Florida State Senate elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3[2]
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
|
|
2018 Florida Senate elections | |
---|---|
![]() | |
General | November 6, 2018 |
Primary | August 28, 2018 |
Past election results |
2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
2018 elections | |
---|---|
Choose a chamber below: | |
Republicans maintained their majority as a result of the 2018 elections for the Florida State Senate, controlling 23 seats to Democrats' 17. Twenty-two of the 40 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 22 seats to Democrats' 16, with two vacancies.
Ballotpedia identified seven of the races as battlegrounds, including six Republican-held districts and one Democratic-held district. Of the seven battleground seats, Republicans won five to Democrats' two.
Heading into the election, Florida had been a Republican trifecta since 1998 when Republicans took control of the governorship. Republicans took control of the state Senate in the 1996 elections and the Florida House of Representatives in the 1994 elections. Had the Democratic Party taken the chamber, it would have broken the Republican trifecta.
Because state senators in Florida serve 2-4-4 terms, some winning candidates in this election served through 2022 and played a role in Florida's redistricting process. Both state legislative and congressional district lines are drawn by the state legislature, with congressional districts subject to gubernatorial veto.
The Florida State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. The Florida State Senate was one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers identified by Ballotpedia in the 2018 elections. Read more below.
Florida state senators serve 2-4-4 terms, where senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.
For more information about the Democratic primaries, click here.
For more information about the Republican primaries, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Florida State Legislature in the 2018 election. The Florida State Senate was identified as a battleground chamber. Twenty-two out of 40 seats were up for election. The Republican majority in the Florida State Senate was reduced from 26-14 to 25-15. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and one Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.
The Florida House of Representatives held elections for all 120 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 75-41 to 73-47. Four seats were vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary. Five incumbents were defeated in the general election; two Democrats and three Republicans.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Districts
- See also: Florida state legislative districts
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Candidates
General election candidates
Florida State Senate General Election 2018 |
|||
|
|||
Office | ![]() |
![]() |
Other |
District 2 |
|
|
|
District 4 |
|
Joanna Liberty Tavares (Libertarian Party) |
|
District 6 |
The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: ![]() |
|
|
District 8 |
|
Charles Goston (No Party Affiliation) |
|
District 10 |
|
|
|
District 12 |
|
|
|
District 14 |
Did not make the ballot: |
|
|
District 16 |
|
||
District 18 |
Dana Young (i) |
|
|
District 20 |
|
|
|
District 22 |
|
|
|
District 23 |
|
||
District 24 |
|
|
|
District 25 |
|
||
District 26 |
|
||
District 28 |
|
||
District 30 |
|
|
|
District 32 |
The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: ![]() |
|
|
District 34 |
|
|
|
District 36 |
|
||
District 38 |
The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: ![]() |
|
|
District 40 |
|
|
Write-in candidates:
- Keasha Gray, District 12
- Josh Santos, District 30
- Richard Sturm, District 34
Primary candidates
Florida State Senate Primary Election 2018 |
|||
|
|||
Office | ![]() |
![]() |
Other |
District 2 |
|
|
|
District 4 |
|
||
District 6 |
|
|
|
District 8 |
|
|
|
District 10 |
|
|
|
District 12 |
|
|
|
District 14 |
|
|
|
District 16 |
|
||
District 18 |
|
|
|
District 20 |
|
|
|
District 22 |
|
|
|
District 23 |
|
||
District 24 |
|
|
|
District 25 |
|
||
District 26 |
|
||
District 28 |
|
||
District 30 |
|
||
District 32 |
|
|
|
District 34 |
|
||
District 36 |
|
||
District 38 |
|
||
District 40 |
|
|
Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Florida State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[3]
Florida State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[3] |
![]() |
||||
![]() |
||||
![]() |
||||
Total |
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Florida State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Florida State Senate | |||
---|---|---|---|
District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
Florida State Senate District 18 | ![]() |
![]() |
R to D |
Incumbents retiring
Six incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:
Name | Party | Current Office |
---|---|---|
Dorothy Hukill | ![]() |
Senate District 14 |
Jack Latvala | ![]() |
Senate District 16 |
Greg Steube | ![]() |
Senate District 23 |
Joe Negron | ![]() |
Senate District 25 |
Denise Grimsley | ![]() |
Senate District 26 |
René Garcia | ![]() |
Senate District 36 |
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the Florida State Senate as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Competitive seats: The seats were last up for election in 2016 following a court decision which led to all 40 state Senate seats being up in one election rather than the usual 20. Four Republican seats up in 2018 had margins of victory of less than 10 percent. One Democratic seat up in 2018 had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent in the 2016 election, and another Democratic seat had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent in a 2017 special election. See the 2018 races to watch here.
- Partisan balance of seats up for election: Fourteen of the 22 seats up in 2018 were won by Republicans in their last elections.
