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Fundraising in Minnesota state legislative elections, 2020
September 29, 2020
The value of money in Minnesota politics extends beyond purchasing power. Campaign cash allows candidates to promote their message and turn out their voters, but perhaps more importantly, it often represents momentum. While having the biggest campaign account is no guarantee of success at the polls, studies conducted by the Center for Responsive Politics and the Campaign Finance Institute found a strong correlation.[1][2]
As part of our ongoing partnership with Transparency USA, we took a closer look at how the two major political party candidates for the Minnesota State Legislature have been doing with fundraising in a cycle-vs-cycle comparison from 2018 to 2020. Here’s what we found:
- The overall contributions favor the Democrats, both in the aggregate and per candidate. As of the semiannual reports, Democratic candidates for the Minnesota State Legislature had raised $2.8 million, while Republicans had raised $1.9 million. Similarly, Democrats had raised on average $11,874, while Republicans had raised on average $8,577.
- The percentage of change between 2018 and 2020 generally favors the Democrats, but the Republicans do better in two metrics we studied. Democrats are ahead of Republicans in both number of donations and small-dollar donations, but the momentum may be with Republicans. The number of individual donations to Democrats is up 64 percent, while the number of donations to Republican candidates is up 79 percent. The number of small-dollar donations (less than or equal to $100) to Democrats declined 14 percentage points compared to 2018, while it held steady for Republicans.
In Minnesota, 24 contested state legislative primaries took place in 2018, and 5 of them (21%) were decided by a margin of 10% or less. In 2020, 43 contested state legislative primaries took place, and 4 of them (9%) were decided by a margin of 10% or less.
Democrats vs. Republicans, by the numbers
Candidate donations
The numbers from the table below were taken from campaign finance reports for Minnesota State Senate and Minnesota House of Representatives candidates from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020, and those were compared with reports from the same time period during the 2018 election cycle.
| Donations to Minnesota State Legislature candidates, 2018 and 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota State Legislature candidate donations | 2018 Cycle (1/1/2017 - 6/30/2018) |
2020 Cycle (1/1/2019 - 6/30/2020) |
Percentage (%) change |
| Number of Candidates - Democrat | 160 | 233 | +46% |
| Number of Candidates - Republican | 139 | 218 | +57% |
| Total Donations - Democrat | $1,512,910 | $2,766,701 | +83% |
| Total Donations - Republican | $1,008,232 | $1,869,745 | +85% |
| Number of Donations - Democrat | 3,736 | 6,123 | +64% |
| Number of Donations - Republican | 2,215 | 3,954 | +79% |
| Average Raised by Candidates - Democrat | $9,456 | $11,874 | +26% |
| Average Raised by Candidates - Republican | $7,253 | $8,577 | +18% |
| Average Donation Amount - Democrat | $405 | $452 | +12% |
| Average Donation Amount - Republican | $455 | $473 | +4% |
Party donations
| Donations to state party PACs, 2018 and 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State party PACs | 2018 Cycle (1/1/2017 - 6/30/2018) |
2020 Cycle (1/1/2019 - 6/30/2020) |
Percentage (%) change |
| Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor State Central Committee | $4,885,301 | $7,149,101 | 46% |
| Republican Party of Minnesota | $1,021,309 | $964,294 | -6% |
How do we get these numbers?
Transparency USA matches the lists of candidates who filed to run for Minnesota House of Representatives or Minnesota State Senate in the last two election cycles with records of campaign accounts and affiliated political action committees (PACs). In cases with more, the numbers are combined to get a complete picture of the money raised.
After linking all campaign accounts to a candidate name, Transparency USA "cleans" the data; in other words, they remove duplicate and sometimes triplicate entries. Often, a candidate’s donation is reported multiple times because of overlapping or confusing filing deadlines with the state agency. Sometimes there are misspelled names, like a John Doe, John Dough, and John and Mary Dow, all at the same address. Other times, they link together nicknames such as Tim Brown and Timothy Brown at the same address. They also link unclear PAC names, like "Pete for Senate," to the correct candidate (i.e. "Pete Smith").
While we have totaled the contributions to candidates to give you the big picture, you can see all the individual contributions by searching the candidate’s name below.
One more note: Candidates must provide detailed information (name, address, occupation, employer, and date of contribution) about their donors when the donor gives the candidate more than $20 in a given reporting cycle. While our totals capture all the donations to candidates whether large or small, we do not have detailed donor information for those who contribute less than $20.
Charts
State senate
- See also: Minnesota State Senate elections, 2020
Fundraising advantages
Overall fundraising
Fundraising comparison
State house
Fundraising advantages
Overall fundraising
Fundraising comparison
Full data set
The story isn’t over
In 2018, 49.55 percent of the total giving came in during the last months before the election. If the trend holds true, we should see another $4.55 million flow into Minnesota campaign coffers before election day. Check back to see how your favorite candidates are stacking up in the final days before the election.
Limitations
The direct comparison between fundraising data from 2018 and 2020 is limited by at least two factors. First, the same seats and offices were not necessarily up for election in both years. For example, Michigan held elections for both chambers (the state Senate and House of Representatives) in 2018, but only for the House in 2020. Second, additional offices on the ballot in a year might affect the amount of money raised in state legislative elections. For example, among the states studied, Florida, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin all held gubernatorial elections alongside their state legislative elections in 2018 but not 2020.
See also
- Minnesota State Senate elections, 2020
- Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2020
- Ballotpedia: Our partnership with Transparency USA
- Federal campaign finance laws and regulations
- State legislative elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
