Florida State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Florida Senate Elections | |
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| Primary | August 30, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
The Florida State Senate accepted in January 2016 a new district map that provided an opportunity for Democrats to gain seats. Democrats gained one seat after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Florida State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 30, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 24, 2016.
The 2016 district map for the Florida State Senate was created in adherence to the state’s anti-gerrymandering law.[1] The districts, now split almost evenly between the parties, favor Democrats slightly; in a hypothetical scenario in which Florida's 2012 presidential votes were cast in these new districts, President Barack Obama won 21 out of 40 districts.[2][3]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Florida State Senate:
| Florida State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 14 | 15 | |
| Republican Party | 26 | 25 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Retired incumbents
Eighteen incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Don Gaetz |  Republican |
Senate District 1 |
| Greg Evers | Republican |
Senate District 2 |
| Charles Dean | Republican |
Senate District 5 |
| Alan Hays | Republican |
Senate District 11 |
| Geraldine Thompson |  Democratic |
Senate District 12 |
| Andy Gardiner | Republican |
Senate District 13 |
| Darren Soto | Democratic |
Senate District 14 |
| Thad Altman | Republican |
Senate District 16 |
| John Legg | Republican |
Senate District 17 |
| Arthenia Joyner | Democratic |
Senate District 19 |
| Garrett Richter | Republican |
Senate District 23 |
| Joseph Abruzzo | Democratic |
Senate District 25 |
| Nancy Detert | Republican |
Senate District 28 |
| Joseph Abruzzo | Democratic |
Senate District 29 |
| Christopher Smith | Democratic |
Senate District 31 |
| Eleanor Sobel | Democratic |
Senate District 33 |
| Maria Sachs | Democratic |
Senate District 34 |
| Gwen Margolis | Democratic |
Senate District 35 |
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified six notable Florida state legislative races in 2016, five of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Florida races »
Primary contests
- The Democratic incumbent faced a crowded primary field en route to a potentially competitive general election.
- ☑ Dwight Bullard (Inc.) ☐ Andrew Korge ☐ Ana Rivas Logan ☐ Missalys Perez
General election contests
- An open race in a closely divided district attracted a competitive general election field.
- ☑ Keith Perry ☐ Rod Smith
- A Democratic candidate targeted the Republican incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☑ René Garcia (Inc.) ☐ Anabella Grohoski Peralta
- A Democratic candidate targeted the Republican incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☐ Miguel Diaz de la Portilla (Inc.) ☑ Jose Javier Rodriguez
- A Democratic candidate targeted the Republican incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Anitere Flores (Inc.) ☐ Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Florida Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Doug Broxson  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | George Gainer |
|
| 3 | Bill Montford: 159,288 (I) |
Nancy Miller: 77,192 | |
| 4 | No candidate | Aaron Bean (I) |
|
| 5 | No candidate | Rob Bradley (I) |
|
| 6 | Audrey Gibson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 7 | Curtis Ceballos: 98,378 | Travis Hutson: 174,320 (I) |
|
| 8 | Rod Smith: 107,990 | Keith Perry: 119,895 |
|
| 9 | No candidate | David Simmons (I) |
|
| 10 | No candidate | Wilton Simpson (I) |
|
| 11 | Randolph Bracy III |
No candidate | |
| 12 | No candidate | Dennis Baxley |
|
| 13 | Linda Stewart: 129,598 |
Dean Asher: 93,444 | |
| 14 | No candidate | Dorothy Hukill: 158,946 (I) |
Richard Paul Dembinsky: 73,299 (No party affiliation) |
| 15 | Victor M. Torres, Jr.: 142,432 |
Peter Vivaldi: 97,862 | |
| 16 | No candidate | Jack Latvala (I) |
|
| 17 | Amy Tidd: 100,091 | Debbie Mayfield: 164,146 |
|
| 18 | Bob Buesing: 97,211 | Dana Young: 113,125 |
Joe Redner: 22,254 (No party affiliation) Sheldon Upthegrove: 2,060 (No party affiliation) |
| 19 | Darryl Rouson: 141,305 |
John Houman: 69,875 | |
| 20 | No candidate | Tom Lee (I) |
|
| 21 | No candidate | Bill Galvano (I) |
|
| 22 | Debra Smith Wright: 101,261 | Kelli Stargel: 116,464 (I) |
|
| 23 | Frank Alcock: 110,937 | Greg Steube: 157,910 |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Jeff Brandes (I) |
|
| 25 | Bruno Moore: 83,027 | Joe Negron: 152,943 (I) |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Denise Grimsley (I) |
|
| 27 | No candidate | Lizbeth Benacquisto (I) |
|
| 28 | No candidate | Kathleen Passidomo |
|
| 29 | Kevin J.G. Rader |
No candidate | |
| 30 | Bobby Powell Jr.: 119,559 |
Ron Berman: 101,516 | |
| 31 | Jeff Clemens (I) |
No candidate | |
| 32 | Lauren Book |
No candidate | |
| 33 | Perry Thurston |
No candidate | |
| 34 | Gary Farmer: 128,640 |
Antoanet Iotova: 75,368 | |
| 35 | Oscar Braynon (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | Anabella Grohoski Peralta: 67,003 | René Garcia: 81,972 (I) |
|
| 37 | Jose Javier Rodriguez: 87,794 |
Miguel Diaz de la Portilla: 81,938 (I) | Mercedes Christian: 9,979 (No party affiliation) |
| 38 | Daphne Campbell: 117,948 |
No candidate | Phillip J. Brutus: 38,811 (No party affiliation) |
| 39 | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: 82,117 | Anitere Flores: 97,343 (I) |
|
| 40 | Dwight Bullard: 80,551 (I) | Frank Artiles: 100,170 |
Mario Jimenez: 17,170 (No party affiliation) |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Write-in candidates
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Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Florida State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Florida State Senate in 2016, 19 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 19.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[4]
| Democratic candidates in the Florida State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 15 races. In the eight races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.9 percent. Republicans won 25 races in 2016. In the 11 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.7 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Seven of the 19 contested races in 2016—36.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Florida State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 8 R 5.2 percent District 18 R 6.8 percent District 22 R 7.0 percent District 30 D 8.2 percent District 37 D 3.3 percent District 39 R 8.5 percent District 40 R 9.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Florida State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 20 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Florida State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 22.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Florida State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Four Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the one race where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 34.7 percent. 16 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20 percent. |
Florida State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[5] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[5] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 15 23.9 percent 4 34.7 percent 3 7 46.7 percent Republican 25 16.7 percent 16 20.0 percent 10 14 56.0 percent Total 40 19.7 percent 20 22.1 percent 13 21 52.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Florida State Senate districts in 2016.
