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Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Florida's 7th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Stephanie Murphy (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 7th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 7th Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy won election in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 7.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 24, 2020
August 18, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Stephanie Murphy, who was first elected in 2016.

Florida's 7th Congressional District is located in eastern Florida and includes parts of Seminole, Orange and Volusia counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Florida's 7th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 54.6 55.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 44.2 43.2
Difference 10.4 12.1

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter registration deadline was extended to October 6, 2020.[2]

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 7

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy defeated Leo Valentin and William Garlington in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 7 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy (D)
 
55.3
 
224,946
Image of Leo Valentin
Leo Valentin (R)
 
43.2
 
175,750
Image of William Garlington
William Garlington (No Party Affiliation) Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
5,753

Total votes: 406,449
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Stephanie Murphy advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 7.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7

Leo Valentin defeated Richard Goble and Mike Zhao in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7 on August 18, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Leo Valentin
Leo Valentin
 
38.6
 
19,841
Image of Richard Goble
Richard Goble Candidate Connection
 
37.4
 
19,187
Image of Mike Zhao
Mike Zhao Candidate Connection
 
24.0
 
12,330

Total votes: 51,358
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Florida's 7th Congressional District the 196th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Stephanie Murphy Democratic Party $3,154,665 $1,828,522 $1,412,017 As of December 31, 2020
Leo Valentin Republican Party $1,045,426 $1,028,316 $17,110 As of December 31, 2020
William Garlington No Party Affiliation $11,000 $0 $11,000 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 7th Congressional District candidates in Florida in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Florida 7th Congressional District Qualified party 4,952 1% of registered voters in the district $10,440.00 6% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source
Florida 7th Congressional District Unaffiliated 4,952 1% of registered voters in the district $6,960.00 4% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 7

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy defeated Mike Miller in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 7 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy (D)
 
57.7
 
183,113
Image of Mike Miller
Mike Miller (R)
 
42.3
 
134,285

Total votes: 317,398
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 7

Incumbent Stephanie Murphy defeated Chardo Richardson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 7 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Stephanie Murphy
Stephanie Murphy
 
86.2
 
49,060
Image of Chardo Richardson
Chardo Richardson
 
13.8
 
7,846

Total votes: 56,906
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7

Mike Miller defeated Scott Sturgill and Vennia Francois in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 7 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mike Miller
Mike Miller
 
53.9
 
30,629
Image of Scott Sturgill
Scott Sturgill
 
30.4
 
17,253
Image of Vennia Francois
Vennia Francois
 
15.7
 
8,950

Total votes: 56,832
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Florida's 7th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 7th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent John Mica (R) sought re-election in 2016. He was defeated by Stephanie Murphy (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mica defeated Mark Busch in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Florida District 7 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngStephanie Murphy 51.5% 182,039
     Republican John Mica Incumbent 48.5% 171,583
     N/A Write-in 0% 33
Total Votes 353,655
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 7 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Mica Incumbent 77.2% 38,528
Mark Busch 22.8% 11,407
Total Votes 49,935
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 7th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 7th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Mica (R) defeated Wesley Neuman (D) and Al Krulick (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 7 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Mica Incumbent 63.6% 144,474
     Democratic Wesley Neuman 32.1% 73,011
     Independent Al Krulick 4.3% 9,679
Total Votes 227,164
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. This change was not due to COVID-19. This deadline was extended after the state's voter registration website crashed.
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  14. Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
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Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
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District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
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Anna Luna (R)
District 14
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District 17
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District 19
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Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)