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Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Florida's 16th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Vern Buchanan (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 16th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th
Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 16th Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Vern Buchanan won election in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 16.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 24, 2020
August 18, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Vern Buchanan, who was first elected in 2006.

Florida's 16th Congressional District is located in west central Florida and includes all of Sarasota County and part of Manatee County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Florida's 16th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 45.5 44.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 53.6 55.5
Difference 8.1 11

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter registration deadline was extended to October 6, 2020.[2]

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan defeated Margaret Good in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 16 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Vern Buchanan
Vern Buchanan (R)
 
55.5
 
269,001
Image of Margaret Good
Margaret Good (D)
 
44.5
 
215,683

Total votes: 484,684
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Margaret Good advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Vern Buchanan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 16th Congressional District the 178th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Vern Buchanan Republican Party $3,643,336 $3,649,491 $73,085 As of December 31, 2020
Margaret Good Democratic Party $3,457,415 $3,453,335 $4,080 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 16th Congressional District candidates in Florida in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Florida 16th Congressional District Qualified party 5,559 1% of registered voters in the district $10,440.00 6% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source
Florida 16th Congressional District Unaffiliated 5,559 1% of registered voters in the district $6,960.00 4% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan defeated David Shapiro in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 16 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Vern Buchanan
Vern Buchanan (R)
 
54.6
 
197,483
Image of David Shapiro
David Shapiro (D)
 
45.4
 
164,463

Total votes: 361,946
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

David Shapiro defeated Jan Schneider in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Shapiro
David Shapiro
 
54.7
 
34,807
Image of Jan Schneider
Jan Schneider
 
45.3
 
28,834

Total votes: 63,641
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
Image of Vern Buchanan
Vern Buchanan

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Jan Schneider (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Buchanan defeated James Satcher in the Republican primary, while Schneider defeated Brent King to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 59.8% 230,654
     Democratic Jan Schneider 40.2% 155,262
Total Votes 385,916
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 16 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 80.6% 53,706
James Satcher 19.4% 12,900
Total Votes 66,606
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. House, Florida District 16 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJan Schneider 76.2% 31,387
Brent King 23.8% 9,782
Total Votes 41,169
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 16th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Henry Lawrence (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVern Buchanan Incumbent 61.5% 169,126
     Democratic Henry Lawrence 38.4% 105,483
     Write-in Joe Newman 0.1% 220
Total Votes 274,829
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. This change was not due to COVID-19. This deadline was extended after the state's voter registration website crashed.
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  14. Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)