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Gubernatorial elections, 2016

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Twelve states held gubernatorial elections on November 8, 2016, including a special election in Oregon.

In the 12 states holding gubernatorial elections, Republicans held four governorships before election day. However, on November 8, they scored victories in six states. Democrats held eight of the seats that were up for election on November 8; they won five of these and six states total.

Republicans took control of gubernatorial offices in Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont, while retaining their gubernatorial seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Utah. Democrats took control of the governor's office in North Carolina.

Prior to the November election, across all 50 states, Republicans held 31 governorships while Democrats held 18. (The governor of Alaska is an independent.) After the election, which saw Republicans also win the U.S. presidency and majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress, Republicans had gained three new governorships but lost one, which resulted in their national total of governorships increasing to 33. Additionally, in New Hampshire and Missouri, Republican pickups won the party trifecta control of state government. The defeat in North Carolina resulted in Republicans losing trifecta control of that state.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Gubernatorial elections put trifecta control at risk in seven states, three of which were controlled by Democrats and four by Republicans.
  • Though Republicans held almost twice as many gubernatorial seats across the country, Democrats held eight of the 12 seats up for election in 2016.

    • 2016 elections

    Twelve states held gubernatorial elections in 2016:

    States with gubernatorial elections in 2016.


    Party control

    Heading into the 2016 elections, Republicans had trifecta control of state government in four of the 12 states holding gubernatorial elections: Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Utah. Democrats had trifecta control in three states: Delaware, Vermont, and Oregon. Trifecta control requires that one party holds the governorship in addition to a majority in the State Senate and House of Representatives.

    The chart below is a breakdown of the political parties pertaining to the state executive office of governor. For other state executive offices, click here.

    Partisan Breakdown: Governors
    Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
         Democratic Party 18 16
         Republican Party 31 33
         Independent 1 1
    Total 50 50

    Incumbents

    Seven of the 12 elections for governor in 2016 were open races; only five governors ran for re-election: Governor of Montana Steve Bullock (D), Governor of North Carolina Pat McCrory (R), Governor of Oregon Kate Brown (D), Governor of Utah Gary Herbert (R), and Governor of Washington Jay Inslee (D).

    Of the seven open races, five of the governorships were held by Democrats and two were held by Republicans, increasing the partisan risk for Democrats in 2016. In three of the seven open races, governors were term-limited—Governor of Delaware Jack Markell (D), Governor of Missouri Jay Nixon (D), and Governor of West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin (D). Two more governors ran for higher office—Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D) for the U.S. Senate, Governor of Indiana Mike Pence (R) for vice president of the United States—and two retired—Governor of Vermont Peter Shumlin (D) and Governor of North Dakota Jack Dalrymple (R).

    Browse elections by state

    Delaware

    Indiana

    Missouri

    Montana

    New Hampshire

    North Carolina

    North Dakota

    Oregon

    Utah

    Vermont

    Washington

    West Virginia

    Context of the 2016 elections

    Influence of voter turnout

    U.S. governor elections
    2008-2014
    Year Total races Won
    Democratic Party         		Won
    Republican Party
    2008[42] 11 7 3
    2010 37 13 23
    2012 12 8 4
    2014 36 10 25

    Gubernatorial elections across the country coincided with what was a highly competitive presidential election, which drives up voter turnout down the ballot.[43] This increased turnout during presidential election years can significantly affect the partisan balance of state governments. In particular, offices elected in the middle of a presidential term disadvantage the party of the current president, a trend that has remained relatively constant since the Civil War. Presidential election years see aggregate gains for the party of the winning presidential candidate.[44][43]

    Ballotpedia’s analysis of gubernatorial elections over the past eight years (see table, right) showed that Democrats won a greater percentage of seats during the years that coincided with the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, both of which were won by Democratic President Barack Obama. Elections in the middle of a presidential term during this period favored Republican candidates.

