located in west central Florida and includes all of Sarasota County and part of Manatee County.[6]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan defeated David Shapiro in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 16 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vern Buchanan
Vern Buchanan (R)
 
54.6
 
197,483
Image of David Shapiro
David Shapiro (D)
 
45.4
 
164,463

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 361,946
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

David Shapiro defeated Jan Schneider in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of David Shapiro
David Shapiro
 
54.7
 
34,807
Image of Jan Schneider
Jan Schneider
 
45.3
 
28,834

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 63,641
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Vern Buchanan
Vern Buchanan

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages
Vern Buchanan, U.S. Representative
Vern Buchanan.jpg

Campaign website Facebook

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Representative, Florida's 16th Congressional District (2013-Present), U.S. Representative, Florida's 13th Congressional District (2007-2013)

Biography: Buchanan served in the Michigan Air National Guard from 1970 to 1976. He received his B.B.A. from Cleary University and his M.B.A. from the University of Detroit. Buchanan was first elected to the U.S. House to represent the 13th District in 2007, and he began representing the 16th District in 2013.

Key messages
  • Buchanan's campaign website states he is a "self-made businessman, who knows what it takes to create jobs and jump-start the economy. He understands that America’s greatness comes from its entrepreneurial spirit and pro-growth, free-market policies."[7]
  • Campaign priorities include a 10-step plan to create jobs, reducing taxes for small businesses, and competing in the modern global marketplace.[8]
  • Buchanan's campaigning focused on his efforts to "fight against red tide and toxic algae" in campaign ads. He highlighted that he was one of two Republicans to receive an endorsement from the environmental group Oceans Champions.



David Shapiro, attorney
David Shapiro.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Shapiro received his B.S. in journalism/public relations from the University of Florida and his J.D. from Florida State University. His professional experience includes working as an attorney at Shapiro, Goldman, Babboni & Walsh.[9] Shapiro has also served as the treasurer and vice president of Children First, an early education program.

Key messages
  • Shapiro said he ran for Congress "because he knows that the dysfunction in Washington needs to end." If elected, he said he would be "committed to making healthcare more affordable for our seniors and middle-class, creating jobs for the 21st Century, and protecting our most valuable resource, the environment."[10]
  • Shapiro's campaign priorities included raising the minimum wage, providing affordable healthcare, and preserving Medicare and Social Security.[11]
  • Shapiro criticized Buchanan in campaign ads for taking money from special environmental interest groups and siding with them instead of Florida and for Buchanan's support for the 2017 American Health Care Act.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Vern Buchanan David ShapiroDon't know/someone elseMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Opinion Strategies
October 4-7, 2018		 52%42%5%+/-4.9400
UNF Media Relations
September 30-October 2, 2018		 49%40%12%+/-4.4499
St. Pete's Polls
October 1, 2018		 50.4%43.3%6.3%+/-2.81,248
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Vern Buchanan Republican Party $2,991,634 $4,379,662 $79,240 As of December 31, 2018
David Shapiro Democratic Party $2,618,549 $2,616,316 $2,234 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 16th Congressional District the 178th most Republican nationally.[12]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[13]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Vern Buchanan

Support

"Red Tide" Buchanan campaign ad released September 24, 2018

Oppose

"Tablet - Rep. Buchanan" Change Now ad, released October 1, 2018
"Deal" Dave Shapiro for Congress campaign ad released October 1, 2018
"Clean" Dave Shapiro for Congress campaign ad released September 25, 2018
"How" Change Now campaign ad released September 17, 2018

Democratic Party David Shapiro

Support

"Build" Shapiro campaign ad released October 9, 2018
"Clean" Shapiro campaign ad released September 25, 2018

Oppose

"Pelosi's Puppet" Buchanan campaign ad released August 28, 2018
"Two-Faced" Buchanan campaign ad released July 24, 2018

Campaign themes

Republican Party Vern Buchanan

The following themes were taken from Buchanan's campaign website.

“ Creating Jobs

U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan is a self-made businessman. He knows what it means to balance a budget, meet a payroll, and to exercise fiscal discipline that keeps a business moving forward. Giving small businesses the resources they need to create jobs, making sure our government spends no more than what it takes in, and keeping taxes low will ultimately mean greater economic growth and prosperity for everyone.

We have had an anemic economic recovery from the Great Recession. What the country truly needs is a common-sense plan to boost our economy and protect and produce more American jobs in the United States.