- 2016 presidential election results: Hillary Clinton (D) won three districts that elected Republicans to the state Senate, including two districts that were up in 2018. Donald Trump (R) did not win any districts that were won by Democrats in 2016. See the 2016 presidential results in state legislative districts here.
Battleground races
Florida State Senate Battleground races |
---|
Democratic seats |
![]() |
Republican seats |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Ballotpedia identified seven battleground races in the Florida State Senate 2018 elections: one Democratic seat and six Republican seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
District 8
Who won this race?
Republican incumbent Keith Perry defeated Democrat Kayser Enneking. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Keith Perry (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 52.6 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 5.2 points. District 8 was one of 21 Florida state Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 8 by 0.2 points. |
District 16
Who won this race?
Republican Ed Hooper defeated Democrat Amanda Hickman Murphy. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
Vacant[5] |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where the incumbent resigned due to sexual misconduct allegations. Incumbent Jack Latvala (R) was first elected in 2010. In 2016, he was unopposed in the general election. In 2017, he was accused of sexual misconduct and resigned from the state Senate. Gov. Rick Scott (R) announced that he would not call for a special election to fill Latvala's seat ahead of the November general election.[6] According to Florida Politics, the Florida Democratic Party planned to target Latvala's district in the general election.[7] District 16 was one of 21 Florida state Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 16 by 12.8 points. |
District 18
Who won this race?
Democrat Janet Cruz defeated incumbent Republican Dana Young. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won.. Incumbent Dana Young (R) was first elected in 2016. She received 48.2 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 6.8 points. District 18 was one of 19 Florida state Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 18 by 5.4 points. |
District 22
Who won this race?
Republican incumbent Kelli Stargel defeated Democrat Bob Doyel. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Kelli Stargel (R) was first elected in 2012. In 2016, she received 53.5 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 7.0 points. District 22 was one of 21 Florida state Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 22 by 6.6 points. |
District 24
Who won this race?
Republican incumbent Jeff Brandes defeated Democrat Lindsay Cross. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where Democrats targeted the Republican incumbent. Incumbent Jeff Brandes (R) was first elected in 2012. He was unopposed in 2016. According to Florida Politics, the Florida Democratic Party planned to target Brandes' district in the general election.[7] District 24 was one of 21 Florida state Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 24 by 7.0 points. |
District 36
Who won this race?
Republican Manny Diaz Jr. defeated Democrat David Perez. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district where the incumbent won about 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Rene Garcia (R) was first elected in 2010. In 2016, he received 55.0 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 10.0 points. District 36 was one of 19 Florida state Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 36 by 13.4 points. |
District 40
Who won this race?
Democratic incumbent Annette Taddeo defeated Republican Marili Cancio. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
What made this a battleground race?
This was a district that the incumbent flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2017 special election. Incumbent Annette Taddeo (D) was first elected in a 2017 special election following the resignation of incumbent Frank Artiles (R). Taddeo received 51.0 percent of the vote and defeated her Republican opponent by 3.8 points. In 2016, Artiles received 50.6 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 9.9 points. District 40 was one of 19 Florida state Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 40 by 17.9 points. |
Battleground races map
Florida political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, Republicans increased their majority in the Florida State Senate from 22-16 to 23-17 .
Florida State Senate | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
Democratic Party | 16 | 17 | |
Republican Party | 22 | 23 | |
Vacancy | 2 | 0 | |
Total | 40 | 40 |
2016
Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held a 25-15 majority, down from the 26-14 majority they held after the 2014 elections. The state Senate map underwent a court-ordered redrawing in 2015 after a court ruled that the previous map violated a 2010 constitutional amendment prohibiting the drawing of districts lines to create a partisan advantage or deny racial or language minorities "the equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice." Because the map was redrawn, all 40 seats were up for election in 2016.
The Republican advantage dropped to 24-15 following the resignation of District 40 State Senator Frank Artiles (R) on April 21, 2017. A special election to fill District 40 was held on September 26, 2017. The election was contested by both parties, with four candidates who had either held elected office or had previously run for office entering the primaries. Both parties hoped to use this race to build momentum heading into the 2018 elections. Read more here.
Prior to the 1990s, Democrats maintained control in both chambers of the Legislature. The Senate became split in 1992 and moved to a Republican majority in the following election. Republicans took control of the House in 1996 and controlled both chambers through the 2016 elections.
Florida State Senate | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
Democratic Party | 14 | 15 | |
Republican Party | 26 | 25 | |
Total | 40 | 40 |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Florida gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 1998 elections, when they took control of the governor's office. The trifecta was briefly broken in 2010 when Gov. Charlie Crist left the Republican Party to become an independent. Crist did not run for re-election in the 2010 gubernatorial election and the seat was won by Republican Rick Scott, which restored the Republican trifecta.
Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Impact of term limits
The Florida State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of two four-year terms on Florida state senators.
