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Florida's 18th Congressional District elections, 2012
2014 →
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November 6, 2012 |
August 14, 2012 |
Patrick Murphy  |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen  |
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The 18th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Patrick Murphy defeated incumbent Allen West (R) in a race that was too close to call for more than one week after the election.[1][2]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Florida is one of 21 states to use a closed primary system.
Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 16, 2012, which was 29 days before the primary took place.[3] (Information about registering to vote)
- See also: Florida elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), who was first elected in 1988. Ros-Lehtinen sought re-election in the 27th District
This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Florida's 18th Congressional District is located in eastern Florida and includes St. Lucie and Martin counties, and part of Palm Beach county.[4]
Candidates
General election candidates
- Patrick Murphy
- Allen West
- Marilyn Davis Holloman (Write in candidate)
August 14, 2012, primary results
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Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Murphy |
50.3% | 166,257 | |
| Republican | Allen West Incumbent | 49.7% | 164,353 | |
| Write-In | Marilyn Davis Holloman | 0% | 55 | |
| Total Votes | 330,665 | |||
| Source: Florida Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Allen West Incumbent |
74.4% | 45,761 |
| Robert Crowder | 25.6% | 15,744 |
| Total Votes | 61,505 | |
Race background
Competitiveness
Florida's 18th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[10]
Incumbent Allen West was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans increase their majority in 2012.[11]
Blue vs. Red
Possible race ratings are:
Solid Democratic
Likely Democratic
Lean DemocraticTossup
Lean Republican
Likely Republican
Solid Republican
Florida's 18th District is a leaning Republican district.
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for Florida's 18th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races.[12]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[13] | |
|---|---|
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Democratic Toss Ups: Republican Toss Ups: | |
In June 2012, Sabato's Crystal Ball rated Florida's 18th as a leaning Republican district.[14]
Florida's 18th was also considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings.[15]
Polls
Patrick Murphy V. Allen West
| Patrick Murphy V. Allen West | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Patrick Murphy | Allen West | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (October 25-26, 2012) | 48% | 47% | 5% | +/-3.7 | 631 | ||||||||||||||
| Frederick Polls (October 17, 2012) | 47% | 47% | 6% | +/-5.3 | 333 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Florida
Prior to redistricting the 18th District included portions of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The Miami-Dade section included most of the city of Miami, the South Beach section of Miami Beach, and many of the southern Miami suburbs, including Coral Gables and Coral Terrace. The Monroe County section of the district included all of the Florida Keys.
The 18th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district was composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[16][17]
- 66 percent from the 16th congressional district
- 2 percent from the 19th Congressional District
- 24 percent from the 22nd Congressional District
- 7 percent from the 23rd Congressional District
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Florida's 18th District's partisanship was unaffected by redistricting.[18]
- 2012: 48D / 52R
- 2010: 48D / 52R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Florida's 18th Congressional District has a PVI of R+1, which is the 229th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 51-49 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[19]
Campaign donors
2012
Allen B. West announced that he raised over $4 million during the 3rd quarter of the year, leaving him with over $3 million cash on hand. He raised over $14.5 million over the course of the election cycle. Patrick Murphy raised $1.1 million in the 3rd quarter and had about $400,000 on hand for the rest of the race.[20]
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. She defeated Roland A. Banciella (D) in the general election.[21]
| U.S. House, Florida District 18 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Incumbent |
68.9% | 102,360 | |
| Democratic | Rolando A. Banciella | 31.1% | 46,235 | |
| Total Votes | 148,595 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in Florida, 2012
External links
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's Campaign Website
- Patrick Murphy's Campaign Website
- Allen West's Campaign Website
- Updated Florida Congressional Districts List
- Florida 2012 Redistricting Map
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "Allen West falls further behind," accessed November 18, 2012
- ↑ ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ Florida Department of State, "Register to Vote," accessed April 25, 2012
- ↑ Florida 2012 Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed July 5, 2012
- ↑ The Palm Beach Post News "Patrick Murphy switches to District 22, will challenge GOP firebrand West for Congress" accessed February 14, 2012
- ↑ Palm Beach Post "Frankel No Longer Running for Congress Against West" accessed May 6, 2012
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedSOS - ↑ 8.0 8.1 AP Results "U.S. House Results" accessed August 14, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post "Rep. Allen West to seek re-election in new district" accessed February 14, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ Center for Politics, "2012 House Ratings," Updated June 27, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Florida's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Florida," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ National Journal, "West Raises Big, Spends Big," October 2, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
