Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

Florida's 6th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2020 →
← 2016
Florida's 6th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Ron DeSantis (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+7
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 6th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Businessman Michael Waltz (R) defeated businessman John Ward (R) and former state Rep. Fred Costello (R) in the August 28 primary. Waltz received 42.4 percent of the vote to Ward's 30.4 percent and Costello's 27.2 percent. The incumbent, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R), ran for governor.

Waltz ran on his experience as a veteran and a former Pentagon and White House staffer. He emphasized his national security background, as well as his plan to bring commercial space exploration to Volusia County.[3] His endorsers included Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry (R). The American Patriots PAC, a political action committee whose only other activity in 2018's primaries was on behalf of Texas congressional candidate Daniel Crenshaw (R), supported Waltz.

Costello (R) sought the GOP nomination in 2012 and 2016, but DeSantis defeated him in both primaries. Costello said he knew the district better than his opponents did, referring to them as carpetbaggers.[4]

The National Rifle Association rescinded its endorsement of Costello after he said he would have voted in favor of SB 7026, a bill raising the age limit for firearms purchases to 21 and implementing a mandatory three-day waiting period on the purchase of rifles and shotguns.[5]

Ward also ran on his military service and private sector experience. He supported reducing corporate tax rates, a steady interest rate, and rolling back Obama-era regulations.[6]

Ward was criticized after stating at an April 2018 event that those who had recently arrived from Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria should not be permitted to register to vote in Florida. He later reversed his stance.[7]



For more on related elections, please see:


Election results

Michael Waltz defeated John Ward and Fred Costello in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 6 on August 28, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 6

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Waltz
Michael Waltz
 
42.4
 
32,916
Image of John Ward
John Ward
 
30.4
 
23,593
Image of Fred Costello
Fred Costello
 
27.2
 
21,074

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 77,583
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Republican Party Fred Costello

Fred Costello FL 2018.jpg


Campaign website Facebook Twitter Fred Costello was a former member of the Florida House of Representatives, having been elected to two two-year terms in 2010 and 2014. He had previously served in the municipal government of Ormond, Florida, holding a seat on the city commission between 1999 and 2002 and serving as mayor from 2002 until 2010. He was the owner and operator of a dentistry practice.[8] Costello previously ran for the District 6 seat in 2012 and 2016 but was defeated by Ron DeSantis (R) in both Republican primaries.

In his January 2018 announcement that he would seek the seat, Costello referenced his time spent in the district as well as his status as a veteran and experience in government and business.[9] Costello's campaign website also emphasized his role in the local community, saying "Everybody in CD6 knows and loves FRED. He doesn't need the last name so much, just FRED to his friends, his patients his colleagues, his partners, his neighbors, his church family, his fellow vets, volunteers and community leaders."[10]

Among Costello's endorsers were Attorney General Pam Bondi (R) and four members of the state House.

Republican Party Michael Waltz

Michael Waltz FL 2018.jpg


Campaign website Facebook Twitter Michael Waltz was a businessman, Fox News contributor, U.S. Army veteran, and former White House and Pentagon staffer under the George W. Bush (R) administration. At the time of the 2018 election, he had not previously sought elected office.[11]

In his January 2018 announcement that he would run for the nomination, Waltz emphasized his military service, business experience, and experience working in national security.[12] Waltz's campaign website gave top billing to his national security policy as well as his economic plans, which included a plan to bring commercial space exploration ventures to Volusia County.[13]

Waltz's endorsers included Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry (R).

Republican Party John Ward

John Ward FL 2018.jpg


Campaign website Facebook Twitter John Ward was an investor and U.S. Navy veteran with experience in counter-narcotics and humanitarian operations. At the time of the 2018 election, he had not previously sought elected office.[14]

In his October 2017 campaign kickoff, Ward emphasized his background and economic priorities: "I'm a Ronald Reagan Republican and I’m running for Congress because I believe that Washington needs more ‘Get-It-Done Outsiders’ who will fight for individual liberties and protect our freedoms, so that this generation and future generations can live in peace, prosperity, and liberty."[15] Ward's campaign website gave top billing to his emphasis on support for the nomination of judges who interpret the Constitution as written and his opposition to abortion.[16]


