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Geoff Pallay/2012 congressional elections review
From Ballotpedia
Geoff Pallay
Contact:
geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org
Biography:
Geoff Pallay
Overview
What happened on November 6
- More than $1 billion spent on Congressional races
- Congress remains divided with Democratic control in Senate, Republican control in House
- First election using redistricting maps based on the 2010 Census
- Highly successful night for incumbents
US Senate
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Republican Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
- 33 seats up for election.
- 28 seats stayed with same party
- Of the other 5:
- 1 went from D to GOP (Nebraska)
- 2 went from GOP to D (Indiana, Massachusetts)
- 1 went from I to D (Connecticut)
- 1 went from GOP to I (Maine)
US House
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 201 | |
| Republican Party | 242 | 234 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Outside influences
Congressional races influenced by things like ballot measures, presidential race
- In Colorado, two targeted GOP congressmen won re-election
- In Minnesota, highly successful night up and down the ballot includes defeat of incumbent Chip Cravaack and near defeat of Michelle Bachmann.
- In Ohio, Republicans own 12 of 16 congressional seats
| 2012 United States House General Election Results | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Total Winners | Incumbent Winners | Defeated Incumbents | Incumbent Re-Election Rate** | Non-Incumbent Winners |
| Democratic | 201 | 151 | 10 | 93.8% | 50 |
| Republican | 234 | 198 | 17 | 92.1% | 35 |
| TOTALS | 435 | 349 | 27 | 92.8% | 85 |
| **Note: The incumbent re-election rate is calculated by dividing the total incumbents winners by the total incumbents who appeared on the general election ballot. | |||||
Targeted Races by Each Party
Democratic Party
Red to Blue
- Successful (Democratic won): 28/55 (50.9%)
- Unsuccessful (Republican won): 27/55 (49.1%)
Republican Party
Patriot Program
- Successful (Republican won): 18/33 (54.5%)
- Unsuccessful (Democrat won): 15/33 (45.5%)
Young Guns
- Successful (Republican won): 13/42(31.0%)
- Unsuccessful (Democrat won): 29/42 (69.0%)
Redistricting
This was the first election using newly drawn redistricting maps. Seven states have one single member, but 43 states used new maps.
Two states perfectly encapsulate redistricting and the benefits it can provide to parties in power.
Illinois
| Members of the U.S. House from Illinois -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 8 | 12 | |
| Republican Party | 11 | 6 | |
| Total | 19 | 18 | |
North Carolina
| Members of the U.S. House from North Carolina -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 7 | 4 | |
| Republican Party | 6 | 9 | |
| Total | 13 | 13 | |
Summary
A brief look at Tuesday's election results
- Democrats increase advantage in Senate
- Republicans hold House -- but Dems get net-gain of seats
- DCCC vs. NRCC
- DCCC successful in 41.8% of chosen active races
- NRCC successful in 41.3% of chosen active races
- Incumbent performance this year vs. 2010
- 2010: 53 incumbents lost in the general election
- 2012: 27 incumbents lost in the general election
- Republicans won both incumbent vs incumbent cross-party races, in Iowa and Ohio
- Michigan 11th District's bizarre result
- 349 incumbents won re-election. Incumbents were re-elected at an 93% rate
- 18 elected officials of other offices (State Senate, executive, etc) successfully made the leap to Congress
- Of the 24 races where a challenger outraised an incumbent in the third quarter, the challenger was victorious in 11 of those races
8 Democratic
3 Republican
