Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 17 (May 7, 2018)
This week: Voters head to the polls May 8 in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. We preview top Democratic primaries there. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.
“Democratic leaders remember all too well the failure of Republican leaders in 2010 to take control of the Senate. In the 2010 midterm elections it was the Republican Party that was riding high, fueled by the energy of the Tea Party movement and hostility to President Barack Obama’s health care plan. They won the House of Representatives, but while they picked up six seats in the Senate, they came up short of control.” - Elaine Kamarck, The New York Times, May 3, 2018
“The thing the DCCC seems concerned with above all others is candidate “viability” and electability in the general election. But as my colleague Matt Yglesias wrote, the evidence simply isn’t there to show that voters want to choose “electable” moderates — especially in an era of increased polarization.” - Ella Nilsen, Vox, May 3, 2018
Upcoming filing deadlines: May 18 (Washington), May 30 (Arizona), May 31 (Vermont)
Passed filing deadlines: 37
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia), May 15 (Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,224 Democrats, 985 Republicans
May 8 primaries preview
Progressive support divided in Ohio gubernatorial primary
Former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray (D) and former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) lead a six-candidate field for Ohio’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Both candidates have received support from progressive figures, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), backing Cordray and the Bernie Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution supporting Kucinich.
Kucinich and his supporters have attacked Cordray's position on firearms, criticizing him for receiving the endorsement of the Buckeye Firearms Association while serving as the state attorney general.
Cordray supporters have criticized Kucinich for statements he made in support of Donald Trump (R), including a congratulatory tweet after the president's inaugural address. Kucinich opponents have also criticized him for accepting speaking fees from groups and individuals who support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
McCready takes on 2016 Democratic nominee Cano in NC-09
Marine Corps veteran Dan McCready (D) faces hotel industry consultant Christian Cano (D) in the Democratic primary for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District.
McCready raised $1.9 million—more than incumbent Rep. Robert Pittenger (R)—and was named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program. He has been compared to Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District victor Conor Lamb (D).
The Charlotte Observer’s Taylor Batten wrote that McCready “emphasiz[es] his stint in the military…as a big part of his centrist, country-first persona.”
Cano, who raised $40,000, was the 2016 Democratic nominee for the seat. He lost to Pittenger by 16 points. Cano is running to McCready’s the left and has accused him of being "a milquetoast [and] Republican lite.”
Progressives war with Cuyahoga County Democratic Party over Ohio State Senate seat
The larger fight between progressive activists and county party leaders over control of the body’s central committee reaches into the primary battle to replace Ohio state Sen. Michael Skindell in the Cleveland-based 23rd District.
Progressives back state Rep. Nickie Antonio while the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party supports state Rep. Martin Sweeney.
Groups allied with Antonio have highlighted the city’s settlement of a sexual harassment claim against Sweeney in 2007. Sweeney’s allies have accused Antonio of misleading voters into thinking the county party endorsed her.
U.S. Congress
U.S. House: * Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 235
- Open seats: 53
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate: * Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Former Bush administration lawyer runs as Democrat in Minnesota Senate race
Richard Painter, vice chair of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics and former Bush administration ethics lawyer, is challenging incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) for the Minnesota Senate.
Painter framed his decision to run as a Democrat as a rejection of Donald Trump. Painter said the GOP “insists that one must be loyal to Trump and his corrupt administration to run for federal office.”
“My loyalties are to the United States of America. And I will make my message to the Republican Party very clear: I QUIT."
Painter will not accept donations from super PACs or run negative campaign ads against Smith. He said he wanted the Democratic Party to go into the November election unified.
Grayson seeks his old seat in FL-09
Former Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is challenging his successor, Rep. Darren Michael Soto (D), for his old seat in Florida’s 9th Congressional District.
Grayson made an unsuccessful senate bid in 2016 rather than seek re-election to his House seat. Soto defeated Grayson’s wife, Deena Grayson, and former adviser, Susannah Randolph, in the 2016 Democratic primary.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it is “supportive of congressman Soto.”
Grayson said he doesn’t “need anyone’s permission to run for office. What I’ve done is ask the people.”
Governors
Open seats 17 Open seats held by a Democrat 4 Open seats held by a Republican 13 States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton 8 States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump 1
Thanedar and El-Sayed challenge each other’s ballot eligibility
Michigan gubernatorial candidates Shri Thanedar (D) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) filed challenges to each others' eligibility for the ballot Tuesday.
