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Florida's 26th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3[2]
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Florida's 26th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 4, 2018 |
| Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Carlos Curbelo (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th Florida elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
For more on related elections, please see:
- Florida's 26th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
- Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in Florida, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in Florida, 2018
Campaign updates
- March 26, 2018: NewDemPAC added Murcarsel-Powell to its watch list, contributing $1,000 to her campaign and indicating potential for a future endorsement.[3]
- March 22, 2018: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed Mucarsel-Powell.[4]
Candidates and election results
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated Demetries Grimes in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26 on August 28, 2018.
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell  | 63.5 | 21,002 |
 | Demetries Grimes | 36.5 | 12,098 | |
| Total votes: 33,100 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ricky Junquera (D)
- Steven Machat (D)
- Steve Smith (D)
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Florida's 26th Congressional District the 165th most Democratic nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.20. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.20 points toward that party.[6]
Endorsements
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Campaign strategies and tactics
Campaign advertisements
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Support
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Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[7]
Democrats
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[8] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Florida.
- Republicans held 16 of 27 U.S. House seats in Florida.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held six out of nine state executive positions. The other three positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Florida was Republican Rick Scott. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Florida State Legislature. They had a 22-16 majority in the state Senate and a 75-41 majority in the state House.
Trifecta status
- Florida was under Republican trifecta control since the governor was a Republican and both chambers of the Florida State Legislature were under Republican control.
2018 elections
- See also: Florida elections, 2018
Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 27 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Three other state executive offices
- 20 out of 40 state Senate seats
- 120 state House seats
- Four of seven state Supreme Court seats
- Municipal elections in Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Orange, and Pinellas counties and the city of Jacksonville
Demographics
| Demographic data for Florida | ||
|---|---|---|
| Florida | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 20,244,914 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 53,625 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 76% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 16.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.4% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 23.7% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86.9% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,507 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 19.8% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[13][14]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
49.0% | Hillary Clinton |
47.8% | 1.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
50.0% | Mitt Romney |
49.1% | 0.9% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
51.0% | John McCain |
48.2% | 2.8% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
52.10% | John Kerry |
47.09% | 5.01% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
48.847% | Al Gore |
48.838% | 0.009% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Marco Rubio |
52.0% | Patrick Murphy |
44.3% | 7.7% |
| 2012 | Bill Nelson |
55.2% | Connie Mack |
42.2% | 13.0% |
| 2010 | Marco Rubio |
48.9% |  Charlie Crist |
29.7% | 19.2% |
| 2006 | Bill Nelson |
60.3% | Katherine Harris |
38.1% | 22.2% |
| 2004 | Mel Martinez |
49.4% | Betty Castor |
48.3% | 1.1% |
| 2000 | Bill Nelson |
51.0% | Bill McCollum |
46.2% | 4.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.
| Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera |
48.1% | Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein |
47.1% | 1% |
| 2010 | Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll |
48.9% | Alex Sink/Rod Smith |
47.7% | 1.2% |
| 2006 | Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp |
52.2% | Jim Davis/Daryl Jones |
45.1% | 7.1% |
| 2002 | Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan |
56.0% | Bill McBride/Tom Rossin |
43.2% | 12.8% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2014 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2012 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2010 | 19 |
76.0% | 6 |
24.0% | R+13 |
| 2008 | 15 |
60.0% | 10 |
40.0% | R+5 |
| 2006 | 16 |
64.0% | 9 |
36.0% | R+7 |
| 2004 | 18 |
66.7% | 7 |
33.3% | R+11 |
| 2002 | 17 |
66.7% | 8 |
33.3% | R+9 |
| 2000 | 15 |
57.9% | 8 |
42.1% | R+7 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2018
- United States House elections in Florida (August 28, 2018 Democratic primaries)
- Florida's 26th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Roll Call, "https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/new-democrats-pac-adds-16-candidates-watch-list," March 28, 2018
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 CPC PAC, "Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC Announces Slate of House Endorsements," March 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
- ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
