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Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 7

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy (D)
 
57.7
 
183,113
Image of Mike Miller
Mike Miller (R)
 
42.3
 
134,285

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 317,398
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2020 →
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Florida's 7th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Stephanie Murphy (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): EVEN
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 7th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 7th Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Stephanie Murphy (D), who was first elected in 2016.

Murphy won this district by 3 points in 2016, and the National Republican Congressional Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.[3]

Described as a "battleground within a battleground" by Bloomberg because of gubernatorial and presidential races decided by one percentage point or less in recent years, the district was expected to be competitive.[4] In 2016, however, the district supported Hillary Clinton (D) by a margin of 7 points.[5]

Murphy had the fundraising advantage in the third quarter of 2017, with $314,000 raised and $701,000 in cash on hand. Businessman Scott Sturgill had the best quarter for Republicans in the race, raising $206,000 and reporting $177,000 in cash on hand.[6]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 7

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy defeated Mike Miller in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 7 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy (D)
 
57.7
 
183,113
Image of Mike Miller
Mike Miller (R)
 
42.3
 
134,285

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 317,398
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 7

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy defeated Chardo Richardson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 7 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy
 
86.2
 
49,060
Image of Chardo Richardson
Chardo Richardson
 
13.8
 
7,846

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 56,906
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7

Mike Miller defeated Scott Sturgill and Vennia Francois in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Miller
Mike Miller
 
53.9
 
30,629
Image of Scott Sturgill
Scott Sturgill
 
30.4
 
17,253
Image of Vennia Francois
Vennia Francois
 
15.7
 
8,950

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 56,832
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Florida's 7th Congressional District the 196th most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[8]

Race background

Florida's 7th District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[9]

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy was included as one of the initial members of the DCCC's Frontline Program in 2018.[10]

Endorsements

Mike Miller

  • Sen. Marco Rubio: "I’m proud to announce my support for Mike Miller for Congress today. Jeanette and I have known Mike & Nora for many years, and like us, they are raising their children and serving in public office, all while balancing the same challenges Florida families do every day. Mike is a tireless advocate for Central Florida and will bring his conservative values to Washington and give me a great partner to work with in the Congress."[11]
  • Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani in a tweet: "Just met with @Mike_Miller_FL who is a great candidate in Florida CD 7. His opponent voted against major tax reduction. She will raise your taxes. He will support the lowest taxes possible. Support Miller in FL. I do."[12]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Stephanie Murphy Democratic Party $3,229,992 $3,156,144 $85,873 As of December 31, 2018
Mike Miller Republican Party $1,137,564 $1,103,414 $34,150 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 7th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent John Mica (R) sought re-election in 2016. He was defeated by Stephanie Murphy (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mica defeated Mark Busch in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Florida District 7 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngStephanie Murphy 51.5% 182,039
     Republican John Mica Incumbent 48.5% 171,583
     N/A Write-in 0% 33
Total Votes 353,655
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 7 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Mica Incumbent 77.2% 38,528
Mark Busch 22.8% 11,407
Total Votes 49,935
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 7th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 7th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Mica (R) defeated Wesley Neuman (D) and Al Krulick (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 7 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Mica Incumbent 63.6% 144,474
     Democratic Wesley Neuman 32.1% 73,011
     Independent Al Krulick 4.3% 9,679
Total Votes 227,164
Source: Florida Division of Elections

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[17][18]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle," February 8, 2017
  4. ↑ Bloomberg, "Angry Puerto Ricans Flocking to Florida Could Boost Democrats," October 16, 2017
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 10, 2017
  6. ↑ Politico, "House Q3 FEC Reports," accessed November 10, 2017
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  10. ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018," March 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Florida Politics, "Marco Rubio endorses Mike Miller in CD 7," August 14, 2017
  12. ↑ Orlando Sun, "Rudy Giuliani endorses Mike Miller for Congress," September 13, 2018
  13. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  17. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  18. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
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Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
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Neal Dunn (R)
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Anna Luna (R)
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