A total of 20 out of 40 seats in the Florida State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, two senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (0)
- No Democratic senators were term-limited in 2018.
Republicans (2):
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 24 of them—12 senate chambers and 12 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[9] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[10] The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
A total of 271 state legislators—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4 percent of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018.[11][12] Republicans had twice as many state legislators term-limited in 2018 than Democrats. A total of 86 Democrats were term-limited, while 177 Republicans were term-limited.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
State legislative wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[13] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[14] | -782 | 7,561 | |
1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[15] | -695 | 7,481 | |
1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 |
Candidate and office information
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Chapter 99 of the Florida Statutes
In Florida, a candidate cannot file for more than one office at a time if the terms of those offices run concurrently. Thus, any elected public official wishing to run for office must resign if the term of that office will run concurrently with the office the official currently holds.[16]
Qualifying as a candidate
Major party, minor party, and unaffiliated candidates in Florida file in the same way. All qualifying paperwork and filing fees must be submitted to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections, during the qualifying period corresponding to the office being sought. Qualifying periods are as follows:[17]
- For candidates seeking federal office, state attorney, or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 120th day prior to the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 116th day before the primary election.
- For candidates seeking state office, other than state attorney or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 71st day before the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 67th day before the primary election.
- During a year in which the Florida State Legislature apportions the state, all candidates must file during the qualifying period designated for those seeking state office.
During the qualifying period, every candidate must file a full and public disclosure of financial interests, a form designating a campaign treasurer and campaign depository, qualifying fees or in-lieu-of-fee petitions, and a candidate oath. The candidate oath must be administered by the qualifying officer and must be signed in its written form by both the candidate and the qualifying officer, affirming the following:[16]
- The candidate is a registered voter.
- The candidate is qualified to run for and hold the office being sought.
- The candidate has not qualified for any other office in the state that runs for the same term as the office sought.
- The candidate has resigned from any other public office whose term would run at the same time as the office being sought.
- The assessment fee has been paid.
- If running with a political party, the candidate has not been a registered member of any other political party for 365 days before the beginning of the qualifying period.
Candidate filing fees
In Florida, candidates are required to pay filing fees and election assessment fees to the Division of Elections when qualifying. A party assessment fee may also be required, if the party the candidate is running with elects to levy one. For political party candidates, total fees are equal to 6 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee, a 1 percent election assessment, and a 2 percent party assessment). For unaffiliated candidates, total fees are equal to 4 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought. (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee and a 1 percent election assessment).[18]
A candidate may waive the required filing fees if he or she submits an in-lieu-of-filing-fee petition with signatures equal to at least 1 percent of the total number of registered voters in the geographical area represented by the office being sought. Signatures for this petition may not be collected until the candidate has filed the appointment of campaign treasurer and designation of campaign depository form, and the completed petition must be filed by the 28th day preceding the first day of the qualifying period for the office being sought. This petition must be filed with the supervisor of elections in each county in which the petition was circulated in order to verify the signatures. The supervisor of elections in the county must then certify the number of valid signatures to the Florida Division of Elections no later than seven days prior to the first day of the corresponding qualifying period.[19]
Write-in candidates
A write-in candidate is not entitled to have his or her name printed on any ballots, but a space is provided for voters to write in a candidate's name on the general election ballot. A candidate may not qualify as a write-in candidate if he or she has qualified to run for public office by other means.[17][20]
A write-in candidate is required to file a candidate oath with the Florida Division of Elections. This is due during the standard qualifying period for the office being sought. A write-in candidate is not required to pay any filing fees.[17][21]