    Thirty-six states held gubernatorial elections in 2014; the same year, voter turnout was the lowest recorded since 1942.[45] Voter turnout has dropped during elections in the middle of a presidential term since the 1840s.[44]

    Past elections

    Republicans gained two governor seats in the 2014 election cycle. Heading into the November 2016 elections, Republicans held 31 governor seats, Democrats held 18, and one was independent. Of the 12 governor seats up for election in 2016, eight were held by Democrats.[46] Democrats, therefore, held about 67 percent of the total governor seats up for election in 2016, despite only holding 36 percent of total governor seats across the country. This created a partisan risk in that a disproportionate number of seats held by Democrats were being challenged compared to the actual partisan balance—so Democrats entered the November 2016 elections in a position of greater relative risk than Republicans.

    About the office

    Quick facts about Governors
    • Salary range: Maine $70,000 - Pennsylvania $187,818
    • 17 U.S. Presidents held a governor's office prior to assuming the presidency.

    In the United States, the title "governor" refers to the chief executive of each state. The governor's office is constitutionally mandated and directly elected in all 50 states. In the case of a vacancy or resignation, the governor is usually succeeded by the lieutenant governor, secretary of state, or president of the state senate.

    In most states, the governor has considerable practical powers, though this may be moderated by the state legislature and or other elected executive officials.[47]

    Governors act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. Other state executives usually report to the governor, who is not subordinate to the federal authorities. Governors may also assume additional roles, such as the commander-in-chief of the National Guard (when not federalized). They also have the abilities to pardon or commute a criminal sentence and veto state bills. The specific duties and powers vary widely between states.

    • All governors in the U.S. serve four-year terms except in New Hampshire and Vermont, where governors serve two-year terms.
    • Governors are subject to term limits in 36 states.
    • Eleven states hold regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections during presidential election years (e.g., 2016, 2020); 36 states hold them during mid-term elections (e.g., 2014, 2018); five states hold elections in odd years.[48]

    Term limits

    Main article: State executives with term limits and States with gubernatorial term limits

    In 36 states, governors are subject to some type of term limits. Though many of these term limits are initially set by state constitutions, there are a growing number of ballot initiatives to change, and in some cases create, term limits.

    Governors serve four-year terms except those in New Hampshire and Vermont, who serve two-year terms.

    Fourteen states do not have any limits on the number of terms a governor may serve. These states include:

    Elected vs. appointed

    Governors are directly elected in all 50 states.

    The office of the governor is a constitutionally mandated office in all states. Additionally, it is statewide, directly elected, and part of the executive branch in all 50 states.

    There are few cases when the position is filled by someone who was not elected:

    • Acting Governor: This term, not used in all states, applies to someone serving as governor who was not elected. When used, it applies to someone—often the lieutenant governor—temporarily discharging the office due to the short-term inability of the governor to do so. Usually, if the elected governor's inability to serve is permanent, his or her replacement will simply be addressed as governor.
    • Governor-designate: This term is rarely in use. It applies when there is a planned or anticipated vacancy in the governorship. For instance, in 2010, North Dakota's elected governor, John Hoeven, won a U.S. Senate seat. As 2010 was not a gubernatorial election year for North Dakota, when Hoeven won his race and prepared to leave the governor's office, he had to make an appointment to fulfill the gubernatorial term. Hoeven named his lieutenant governor, Jack Dalrymple, who had the title of governor-designate from election night 2010 until he actually took the gubernatorial oath of office the following month.
    • Governor-elect: This term applies to an elected governor who has not yet taken the oath of office. Governors-elect do not yet have any of the powers or duties of the office, though they may be accorded some of the privileges and honors in anticipation of their taking office.

    Governors who became presidents

    The office of governor is sometimes used as a springboard to the presidency. President Rutherford B. Hayes, former Republican governor of Ohio, was the first sitting governor to be elected president of the United States. That year, 1876, the Democrats also nominated a governor, Samuel Tilden of New York, to run for the office.[49] Seventeen presidents have previously served as governors. Those 17 candidates come from only 10 states. Four presidents have come from the gubernatorial office of New York, three from Virginia, and two each from Ohio and Tennessee. The others were from Arkansas, California, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Texas.[50]

    Approximately twice as many presidents have been governors at some point as have been senators. This is substantial since there are only half as many governors as senators at any given time.[51] 2008 marked the first year since 1972 that neither major party candidate had served as governor.[49]

