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Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Florida's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Neal Dunn (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 2nd Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th
Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Neal Dunn won election in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 24, 2020
August 18, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Neal Dunn, who was first elected in 2016.

Florida's 2nd Congressional District consists of the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle. It includes the counties of Washington, Jackson, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun, Liberty, Wakulla, Taylor, Lafayette, Suwannee, Gilchrist, Dixie, and Levy and parts of Marion, Leon, Jefferson, Holmes, and Columbia counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Florida's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 32 0
Republican candidate Republican Party 67 97.9
Difference 35 97.9

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter registration deadline was extended to October 6, 2020.[2]

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 2

Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Kim O'Connor in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Neal Dunn
Neal Dunn (R)
 
97.9
 
305,337
Image of Kim O'Connor
Kim O'Connor (No Party Affiliation) (Write-in)
 
2.1
 
6,662

Total votes: 311,999
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Neal Dunn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+18, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 2nd Congressional District the 48th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Neal Dunn Republican Party $672,821 $656,913 $402,063 As of December 31, 2020
Kim O'Connor No Party Affiliation $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Florida in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Florida 2nd Congressional District Qualified party 4,824 1% of registered voters in the district $10,440.00 6% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source
Florida 2nd Congressional District Unaffiliated 4,824 1% of registered voters in the district $6,960.00 4% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 2

Incumbent Neal Dunn defeated Bob Rackleff in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Neal Dunn
Neal Dunn (R)
 
67.4
 
199,335
Image of Bob Rackleff
Bob Rackleff (D) Candidate Connection
 
32.6
 
96,233

Total votes: 295,568
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2

Bob Rackleff defeated Brandon Scott Peters in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 2 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Rackleff
Bob Rackleff Candidate Connection
 
50.8
 
29,395
Image of Brandon Scott Peters
Brandon Scott Peters
 
49.2
 
28,483

Total votes: 57,878
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2

Incumbent Neal Dunn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 2 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
Image of Neal Dunn
Neal Dunn

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Florida's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Due to redistricting, this district flipped from safely Democratic to safely Republican. Incumbent Gwen Graham (D) did not seek re-election in 2016. Neal Dunn (R) defeated Walter Dartland (D), Rob Lapham (L), and Antoine Edward Roberts (Write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Dunn defeated Mary Thomas and Ken Sukhia to win the Republican nomination, while Dartland defeated Steve Crapps in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Florida District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngNeal Dunn 67.3% 231,163
     Democratic Walter Dartland 29.9% 102,801
     Libertarian Rob Lapham 2.7% 9,395
     N/A Write-in 0% 3
Total Votes 343,362
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngNeal Dunn 41.4% 33,886
Mary Thomas 39.3% 32,178
Ken Sukhia 19.3% 15,826
Total Votes 81,890
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. House, Florida District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Dartland 50.1% 30,115
Steve Crapps 49.9% 29,982
Total Votes 60,097
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Gwen Graham (D) defeated incumbent Steve Southerland (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGwen Graham 50.5% 126,096
     Republican Steve Southerland Incumbent 49.3% 123,262
     Write-in Luther Lee 0.2% 422
Total Votes 249,780
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. United States Census Bureau, "Congressional Districts of the 116th Congress of the United States," accessed March 14, 2020
  2. This change was not due to COVID-19. This deadline was extended after the state's voter registration website crashed.
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  14. Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)