Geoff Pallay/2010 state legislative elections review

Geoff Pallay

Geoff Pallay

Geoff Pallay, Editor and Senior Analyst State Legislative News Desk Ballotpedia

Contact:
geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org
Biography:
Geoff Pallay

Election results

Partisan breakdown

Before the election

Heading into the November 2 elections, the Democratic Party holds a commanding lead in state houses in the 88 legislative chambers that hold elections in 2010. 52 of the 88 chambers, or nearly 60% of them, currently have a Democratic majority, while 33 of them have a Republican majority. (Two chambers have an exactly equal number of Democrats and Republicans and one is officially nonpartisan.)

Legislative chamber
State senates	23	18	1	1
State houses	29	15	1	-
Totals:	52	33	2	1

After the election

Note: As of November 3, two chambers are too close to call. The Oregon State Senate and New York State Senate are still toss ups.

Not including the 2 chambers still up for grabs, Republicans have picked up 19 legislative chambers while Democrats have lost 21. Republicans won 52 chambers on November 2, while Democrats only won 31.

Legislative chamber
State senates	15	24	1	1
State houses	16	28	1	0
Totals:	31	52	2	1

State Senate

Democrats Before election: 28 Predicted after election: 21 Actual Results: 20	Toss-up 6	Republicans Before election: 20 Predicted after election: 22 Actual Results: 26

15 Safe or Not Up	3	3	6	2	4	16 Safe or Not Up

State Senate Results, 2010
	Partisan count before November 2010			Partisan count after November 2010
State	Democratic	Republican		Democratic	Republican
Alabama	20	15		12	22
Alaska	10	10		10	10
Arizona	12	18		9	21
Arkansas	27	8		20	15
California	24	14		24	14
Colorado	21	14		19	16
Connecticut	24	12		20	12
Delaware	15	6		14	7
Florida	13	26		12	28
Georgia	22	34		21	35
Hawaii	23	2		24	1
Idaho	7	28		7	28
Illinois	37	22		34	25
Indiana	17	33		14	36
Iowa	32	18		27	23
Kansas	9	31		9	31
Kentucky	17	20		15	22
Louisiana	22	16		22	16
Maine	20	15		15	19
Maryland	33	14		35	12
Massachusetts	35	5		36	4
Michigan	16	22		12	26
Minnesota	46	21		31	36
Mississippi	27	25		27	25
Missouri	11	23		11	22
Montana	22	27		18	32
Nebraska	NA	NA		NA	NA
Nevada	12	7		11	10
New Hampshire	14	10		5	19
New Jersey	23	17		23	17
New Mexico	27	15		27	15
New York	32	29		30	30
North Carolina	30	20		19	31
North Dakota	21	26		12	35
Ohio	12	21		10	23
Oklahoma	22	26		16	32
Oregon	18	12		15	14
Pennsylvania	20	30		20	30
Rhode Island	33	4		29	9
South Carolina	19	27		19	27
South Dakota	14	21		8	27
Tennessee	14	19		13	20
Texas	12	19		12	19
Utah	8	21		7	22
Vermont	23	7		22	8
Virginia	22	18		22	18
Washington	31	18		27	22
West Virginia	26	8		26	8
Wisconsin	18	15		14	19
Wyoming	7	23		4	26

State House

Democrats Before election: 32 Projected after election: 23 Actual Results: 19	Toss-up 5	Republicans Before election: 16 Projected after election: 21 Actual Results: 29

13 Safe or Not Up	6	4	5	5	3	13 Safe or Not Up

Note: Oregon House tied 30-30.

