Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Republican primary)

2026 → ← 2022
Florida's 15th Congressional District
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 26, 2024
Primary: August 20, 2024 General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
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A Republican Party primary took place on August 20, 2024, in Florida's 15th Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 5, 2024.

Incumbent Laurel Lee advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15.

All 435 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies. As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 58.5%-41.5%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 51.0%-47.9%.

Candidate filing deadline	Primary election	General election
April 26, 2024	August 20, 2024	November 5, 2024

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Florida utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Florida's 15th Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

• Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Democratic primary)
• Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2024

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15

Incumbent Laurel Lee defeated James Judge and Jennifer Barbosa in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15 on August 20, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Laurel Lee	72.3	28,571
		James Judge	18.1	7,137
		Jennifer Barbosa	9.6	3,809

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 39,517
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Brian Perras (R)

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Jennifer Barbosa

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Jennifer Barbosa, a proud Floridian and constitutional conservative, has a clear vision for Florida's 15th Congressional District. Committed to putting Americans first, she believes that Congress must secure America's borders before sending additional tax dollars to foreign countries. She is dedicated to promoting economic growth, energy independence, and safeguarding our individual liberties. Jennifer has voted for President Donald Trump in every election since the 2016 Primary and will continue supporting him throughout the 2024 campaign and beyond because America and her allies are better off with Donald Trump as President. She is running to replace Laurel Lee in FL-15, which includes parts of Tampa, Lakeland, and Brandon, Zephyrhills, Plant City, Temple Terrace, Lutz, Wesley Chapel, Mango, Dover, Thonotosassa and more."

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Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

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Border Security

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Energy Independence

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Make Election Day a national holiday

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 15 in 2024.

James Judge

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "

James Patrick Judge Jr. is a Christian, husband, businessman and Tampa Bay area native who graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida.

He is a decorated war veteran, having proudly served in the United States Coast Guard in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Additionally, James served in Kabul, Afghanistan as a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense from 2010 until 2011.

James now owns Judge Public Relations, a Tampa-based public relations, marketing and consulting firm.

He is running to represent Florida’s 12th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. James believes in term-limits, a balanced budget, limited federal government and returning America to her foundational values.

James and his wife Danielle live on a small ranch in Dade City, Florida with their five dogs, three cats, chickens, cows, goats and horses.

James proudly belongs to and supports the American Legion, Association of the United States Army, Coastal Conservation Association, National Rifle Association, Christian Chamber of Commerce Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce, Tampa Bay Young Republicans, Tampa Bay History Center, Tampa Propeller Club and Veterans of Foreign Wars.

James and Danielle are also long-time, active members at Idlewild Baptist Church in Tampa."

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Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

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I am a Christian, conservative, U.S. military war veteran that wants less federal government and more freedom.

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We must balance the budget. We must incentivize the creation of small businesses. We must work to reduce interest rates. We must develop a plan to pay off our $33 trillion in debt and more than $210 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

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We need to secure the border by finishing the wall and requiring law enforcement and prosecutors to enforce existing laws. We should put a complete moratorium on immigration until we can fix our broken immigration system. We need to enforce the laws we have and strengthen our border security. If people entered our country illegally, failed to report to an immigration hearing or have overstayed their visas, there must be harsh consequences. Once we secure the border and begin enforcing the law, we can consider restarting legal immigration. For those who wish to come here, it should be contingent upon their willingness to assimilate, learn English, American history and be taught our foundational values.

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We need to secure the border by finishing the wall and requiring law enforcement and prosecutors to enforce existing laws. We should put a complete moratorium on immigration until we can fix our broken immigration system. We need to enforce the laws we have and strengthen our border security. If people entered our country illegally, failed to report to an immigration hearing or have overstayed their visas, there must be harsh consequences. Once we secure the border and begin enforcing the law, we can consider restarting legal immigration. For those who wish to come here, it should be contingent upon their willingness to assimilate, learn English, American history and be taught our foundational values.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 15 in 2024.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Florida

Election information in Florida: Aug. 20, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

• In-person: July 22, 2024
• By mail: Received by July 22, 2024
• Online: July 22, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

• In-person: Aug. 8, 2024
• By mail: Received by Aug. 8, 2024
• Online: Aug. 8, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

• In-person: Aug. 20, 2024
• By mail: Received by Aug. 20, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Aug. 10, 2024 to Aug. 17, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (EST)

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Laurel Lee	Republican Party	$2,162,710	$1,815,179	$434,771	As of December 31, 2024
Jennifer Barbosa	Republican Party	$37,657	$37,657	$0	As of December 31, 2024
James Judge	Republican Party	$86,135	$88,019	$0	As of September 11, 2024
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

• District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
• Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
• Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
• State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

• District map
• Competitiveness
• Presidential elections
• State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Florida.