In order to achieve these goals, Vern Buchanan has a 10 point plan to create jobs and restore our economy:

1. Tax Reform: Broadly restructure our tax system in order to help struggling families and to encourage businesses to keep their jobs in America. 2. Regulation Reform: Abolish costly onerous government regulations on employers that drive up costs while keeping job growth down. 3. Eliminate the New Health Law’s Mandate on Business: Repeal the new, heavy-handed requirement that all businesses buy health insurance for their workers. 4. BBA: A Balanced Budget Amendment will help bring stability to our economy. 5. Trade: Support free and fair trade to open global markets and create jobs in the United States. 6. Tort Reform: Pass far-reaching legal reform that removes frivolous lawsuits from our court system. 7. Energy: Propose expanded drilling in places like Alaska and other areas. Expansion will not only lead to more American energy, but lead to hundreds of thousands of jobs. 8. Labor: Fight an overactive NLRB. Support states pursuing right-to-work laws. 9. China: China has ignored intellectual property rights. This cost the U.S. economy $48 billion in 2009. One study concluded that if China cracked down on this problem, it could create 2.1 million jobs in the U.S. 10. Government Workers: Reduce the government workforce by 10% via attrition and align wages and benefits of government workers with private sector.

Tax Relief for middle-class working Americans and small businesses

The U.S. tax code punishes families trying to make ends meet and employers trying to compete in the global marketplace.

If we are serious about reducing unemployment and strengthening our economy, we should let people keep more of their own money and help small businesses grow, not punish them with higher taxes. America’s greatness comes from its people and their innovation, not more government intrusion.

Reducing the tax burden on small business would free up money that could be used to invest in new equipment, grow their company and hire more workers.

Retirement Security

Senior citizens and retirees living on their Nest Eggs are particularly vulnerable to the current economic difficulties. Many are worried about the continued viability and long-term solvency of their pensions, IRAs, and 401(k) plans.

Key Federal safety net programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, must be protected and their long-term solvency be ensured to help retirees and seniors in their post-employment years. We need a non-partisan Blue Ribbon Commission to make recommendations about how best to guarantee Social Security and Medicare’s long-term future. In the early Reagan Administration, the “Greenspan Commission” helped save Social Security for 30 years. We need a 21st Century version of this to help keep Social Security and Medicare safe for the Baby Boom generation.

Compete in the 21st Century Global Marketplace

The global population has surpassed 7 billion people and 95% of the world’s consumers live outside of the United States. Opening up foreign markets for U.S. goods and services helps create jobs here at home. The U.S. must continue to negotiate and implement more bi-lateral Free Trade Agreements, which enable domestic exports to grow by opening up new markets for our goods and products abroad. U.S. workers are the best workforce in the world, as long as they compete on a level playing field. We must continue to support Federal job re-training programs to help workers adapt to the changing marketplace of the 21st Century.

The U.S. must also maintain its status as a world leader in education, particularly as the demand for students with strong mathematics and science backgrounds continues to grow. We can remain competitive in the 21st Century only as long as we maintain a strong primary, secondary, and post-secondary education system which produces top-notch students well-suited for the employment needs of a technology-reliant society.[8][14]

”
—Vern Buchanan (2018)

Democratic Party David Shapiro

The following themes were taken from Shapiro's campaign website.

“ Jobs and the Economy

Everyone should have the opportunity to succeed, regardless of where they start in life. Too many people still have to work two or three jobs just to put food on the table and a roof over their families’ heads. David believes the foundation of a healthy economy is a thriving middle class. That’s why he will focus on helping people who work for a living keep more of what they earn with tax cuts for the middle class and increasing wages on Main Street, not protect profits for special interests on Wall Street.

As your Congressman, David will fight for a higher minimum wage, job training for the 21st Century, and tax cuts that help working families, not just the wealthiest in this country.

Affordable Healthcare

Everyone should have the opportunity to succeed, regardless of where they start in life. Too many people still have to work two or three jobs just to put food on the table and a roof over their families’ heads. David believes the foundation of a healthy economy is a thriving middle class. That’s why he will focus on helping people who work for a living keep more of what they earn with tax cuts for the middle class and increasing wages on Main Street, not protect profits for special interests on Wall Street.

As your Congressman, David will fight for a higher minimum wage, job training for the 21st Century, and tax cuts that help working families, not just the wealthiest in this country.

Protecting our Seniors

David believes after years of hard work and sacrifice; our seniors have earned the right to retire with dignity. That means seniors shouldn’t have to choose between paying for over-priced prescriptions or buying groceries. Social Security and Medicare are not entitlements, but contributions everyone pays into for decades. Our seniors have earned the right to benefit from decades of work at the end of their careers. These programs have low administrative costs and are some of our most successful federal programs.

As your Congressman, David will fight to protect Medicare and Social Security from being cut, privatized, or reduced for Florida seniors.

Standing with Veterans

Our community is home to more than 74,000 veterans who have served our nation. As the son of a World War II veteran, David believes that we must keep our promise to veterans. They deserve the best healthcare, job training, and education available after risking their lives to protect our country. In Congress, David will fight to ensure all veterans receive the opportunity to succeed once they return to civilian life.

The Veterans Administration (VA) should be an invaluable resource that serves all of our veterans across the country. However, it is overrun with embarrassing backlogs and has failed in its mission.

Veterans fought for our country, and as your Congressman, David will fight for them. He will ensure that the VA lives up to the promise we made to our heroes in uniform.