State House Results, 2010
	Partisan count before November 2010			Partisan count after November 2010
State	Democratic	Republican	Others/Independents	Democratic	Republican	Others/Independents
Alabama	60	43		43	62
Alaska	18	21	1	16	24	1
Arizona	25	35		20	40
Arkansas	71	28		54	46
California	50	27	1	52	25	1
Colorado	37	27		31	33
Connecticut	114	37		96	50
Delaware	24	17		26	15
Florida	44	76		40	80
Georgia	73	103	1	72	107	1
Hawaii	45	6		43	8
Idaho	18	52		13	57
Illinois	70	48		64	54
Indiana	52	48		42	58
Iowa	56	44		42	58
Kansas	46	79		33	92
Kentucky	65	35		58	42
Louisiana	51	50	4	51	50	4
Maine	94	55	1	73	76	1
Maryland	104	37		98	43
Massachusetts	142	15		130	30
Michigan	65	42		54	56
Minnesota	87	47		61	73
Mississippi	73	49		73	49
Missouri	74	88	1	58	105
Montana	50	50		33	67
Nebraska	NA	NA		NA	NA
Nevada	28	14		26	16
New Hampshire	216	174		102	298
New Jersey	47	33		47	33
New Mexico	45	25		36	34
New York	105	42	2	99	50	1
North Carolina	68	52		52	67
North Dakota	36	58		25	69
Ohio	53	46		41	58
Oklahoma	39	62		34	67
Oregon	36	24		30	30
Pennsylvania	104	98		89	114
Rhode Island	69	6		65	10
South Carolina	51	73		48	76
South Dakota	24	46		21	48
Tennessee	48	51		34	64
Texas	73	76		51	99
Utah	22	53		16	59
Vermont	94	48	8	93	48	8
Virginia	39	59		39	59
Washington	61	37		55	43
West Virginia	71	29		65	35
Wisconsin	50	45	2	38	60	1
Wyoming	19	41		8	52

Before and after

Total state legislators by party before and after the election

Partisan breakdown of state legislators
	Before November 2010 election			After November 2010 election
Party	Senators	Representatives	Total state legislators	Senators	Representatives	Total state legislators	Gain/loss legislators
Democratic	1,020	3,006	4,026	890	2,490	3,386	-640
Republican	892	2,351	3,243	1,020	2,889	3,909	+666
Nonpartisan	49	0	49	49	0	49	0
Independent	4	23	27

See also: State legislative elections results, 2010

Note: States that are considered "safe" for one party or the other are filled in for the post-election analysis.

	Majority party before November 2010			Majority party after November 2010
State	State Senate	State House		State Senate	State House
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska		N/A			N/A
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Trifectas

See also: Republican and Democratic state government trifectas

Pre- and post-election comparison

The table below displays total trifectas before and after the election. It is current with two possible trifectas remaining.

Trifectas
Party	Before election	Congressional seats	After election	Congressional seats	Gain/loss states	Gain/loss congressional seats
Democratic	16	131	11	115	-5	-16
Republican	8	66	20	198	+12	+132

State	Governor	State Senate	State House		Trifecta?	# of U.S. Congressional seats
						Before 2010 census	After 2010 census
Alabama						7	7
Alaska						1	1
Arizona						8	9 (+1)
Arkansas						4	4
California						53	53
Colorado						7	7
Connecticut						5	5
Delaware						1	1
Florida						25	27 (+2)
Georgia						13	14 (+1)
Hawaii						2	2
Idaho						2	2
Illinois						19	18 (-1)
Indiana						9	9
Iowa						5	4 (-1)
Kansas						4	4
Kentucky						6	6
Louisiana						7	6 (-1)
Maine						2	2
Maryland						8	8
Massachusetts						10	9 (-1)
Michigan						15	14 (-1)
Minnesota						8	8
Mississippi						4	4
Missouri						9	8 (-1)
Montana						1	1
Nebraska		Nonpartisan	NA			3	3
Nevada						3	4 (+1)
New Hampshire						2	2
New Jersey						13	12 (-1)
New Mexico						3	3
New York						29	27 (-2)
North Carolina						13	13
North Dakota						1	1
Ohio						18	16 (-2)
Oklahoma						5	5
Oregon						5	5
Pennsylvania						19	18 (-1)
Rhode Island						2	2
South Carolina						6	7 (+1)
South Dakota						1	1
Tennessee						9	9
Texas						32	36 (+4)
Utah						3	4 (+1)
Vermont						1	1
Virginia						11	11
Washington						9	10 (+1)
West Virginia						3	3
Wisconsin						8	8
Wyoming						1	1

In addition to the Trifectas in some states above, the following states have veto-proof majorities, allowing the legislature to overrule a governor who is the opposite party.

Veto-proof majority and both chambers but not governor:

• Missouri (Republican)
• Montana (Republican)
• New Hampshire (Republican)
• Rhode Island (Democratic)

Veto-proof majorities

The two tables below display overall breakdowns of states with veto-proof majorities.