Thanedar’s challenge rests on El-Sayed’s residency in New York between 2013 and 2016 while attending medical school. Michigan gubernatorial candidates are required to have been registered voters in the state for the four years preceding Election Day.
El-Sayed's is challenging the validity of Thanedar's nominating petitions, alleging the secretary of state's office accepted signatures that did not meet legal standards.
Thanedar, El-Sayed, and former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D) are running in the Aug. 7 primary, which is open to all voters.
Democracy for America endorses Nixon
Actress Cynthia Nixon’s (D) challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) earned additional support Wednesday when Democracy for America endorsed her campaign.
The group, founded by former Vermont governor and presidential candidate Howard Dean (D), claims to have 150,000 members in New York.
The announcement followed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D) endorsement of Cuomo Tuesday.
Cuomo has additional endorsements from Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and unions, including the 1199-SEIU. Progressive organizations, including the Working Families Party, have endorsed Nixon.
Cuomo and Nixon are the only candidates to date who have filed for the Sept. 13 primary. The filing deadline is July 12. The primary is open only to registered Democrats.
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 39.6 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 12.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 60.5 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 60.3 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Progressive challengers shaking up Oregon state legislative primaries
Progressive challengers campaigning on housing, the environment, and abolishing the Electoral College are taking aim at longtime incumbents, party leaders, and open seats in Oregon’s May 15 state legislative primaries. Here are the primaries we are watching.
Senate District 24
State Sen. Rod Monroe has been in office since 1976 and usually supports Democratic priorities. But his views on housing policy drew challenges from former state Rep. Shemia Fagan and Unite Oregon Executive Director Kayse Jama.
Both disagree with Monroe, a landlord for an apartment complex in East Portland, on his opposition to rent controls and his support for no cause evictions.
Developers and the real estate industry back Monroe, while unions and trial lawyers support Fagan. Some progressives fear Jama could split the anti-Monroe voter and allow him to win re-election.
Senate District 11
Senate President Peter Courtney’s opposition to progressive legislation on health care, environmental policy, and electing the U.S. president via the national popular vote drew a challenge from Joyce Judy.
The group National Popular Vote launched a $100,000 anti-Courtney campaign in December. The group argues for an interstate compact that, if enough states join, would allow for the selection of the U.S. president through the popular vote, not the Electoral College.
House District 32
Three Democrats are vying to replace Deborah Boone in the coastal area District west of Portland.
Environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers back child welfare worker Tiffiny Mitchell. Mitchell wants to raise corporate taxes to pay for social services and charge the state’s largest greenhouse gas producers for their emissions.
Former state Rep. and Tillamook County Commissioner Tim Josi describes himself as a conservative Democrat. Party leaders oppose his candidacy, while logging, agricultural, and grocery companies are supporting him.
Energy contractor and municipal judge Jon Orr is running on a platform similar to Mitchell’s. Funded largely by small donations, Orr said outside groups are trying to influence the race.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here. ==What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official? == "Honesty, integrity, and a willingness and ability to listen! I am running because we need people in Congress of the highest integrity – people who respect and value America’s diverse population, cultural traditions, and religious beliefs."
- Grant Goodrich, candidate for Ohio's 16th Congressional District
Read all of Grant Goodrich's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Cuyahoga County Democratic Party
Progressives are attempting to seize control of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party amid Ohio’s state legislative primaries.
Progressive activists said they filed hundreds of candidates for committee seats. According to news reports, almost 1,000 candidates filed for the roughly 730 committee slots, though some of those candidates have withdrawn or may not qualify for the ballot.
The conflict has bled into the state’s House elections. In some districts, such as Districts 10 and 13, the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party is pitting its endorsed candidates against those of the Cuyahoga County Progressive Caucus.
Cleveland.com’s Andrew Tobias said the county is “of key political importance” for Democrats across the state.
The clash will also be in the background as the party decides in June whether to re-elect Party Chairwoman Shontel Brown.
What we’re reading
- “Is Stacey Abrams Assembling a New Democratic Majority?” (The New York Times)
- “In Pennsylvania race, it’s Tom Steyer’s money vs. Bud Selig’s money” (The Washington Post)
- “Can a Tennessee Democrat Pull a Doug Jones?” (The New York Times)
- “Have Special Elections Warped Our Sense of the Midterms?” (The New York Times)