Protecting our Land, our Water, our Coastline

Our community is home to more than 74,000 veterans who have served our nation. As the son of a World War II veteran, David believes that we must keep our promise to veterans. They deserve the best healthcare, job training, and education available after risking their lives to protect our country. In Congress, David will fight to ensure all veterans receive the opportunity to succeed once they return to civilian life.

The Veterans Administration (VA) should be an invaluable resource that serves all of our veterans across the country. However, it is overrun with embarrassing backlogs and has failed in its mission.

Veterans fought for our country, and as your Congressman, David will fight for them. He will ensure that the VA lives up to the promise we made to our heroes in uniform.

Equal Rights & a Woman's Right to Choose

David has worked to protect people in Florida from abuse for more than 30 years and believes that no one should be denied any rights or protection because of their race, gender, religion or sexual orientation. We need to live the words of our founding documents, “that all men (and women) are created equal.” In the last century, we have made tremendous progress toward eliminating discrimination and ensuring that we are all treated equally under the law. Unfortunately, in recent years we have seen a regression of those rights in too many communities. David knows that LGBTQ couples should never be denied any of the rights that all married couples are given, women should receive equal pay for equal work, as well as feel safe from sexual abuse, and regardless of religion, our neighbors should feel free to worship without fear of discrimination.

As your Congressman, David will fight to make sure everyone will be protected equally under the law. That means adding LGBTQ Americans to the groups protected by the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and fighting to end the divide between races and religions. Finally, David will continue to protect women’s access to basic health care through Planned Parenthood, including a woman’s right to make decisions about her healthcare without interference from politicians in Washington.

Common-sense Gun Safety Laws

The horrific and tragic event that claimed the lives of 15 high school students and two educators is yet another reminder that we must take action and pass common-sense gun safety laws before there is one more life lost. We can preserve the right to bear arms protected by the Second Amendment, and still take reasonable precautions to protect our children and the general public.

It’s obvious that there are far too many loopholes that allow dangerous criminals or those with mental illnesses to access guns. We need background checks that will make communities and our families safer.

As we’ve seen too often in Florida, assault weapons are designed to inflict mass carnage and injuries within seconds. We need a full ban on weapons of war.

And it’s time to close the gun show loophole so that dangerous individuals cannot bypass the laws designed to protect our children and communities.

As your Congressman, David will fight to protect our families by pushing for background checks for gun purchases, keeping assault weapons out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unstable, and closing dangerous gun show loopholes to make communities safer.

Israel and the Middle East

In June of 2015, I fulfilled a lifelong mission to go to Israel. My wife Robin and I, along with our Rabbi, Brennar Glickman, and 50 members of Temple Emanu-el visited the Holy Land. I have always been proud of my Jewish heritage and identity, but never more so than when I traveled through Israel.

Since Israel’s founding in 1948, during periods of peace, war, and terrorism against both countries, the United States and Israel have been steadfast, trusted, and reliable allies and partners, based upon their shared values of peace, security, freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. At no point in our historic relationship has this partnership been stronger or more essential to our collective security and U.S. foreign policy than it is right now.

As your Congressman, David will be a zealous supporter of the U.S. Israeli relationship, and of Israel’s right to exist—in peace and security—as a Jewish, democratic state.[11][14]

”
—David Shapiro (2018)

Social media

Twitter accounts

Note: Vern Buchanan did not have a 2018 campaign Twitter account as of October 3, 2018.

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Vern Buchanan Facebook

Republican Party David Shapiro Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Jan Schneider (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Buchanan defeated James Satcher in the Republican primary, while Schneider defeated Brent King to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[17][18]

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 59.8% 230,654
     Democratic Jan Schneider 40.2% 155,262
Total Votes 385,916
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 16 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 80.6% 53,706
James Satcher 19.4% 12,900
Total Votes 66,606
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. House, Florida District 16 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJan Schneider 76.2% 31,387
Brent King 23.8% 9,782
Total Votes 41,169
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 16th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Henry Lawrence (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 61.5% 169,126
     Democratic Henry Lawrence 38.4% 105,483
     Write-in Joe Newman 0.1% 220
Total Votes 274,829
Source: Florida Division of Elections

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[19][20]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "The Buzz’s Florida congressional vulnerability rankings, post-primary edition," September 10, 2018
  4. ↑ Washington Post, "National Democrats start spending big money on anti-corruption message," September 13, 2018
  5. ↑ Sarasota Magazine, "Six-Term Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan Walks a Tightrope in the Age of Trump," September 26, 2018
  6. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  7. ↑ Vern Buchanan 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed September 18, 2018
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Vern Buchanan 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
  9. ↑ LinkedIn, "David Shapiro," accessed September 18, 2018
  10. ↑ David Shapiro 2018 campaign website, "About David," accessed September 18, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 David Shapiro 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
  12. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  13. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  17. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  18. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  19. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  20. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
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Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
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District 21
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District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)

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