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Florida's 5th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Florida's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Al Lawson (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+12
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 5th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Rep. Al Lawson (D) won the Democratic primary for Florida's 5th Congressional District on August 28, 2018, fending off a well-financed challenge from former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D).

Throughout the primary, the candidates were criticized by other Democrats and each other for not being progressive enough. Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) Chair Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) chastised Lawson for being the only caucus member to applaud President Donald Trump at the 2018 State of the Union address when he announced black unemployment was down. Brown used the moment in a negative ad, calling Lawson "Trump's favorite Democrat."[3] He also criticized Lawson for supporting Florida's stand your ground law related to the use of deadly force.[4]

Lawson criticized Brown's record as mayor of Jacksonville.[5] Brown identified as a conservative Democrat in 2015 and declined to take a position in 2012 on expanding the city's human rights ordinance to cover sexual orientation.[6][7]

Lawson had served in public office for three decades at the state and federal level. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and 38 CBC members endorsed him.[8]

Brown earned a high-profile endorsement from the Florida AFL-CIO in June. Jacksonville’s Fraternal Order of Police passed over Brown, however, supporting Lawson over the local candidate.[9]

When asked what was the top issue he wanted to address if elected to the 116th Congress, Lawson said food insecurity. Brown said he wanted to build trust and accountability to empower investment in urban and rural communities.[10]

Since both candidates had bases of support in different parts of the district, geography and voter turnout played a role in the race. Brown was known in the urban eastside of the district, while Lawson had support in the Tallahassee-Gadsden area.[11]

Brown outraised Lawson in the second quarter of 2018, bringing in $165,000 to Lawson's $137,000.[12] He raised another $56,000 in the pre-primary filing period; Lawson raised $48,000.[13]

This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.

See also: United States House elections in Florida (August 28, 2018 Democratic primaries) and United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018


Election results

Incumbent Alfred Lawson defeated Alvin Brown in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 5 on August 28, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 5

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Alfred Lawson
Alfred Lawson
 
60.3
 
53,990
Image of Alvin Brown
Alvin Brown
 
39.7
 
35,584

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 89,574
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

Democratic Party Al Lawson

Al Lawson.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Lawson was first elected to the U.S. House in 2016. He previously served in the state legislature for nearly three decades, as a member of the Florida House of Representatives and the Florida State Senate. He earned a master's degree in public administration from Florida State University.[14]

On his campaign website, Lawson identified support for the Children’s Health Insurance Program, establishing a small business tax credit for veteran entrepreneurs, and opposition to Florida’s Firearm Preemption Law as some of his major policy positions.[15]

Democratic Party Alvin Brown

Alvin Brown.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Brown was elected mayor of Jacksonville in 2010, becoming the first Democratic mayor in the city in two decades. He was a senior member of the White House leadership team during the Clinton administration and advised on issues of community revitalization, business development, and affordable housing. Brown also served as the president of the Willie Gray Classic and executive director of the Bush/Clinton Katrina Interfaith Fund.[16]

Brown listed support for the Affordable Care Act, investment in infrastructure, and increasing teachers' salaries as some of his policy priorities on his campaign website.[17]

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Debates and forums

Tallahassee Democrat editorial board meeting

Brown and Lawson met with the editorial board of the Tallahassee Democrat in August 2018, where they discussed healthcare, economic development, restoring the Everglades, and the Trump administration.[11]

Endorsements

Ballotpedia tracks endorsements by organizations and elected officials. We located the following endorsements in this race. To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.

Primary election endorsements
Endorsement Democratic Party Alvin Brown Democratic Party Al Lawson
Elected officials
Rep. Emanuel Cleaver[18] ✔
Rep. Cedric Richmond[18] ✔
Rep. Jim Clyburn[18] ✔
Rep. Barbara Lee[18] ✔
Rep. G.K. Butterfield[18] ✔
Rep. Val Demings[18] ✔
Rep. Frederica Wilson[18] ✔
Rep. Keith Ellison[18] ✔
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries[18] ✔
Rep. Elijah Cummings[18] ✔
Rep. Marcia Fudge[18] ✔
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi[19] ✔
Former Gov. Martin O'Malley[20] ✔
Organizations
Florida AFL-CIO[21] ✔
Florida Education Association [22] ✔
Duval Teachers United[22] ✔
Newspapers
The Florida Times-Union[23] ✔


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Alfred Lawson Democratic Party $679,133 $716,894 $14,672 As of December 31, 2018
Alvin Brown Democratic Party $450,694 $447,745 $2,949 As of December 31, 2018
Virginia Fuller Republican Party $40,564 $40,413 $151 As of January 30, 2019

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 5th Congressional District, Democratic primary
Poll Brown LawsonUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory
August 24-25, 2018		 29%48%23%+/-N/A402
St. Pete Polls
August 11-12, 2018		 28%50%23%+/-4.6445
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Florida's 5th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+12, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Florida's 5th Congressional District the 108th most Democratic nationally.[24]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[25]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[26][27]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[28][29]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ YouTube, "Trump's Favorite Democrat," February 16, 2018
  4. ↑ News 4 Jax, "Lawson tries to fend off former Jacksonville mayor," August 23, 2018
  5. ↑ Florida Politics, "Gloves off: Alvin Brown, Al Lawson bash each other in heated interview," August 2, 2018
  6. ↑ Florida Times-Union, "City leaders’ silence on HRO leaves bitter taste for LGBT advocates," July 11, 2016
  7. ↑ Florida Politics, "Historic controversies haunt Alvin Brown on Jacksonville radio hit," July 31, 2018
  8. ↑ Al Lawson, "38 Congressional Black Caucus Members Endorse Al Lawson for Re-election," August 5, 2018
  9. ↑ Florida Politics, "AFL-CIO ‘playing politics’ with Alvin Brown endorsement, claims Al Lawson camp," June 13, 2018
  10. ↑ Tallahassee Democrat, "Voter's guide to the Congressional District 5 Democratic Primary: Brown versus Lawson," August 10, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Tallahassee Democrat, "Geography is destiny in U.S. House, District 5, race | Our opinion," August 18, 2018
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections 2Q 2018 House fundraising reports roundup," July 17, 2018
  13. ↑ Politico, "Preprimary report roundup for big AZ, FL House races," August 17, 2018
  14. ↑ Congressman Al Lawson, "About," accessed August 9, 2018
  15. ↑ Al Lawson, "Issues," accessed August 9, 2018
  16. ↑ Alvin for Congress, "About Alvin," accessed August 9, 2018
  17. ↑ Alvin for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 9, 2018
  18. ↑ 18.00 18.01 18.02 18.03 18.04 18.05 18.06 18.07 18.08 18.09 18.10 Florida Politics, "37 Congressional Black Caucus members endorse Al Lawson’s reelection, as Alvin Brown reels," August 7, 2018
  19. ↑ Al Lawson, "Nancy Pelosi Endorses U.S. Rep Al Lawson," August 9, 2018
  20. ↑ Alvin for Congress, "Gov. Martin O’Malley Endorses Alvin Brown for Congress," August 14, 2018
  21. ↑ Florida Politics, "AFL-CIO ‘playing politics’ with Alvin Brown endorsement, claims Al Lawson camp," June 13, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Alvin for Congress, "Educators Endorse Alvin Brown for Congress," August 6, 2018
  23. ↑ The Florida Times-Union, "Endorsement: In a close call, Lawson deserves nod over Brown," August 14, 2018
  24. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  25. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  26. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  27. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
  28. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  29. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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