| Florida State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | 34.7 percent |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | Unopposed |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | 27.9 percent |
| District 8 | R | 5.2 percent |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | Unopposed |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | R | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | 16.2 percent |
| District 14 | R | 36.9 percent |
| District 15 | D | 18.6 percent |
| District 16 | R | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 24.2 percent |
| District 18 | R | 6.8 percent |
| District 19 | D | 33.8 percent |
| District 20 | R | Unopposed |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 7.0 percent |
| District 23 | R | 17.5 percent |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | 29.6 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | Unopposed |
| District 30 | D | 8.2 percent |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | D | Unopposed |
| District 34 | D | 26.1 percent |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | R | 10.1 percent |
| District 37 | D | 3.3 percent |
| District 38 | D | 50.5 percent |
| District 39 | R | 8.5 percent |
| District 40 | R | 9.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Florida elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Florida in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| February 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| March 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| March 15, 2016 | Election date | Presidential primary election | |
| April 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for judicial, state attorney and public defender candidates qualifying by petition to submit completed petitions to supervisors of elections | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Qualifying period for judicial, state attorney and public defender candidates begins | |
| May 6, 2016 | Ballot access | Qualifying period for judicial, state attorney and public defender candidates ends | |
| May 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| May 23, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for federal, state representative, state senate, county office and special district candidates qualifying by petition to submit completed petitions to supervisors of elections | |
| June 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| June 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Qualifying period for federal, state representative, state senate, county office and special district candidates begins | |
| June 24, 2016 | Ballot access | Qualifying period for federal, state representative, state senate, county office and special district candidates ends | |
| July 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| July 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Termination report due, if applicable | |
| August 5, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 30, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 9, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| September 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Termination report due, if applicable | |
| September 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 14, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Termination report due, if applicable | |
| February 6, 2017 | Campaign finance | Termination report due, if applicable | |
| Sources: Florida Division of Elections, "2015-2017 Election Dates Calendar," June 4, 2015 Florida Division of Elections, "Calendar of Reporting Dates for 2016 Candidates Registered with the Division of Elections," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 22 of the 40 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of fifteen Republicans and seven Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 18 (45.0%) of the 40 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Three incumbents faced primary competition on August 30. Eighteen incumbents did not seek re-election and another 19 incumbents were set to advance past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Eighteen incumbents did not run for re-election, while 23 (55%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, nine Democrats and nine Republicans, can be found above.
Retired incumbents
Impact of term limits
The Florida State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, Section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of two four-year terms on Florida State Senators.
There are 40 Florida State Senators. In 2016, five current members—two Democrats and three Republicans—were ineligible to run for re-election in November.
In addition to the five state senators who were required to leave office because of term limits, 21 state representatives were also termed-out.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Democrats (2):
Republicans (3):
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle that yielded statistically worse results in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Florida's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Florida Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 12.1% | 17.9% | 40.0% | 23.3 | 36 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for state senate in Florida in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in state senate races (including contributions in both primary and general election contests).[6]
| Florida State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 42 | $8,760,261 |
| 2012 | 93 | $19,211,243 |
| 2010 | 60 | $14,785,387 |
| 2008 | 50 | $12,800,300 |
| 2006 | 47 | $16,473,081 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Florida, at $208,578 per candidate, is ranked 11 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[6][7]
Qualifications
To run for the Florida State Senate, candidates must be 21 years old, have lived in Florida for two years and live in the district they intend to serve.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Facing South, "Winning the fight against gerrymandering in the South," accessed January 29, 2016
- ↑ Wink News, "Legal battle over state Senate districts coming to an end," accessed January 29, 2016
- ↑ NPR, "How Florida's New District Maps Could Give Democrats An Edge," accessed January 29, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Follow the Money, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Florida," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