Florida U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	28	28	1	101	56	9	21	53.6%	15	55.6%
2022	28	28	6	151	56	14	24	67.9%	17	73.9%
2020	27	27	2	114	54	10	19	53.7%	10	40.0%
2018	27	27	4	104	54	19	12	57.4%	11	47.8%
2016	27	27	7	100	54	11	13	44.4%	9	47.4%
2014	27	27	0	75	54	5	10	27.8%	8	29.6%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Florida in 2024. Information below was calculated on May 7, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

One hundred three candidates ran for Florida’s 28 U.S. House districts, including 42 Democrats and 61 Republicans. That’s 3.68 candidates per district, less than in the previous three election cycles. There were 5.43 candidates per district in 2022, 4.22 candidates per district in 2020, and 3.86 in 2018.

The 8th Congressional District was the only open district, meaning no incumbents filed to run. That’s the fewest open seats in Florida since 2014 when no seats were open. Incumbent Rep. Bill Posey (R-8th) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.

Seven candidates—incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-23rd) and six Republicans—ran for the 23rd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.

Thirty primaries—nine Democratic and 21 Republican—were contested in 2024. Thirty-eight primaries were contested in 2022, 29 primaries were contested in 2020, and 31 primaries were contested in 2018.

Fifteen incumbents—two Democrats and 13 Republicans—were in contested primaries in Florida in 2024. That’s less than the 17 incumbents in contested primaries in 2022 but more than the 10 incumbents in contested primaries in 2020.

The 20th Congressional District is guaranteed to Democrats because no Republicans will appear on the ballot. Democrats filed to run in every congressional district, meaning none are guaranteed to Republicans.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 15th the 202nd most Republican district nationally.

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Florida's 15th based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
47.9%	51.0%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district. The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
44.4	54.2	D+9.8

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Florida, 2020

Florida presidential election results (1900-2020)

• 17 Democratic wins
• 14 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	D	D	R	R

See also: Party control of Florida state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Florida's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Florida
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	0	8	8
Republican	2	20	22
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	28	30

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Florida's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Florida, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Ron DeSantis
Lieutenant Governor	Jeanette Nuñez
Secretary of State	Cord Byrd
Attorney General	Ashley B. Moody

State legislature

Florida State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	12
	Republican Party	28
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		40

Florida House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	36
	Republican Party	84
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		120

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-five years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	I	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Florida in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Florida	U.S. House	Ballot-qualified party	5,181	$10,440.00	4/26/2024	Source
Florida	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	5,181	$6,960.00	4/26/2024	Source

See also

• Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Democratic primary)
• Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2024
• United States House elections in Florida, 2024 (August 20 Democratic primaries)
• United States House elections in Florida, 2024 (August 20 Republican primaries)
• United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2024
• United States House Republican Party primaries, 2024
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
• U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024

External links

Suggest a link

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ashley Moody (R)

Rick Scott (R)

Representatives

District 1

Jimmy Patronis (R)

District 2

Neal Dunn (R)

District 3

Kat Cammack (R)

District 4

Aaron Bean (R)

District 5

John Rutherford (R)

District 6

Randy Fine (R)

District 7

Cory Mills (R)

District 8

Mike Haridopolos (R)

District 9

Darren Soto (D)

District 10

Maxwell Frost (D)

District 11

Daniel Webster (R)

District 12

Gus Bilirakis (R)

District 13

Anna Luna (R)

District 14

Kathy Castor (D)

District 15

Laurel Lee (R)

District 16

Vern Buchanan (R)

District 17

Greg Steube (R)

District 18

Scott Franklin (R)

District 19

Byron Donalds (R)

District 20

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)

District 21

Brian Mast (R)

District 22

Lois Frankel (D)

District 23

Jared Moskowitz (D)

District 24

Frederica Wilson (D)

District 25

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

District 26

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

District 27

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

District 28

Carlos Gimenez (R)

Republican Party (22)

Democratic Party (8)

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