    Past elections

    2015

    See also: State executive official elections, 2015

    Three states held regularly scheduled elections for governor in 2015:



    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms 'Gubernatorial election' OR 'Governor election' 2016. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Gubernatorial elections, 2016 - Google News

    Gubernatorial margin of victory analysis

    The following analysis details the margin of victory for winning candidates from the previous three elections in states that held regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections in 2016. Gubernatorial races in these states became more competitive between 2008 and 2012, with only North Carolina experiencing an increase in margin of victory. Democrats entered the 2016 election cycle with seven governor offices while Republicans held four of the seats on the ballot. Eight out of the 11 states listed below had been controlled by the same party since 2004; Democrats controlled five of those states.

    Margin of victory analysis, 2004-2012
    State 2012 margin of victory (%) Party of winning candidate, 2012 2008 margin of victory (%) Party of winning candidate, 2008 2004 margin of victory (%) Party of winning candidate, 2004
    Delaware 40.7 Electiondot.png Democratic 45.5 Electiondot.png Democratic 5.1 Electiondot.png Democratic
    Indiana 2.9 Ends.png Republican 17.7 Ends.png Republican 7.8 Ends.png Republican
    Missouri 12.3 Electiondot.png Democratic 18.9 Electiondot.png Democratic 3.0 Ends.png Republican
    Montana 1.6 Electiondot.png Democratic 32.9 Electiondot.png Democratic 4.4 Electiondot.png Democratic
    New Hampshire 12.1 Electiondot.png Democratic 42.6 Electiondot.png Democratic 2.2 Electiondot.png Democratic
    North Carolina 11.4 Ends.png Republican 3.4 Electiondot.png Democratic 12.7 Electiondot.png Democratic
    North Dakota 28.8 Ends.png Republican 50.9 Ends.png Republican 43.9 Ends.png Republican
    Utah 30.7 Ends.png Republican 57.9 Ends.png Republican 16.4 Ends.png Republican
    Vermont 20.2 Electiondot.png Democratic 31.6 Ends.png Republican 20.8 Ends.png Republican
    Washington 3.0 Electiondot.png Democratic 6.4 Electiondot.png Democratic 0.1 Electiondot.png Democratic
    West Virginia 4.7 Electiondot.png Democratic 44.1 Electiondot.png Democratic 29.5 Electiondot.png Democratic

    Voter turnout

    Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[56] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[57]

    Quick facts

    • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[58]
    • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia did not surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
    • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Texas (28.3 percent), Tennessee (28.6 percent), and Indiana (28.8 percent).
    • Maine (58.5 percent), Wisconsin (56.5 percent), and Colorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
    • Twelve states increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[59]

    Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

    See also

    Governor State Executive Elections News and Analysis
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    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Xerxes Wilson, Delaware Online: The News Journal, "Tom Gordon again faces trouble with closest ally," November 7, 2015
    2. ↑ The Indy Channel, "Longtime Bayh aide Tom Sugar exploring run for governor," accessed August 28, 2015
    3. ↑ IndyStar, "Democrat Tom Sugar will not run for Indiana governor," September 21, 2015
    4. ↑ The Indy Star, "State Sen. Karen Tallian drops out of governor’s race," accessed August 28, 2015
    5. ↑ The Indy Channel, "ITW: Gregg-Ritz duo sets sights on Gov. Mike Pence," accessed August 28, 2015
    6. ↑ The Indy Star, "Bill Oesterle's midlife crusade," accessed August 28, 2015
    7. ↑ Indianapolis Business Journal, "Oesterle starts PAC to counter social conservatives," December 7, 2015
    8. ↑ This information was provided to Ballotpedia by the Elections Division in the Indiana secretary of state's office.
    9. ↑ Auburnpub.com, "Indiana GOP governor candidate picks auditor as running mate," July 29, 2016
    10. ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "Unofficial Candidate Filing List," accessed March 31, 2016
    11. ↑ KOMU, "Republican Randy Asbury drops out of race for governor," September 25, 2015
    12. ↑ Dave Helling, The Kansas City Star, "Sen. Bob Dixon drops Missouri governor bid," November 24, 2015
    13. ↑ Steve Kraske, The Kansas City Star, "GOP source: Mike Parson will switch from governor's race to lieutenant governor," July 24, 2015
    14. ↑ Bozeman Daily Chronicle, "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016," accessed August 28, 2015
    15. ↑ The Laconia Daily Sun, "Hosmer for Governor?" August 24, 2015
    16. ↑ Political Wire, "Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire," October 5, 2015
    17. ↑ The primary for U.S. congressional elections was rescheduled to June 7, 2016, following legal challenges to North Carolina's district maps. State races were unaffected.
    18. ↑ Ken Spaulding for Governor, "Home," accessed August 22, 2015
    19. ↑ News & Observer, "53 NC legislators lack opponents as filing period ends," accessed December 22, 2015
    20. ↑ WBT radio, Gary D. Robertson, "Spaulding officially a candidate for North Carolina governor," accessed December 22, 2015
    21. ↑ John Hageman, Forum News Service, "Becker, a candidate for North Dakota governor, argues for small role for government," November 14, 2015
    22. ↑ Star Tribune, "North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple says he won't seek re-election in 2016, cites family," August 24, 2015
    23. ↑ RedState, "North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s retirement puts Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in quite the pickle," August 25, 2015
    24. ↑ Valley News Live, "North Dakota Lt. Governor Drew Wrigley says he will not run for governor after admitting affair," September 28, 2015
    25. ↑ Kitzhaber served as Governor of Oregon from 1995-2003; 2011-2015.
    26. ↑ The Register-Guard, "Governor: Brown, Alley," April 15, 2016
    27. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed February 1, 2016
    28. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed February 1, 2016
    29. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate Information: Cliff W Thomason," accessed March 9, 2016
    30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named sos
    31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.3 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named sabato
    32. ↑ Hillary Borrud, East Oregonian, "Johnson tour sparks speculation she’s running for governor," August 16, 2015
    33. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named middle
    34. ↑ The Oregonian, "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House," August 25, 2015
    35. ↑ The Register-Guard, "Sid Leiken mulling run for governor," April 27, 2015
    36. ↑ The Oregonian, "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race," April 23, 2015
    37. ↑ The Oregonian, "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all," September 2, 2015
    38. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes," accessed May 25, 2017
    39. ↑ WPTZ, "Former State Rep. John Moran won't run for governor," March 17, 2016
    40. ↑ Burlington Free Press, "Shap Smith files to run for governor," August 13, 2015
    41. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Frequently Asked Questions on Voting by Mail," accessed August 2, 2016
    42. ↑ Politico, “Election Map 2008,” accessed February 13, 2016
    43. ↑ 43.0 43.1 Campbell, J. E. "The revised theory of surge and decline." American Journal of Political Science 31, 4. (1987): 965-979.
    44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 Pew Research Center, “Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?” July 24, 2014
    45. ↑ TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
    46. ↑ With the exception of Oregon, whose current Gov. Kate Brown (D) succeeded Democrat John Kitzhaber after his resignation from office.
    47. ↑ (notable exceptions with very weak governorships include Texas)
    48. ↑ For a total of 52 elections every four years; the extra two elections result from shorter terms in New Hampshire and Vermont
    49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 Politico, "Will a Governor Win the White House in 2016?" February 17, 2014
    50. ↑ Rutger's Center on the American Governor, "Governors Who Became President," accessed February 18, 2014
    51. ↑ New York Times, "The Governors’ Advantage in Presidential Races Is Bigger Than You Thought," June 15, 2011
    52. ↑ Huffington Post, "Gov. Steve Beshear urges fellow Democrats to take Obamacare 'and run with it,'" June 24, 2014
    53. ↑ The Times-Picayune, "Term limits have Louisiana politicians searching for new elections," October 20, 2013
    54. ↑ NPR, "Republican Governors Gear Up For Election Gains," October 18, 2012
    55. ↑ Politico, "Dems sound alarm on state races," July 23, 2010
    56. ↑ United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
    57. ↑ TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
    58. ↑ PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
    59. ↑ U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014
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