Endorsements

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Costello Waltz Ward
Individuals
State Sen. Dennis Baxley (R)[17] ✔
State Rep. Tom Leek (R)[17] ✔
State Rep. David Santiago (R)[17] ✔
Delta Mayor John Masiarczyk[17] ✔
Flagler County Commissioner Nate McLaughlin[17] ✔
Former Palm Coast Mayor John Netts[17] ✔
State Rep. Larry Metz (R)[17] ✔
Attorney General Pam Bondi (R)[18] ✔
Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry (R)[19] ✔

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Stephen Sevigny Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Nancy Soderberg Democratic Party $3,242,549 $3,222,462 $20,087 As of December 31, 2018
John Upchurch Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Fred Costello Republican Party $288,014 $283,403 $4,736 As of October 31, 2018
Michael Waltz Republican Party $2,197,940 $2,146,379 $51,561 As of December 31, 2018
John Ward Republican Party $1,230,842 $1,227,903 $2,939 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

American Patriots PAC

The American Patriots PAC was a political action committee (PAC) which was established in 2018.[20] The organization spent $277,000 in opposition to the candidacy of John Ward (R). As of August 2018, the organization's website stated its support for Michael Waltz (R) over Ward.[21]

With Honor Fund

See also: With Honor Fund

With Honor Fund was a political action committee (PAC) with the stated objective of electing veterans to Congress as members of both major parties. The organization spent $363,692.98 on television and digital ads in support of Michael Waltz (R), according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.[22]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 6th Congressional District, Republican primary 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Fred Costello Michael WaltzJohn WardUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
St. Pete Polls
(August 10, 2018)		FloridaPolitics.com 16%40%21%23%+/-4.3528
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Michael Waltz

Support
"Patriot' - Waltz campaign ad, released May 22, 2018


Republican Party John Ward

Support
"American Made" - Ward campaign ad, released May 18, 2018
Oppose
"Closer Look" - American Patriots PAC ad, released August 6, 2018


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Likely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Likely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 6th Congressional District the 170th most Republican nationally.[23]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[24]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[25][26]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[27][28]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ Michael Waltz for Congres, "Home," accessed August 8, 2018
  4. ↑ Florida Politics, "‘Carpetbaggers’: Residency arguments play on both sides of CD 6 race," August 3, 2018
  5. ↑ Florida Politics, "It’s official: NRA yanks Fred Costello endorsement in CD 6," July 26, 2018
  6. ↑ John Ward for Congress, "About John," accessed August 9, 2018
  7. ↑ Politico, "Congressional candidate under fire for saying Puerto Rican evacuees shouldn't vote in Florida," May 22, 2018
  8. ↑ Fred Costello for Congress, "Fred Costello Bio," accessed August 28, 2018
  9. ↑ Florida Politics, "Fred Costello launching congressional campaign," January 2, 2018
  10. ↑ Fred Costello for Congress, "The Meaning of Fred," accessed August 28, 2018
  11. ↑ Michael Waltz for Congress, "Meet Michael," accessed August 28, 2018
  12. ↑ Washington Times, "Retired Lt. Col. Michael Waltz announces run for Congress," January 23, 2018
  13. ↑ Michael Waltz for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 28, 2018
  14. ↑ John Ward for Congress, "About John," accessed August 28, 2018
  15. ↑ Sunshine State News, "Conservative John Ward Jumps Into Race to Replace Ron DeSantis," October 12, 2017
  16. ↑ Ward for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 28, 2018
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 Costello for Congress, "Endorsements Page," accessed August 27, 2018
  18. ↑ Florida Politics, "Pam Bondi endorses Fred Costello for CD 6," June 18, 2018
  19. ↑ Florida Politics, "Lenny Curry backs Mike Waltz for Congress," May 21, 2018
  20. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Statement of Organization - American Patriots PAC," February 7, 2018
  21. ↑ American Patriot PAC, "Home," accessed August 13, 2018
  22. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Schedule E - Independent Expenditures," accessed August 20, 2018
  23. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  24. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  25. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  26. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
  27. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  28. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Florida%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election_(August_28,_2018_Republican_primary)&oldid=10217919"