Qualifications
To run for the Florida State Senate, candidates must be 21 years old, have lived in Florida for two years and live in the district they intend to serve.[22]
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2024[23] | |
---|---|
Salary | Per diem |
$29,697/year | $175/day for a maximum of 60 days. Members can also receive per diem outside of the session. |
When sworn in
Florida legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[24]
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Jefferson County, Florida | 5.06% | 1.75% | 3.66% | ||||
Monroe County, Florida | 6.82% | 0.44% | 4.90% | ||||
Pinellas County, Florida | 1.11% | 5.65% | 8.25% | ||||
St. Lucie County, Florida | 2.40% | 7.86% | 12.12% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[25][26]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 40 state Senate districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 26.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 19 out of 40 state Senate districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 40 state Senate districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 21 out of 40 state Senate districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. |
2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 26.54% | 72.27% | R+45.7 | 31.53% | 64.17% | R+32.6 | R |
2 | 32.88% | 66.00% | R+33.1 | 23.33% | 72.77% | R+49.4 | R |
3 | 55.08% | 43.85% | D+11.2 | 52.60% | 43.95% | D+8.7 | D |
4 | 33.62% | 65.42% | R+31.8 | 34.51% | 61.67% | R+27.2 | R |
5 | 34.99% | 63.97% | R+29 | 24.39% | 72.74% | R+48.4 | R |
6 | 39.20% | 59.89% | R+20.7 | 58.69% | 38.21% | D+20.5 | D |
7 | 43.20% | 55.56% | R+12.4 | 36.97% | 59.77% | R+22.8 | R |
8 | 46.85% | 52.11% | R+5.3 | 47.97% | 48.21% | R+0.2 | R |
9 | 59.72% | 39.55% | D+20.2 | 45.98% | 49.87% | R+3.9 | R |
10 | 46.11% | 52.83% | R+6.7 | 32.40% | 64.41% | R+32 | R |
11 | 38.49% | 60.71% | R+22.2 | 63.96% | 32.80% | D+31.2 | D |
12 | 66.45% | 32.87% | D+33.6 | 33.26% | 64.18% | R+30.9 | R |
13 | 47.46% | 51.40% | R+3.9 | 58.61% | 36.84% | D+21.8 | D |
14 | 69.42% | 29.78% | D+39.6 | 39.08% | 57.17% | R+18.1 | R |
15 | 45.53% | 53.50% | R+8 | 59.50% | 37.13% | D+22.4 | D |
16 | 43.71% | 55.19% | R+11.5 | 41.63% | 54.45% | R+12.8 | R |
17 | 45.57% | 53.36% | R+7.8 | 38.31% | 57.83% | R+19.5 | R |
18 | 46.55% | 52.15% | R+5.6 | 50.70% | 45.27% | D+5.4 | R |
19 | 76.77% | 22.34% | D+54.4 | 63.99% | 32.26% | D+31.7 | D |
20 | 47.77% | 51.09% | R+3.3 | 43.99% | 52.28% | R+8.3 | R |
21 | 43.33% | 55.73% | R+12.4 | 39.28% | 57.40% | R+18.1 | R |
22 | 49.72% | 49.04% | D+0.7 | 44.99% | 51.61% | R+6.6 | R |
23 | 36.64% | 62.71% | R+26.1 | 41.25% | 55.80% | R+14.6 | R |
24 | 46.61% | 52.32% | R+5.7 | 44.48% | 51.45% | R+7 | R |
25 | 54.91% | 44.53% | D+10.4 | 42.88% | 54.46% | R+11.6 | R |
26 | 41.36% | 57.74% | R+16.4 | 33.39% | 63.80% | R+30.4 | R |
27 | 68.92% | 30.44% | D+38.5 | 38.62% | 58.25% | R+19.6 | R |
28 | 45.42% | 53.67% | R+8.3 | 36.81% | 60.62% | R+23.8 | R |
29 | 60.67% | 38.77% | D+21.9 | 55.41% | 42.51% | D+12.9 | D |
30 | 40.40% | 58.92% | R+18.5 | 55.05% | 42.44% | D+12.6 | D |
31 | 83.05% | 16.53% | D+66.5 | 61.38% | 36.33% | D+25.1 | D |
32 | 44.03% | 55.22% | R+11.2 | 60.79% | 36.76% | D+24 | D |
33 | 62.23% | 37.20% | D+25 | 79.39% | 18.96% | D+60.4 | D |
34 | 52.86% | 46.51% | D+6.3 | 58.17% | 39.48% | D+18.7 | D |
35 | 60.01% | 39.42% | D+20.6 | 81.57% | 16.75% | D+64.8 | D |
36 | 88.12% | 11.58% | D+76.5 | 55.62% | 42.20% | D+13.4 | R |
37 | 49.95% | 49.57% | D+0.4 | 59.55% | 37.89% | D+21.7 | D |
38 | 52.34% | 47.24% | D+5.1 | 75.47% | 22.69% | D+52.8 | D |
39 | 72.25% | 27.20% | D+45.1 | 53.74% | 43.49% | D+10.3 | R |
40 | 49.76% | 49.75% | D+0 | 57.64% | 39.78% | D+17.9 | D |
Total | 50.01% | 49.13% | D+0.9 | 47.82% | 49.02% | R+1.2 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
See also
- Florida State Senate
- Florida State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Florida state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Florida state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ Previously held by the Republican Party
- ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "No special elections in Latvala, Hahnfeldt districts," January 18, 2018
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Florida Politics, "Florida Democrats look to expand number of state Senate seats in play," March 28, 2018
- ↑ Latvala resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
- ↑ Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term-limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term-limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 97, Section 012," accessed March 6, 2025 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>
tag; name "flstatute99.012" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed March 6, 2025
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 092," accessed March 6, 2025
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 095," accessed March 6, 2025
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed March 6, 2025
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>
tag; no text was provided for refs namedflstatute99.021
- ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Qualifying Information," accessed December 16, 2103
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Florida Constitution, "Article III, Section 15(d)," accessed November 22, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017