States With Veto-Proof Majorities
	Before Election			After Election
Party	Senate	House	Total Chambers	Senate	House	Total Chambers	Gain/loss veto-proof majorities
Democratic	10	10	20	7	5	12	-8
Republican	6	3	9	13	10	23	+14

Chambers With Veto-Proof Majorities
	Before Election			After Election
State	Democratic	Republican		Democratic	Republican	Governor	Veto-proof chambers override governor
Arizona Senate					a
Arizona House	a				a
Arkansas Senate	a
Arkansas House	a
California Assembly				a
Connecticut Senate	a
Connecticut House	a
Delaware Senate	a			a
Florida Senate		a			a
Florida House					a
Hawaii Senate	a			a
Hawaii House	a			a
Idaho Senate		a			a
Idaho House		a			a
Indiana Senate					a
Kansas Senate		a			a
Kansas House					a
Maryland Senate	a			a
Maryland House	a			a
Massachusetts Senate	a			a
Massachusetts House	a			a
Minnesota Senate	a
Missouri Senate		a			a
Montana House					a
Nevada Assembly	a
New Hampshire Senate					a		a Republican legislature
New Hampshire House					a		a Republican legislature
New York Assembly	a
North Dakota Senate					a
North Dakota House					a
Ohio Senate					a
Oklahoma Senate					a
Rhode Island Senate	a			a		Independent
Rhode Island House	a			a		Independent
South Dakota Senate					a
South Dakota House					a
Utah Senate		a			a
Utah House		a			a
Vermont Senate	a			a
West Virginia Senate	a			a
West Virginia House	a
Wyoming Senate		a			a
Wyoming House		a			a
TOTALS	20	9		12	23

Maps

Maps of partisan balance

Before election

Partisan Legislatures

Partisan dominance in state legislatures heading into the 2010 state legislative elections

Partisan Senates

Partisan dominance in state senates heading into the 2010 state legislative elections

Partisan Houses

Partisan dominance in state houses heading into the 2010 state legislative elections

Both Chambers Democrat

State legislatures where heading into November 2010 the Democratic Party is in the majority in both chambers

Both Chambers Republican

State legislatures where heading into the November 2, 2010 elections the Republican Party was in the majority in both chambers

Democratic Senates

State senates where heading into November 2010 the Democratic Party is in the majority.

Republican Senates

State senates where heading into November 2010 the Republican Party is in the majority.

Democratic Houses

State houses where heading into November 2010 the Democratic Party is in the majority.

Republican Houses

State houses where heading into the November 2, 2010 elections the Republican Party is in the majority.

           

After election

Partisan Legislatures

Partisan dominance in state legislatures after the 2010 state legislative elections

Partisan Senates

Partisan dominance in state senates after the 2010 state legislative elections

Partisan Houses

Partisan dominance in state houses after the 2010 state legislative elections

Both Chambers Democrat

State legislatures after the November 2010 elections where the Democratic Party is in the majority in both chambers

Both Chambers Republican

State legislatures after the November 2010 elections where the Republican Party is in the majority in both chambers

Democratic Senates

State senates after the November 2010 election where the Democratic Party is in the majority.

Republican Senates

State senates after the November 2010 election where the Republican Party is in the majority.

Democratic Houses

State houses where after the November 2010 election the Democratic Party is in the majority.

Republican Houses

State houses where after the November 2, 2010 elections the Republican Party is in the majority.

Summary

A brief look at Tuesday's election results

• Republicans on Tuesday won at least 666 seats than they previously had

• Combined with Democrats dropping at least 640 seats, Republicans have an edge of 523 seats for the whole legislature

• This is the most seats since 1928
• Among Houses that held an election, Republicans won 2,698 seats while Democrats won 2,280. Thus, in state houses with an election on Tuesday, Republicans won 418 more seats.
• Among Senates that held an election, Republicans won 764 seats while Democrats won 666. Thus, in state senates with an election on Tuesday, Republicans won 98 more seats.

• Oregon Senate is interesting. There were 12 D seats up and 4 R seats. So even though Democrats won 9 seats to Republicans 6 on election night, Republicans had more incumbents not up for election, which is why the Senate may split at 15-15.

• New Hampshire had the greatest percentage of Republican wins, with a 37.50% increase in the Senate and a 31.79% increase in the House. Other states with big Republican victories, and concurrently, large Democratic losses:

• Minnesota House: 19.40%
• Alabama House: 18.45%
• Wyoming House: 18.33%

• Democrats performed best in the Delaware house, with a 4.88% increase in their majority. However, there were no states where Democrats picked up seats in both chambers. Other Democratic increases:

• Maryland Senate:4.26%
• California Assembly: 2.56%
• Hawaii Senate:4%

• Before the election, Democrats had a +783 advantage in number of total legislators
• After the election, Republicans now have a +523 lead in number of total legislators
• Thus, Republicans pulled off a swing of 1,306 seats.