Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 20 (June 4, 2018)
This week: Previewing the June 5 primaries.Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: June 5 (Hawaii, Minnesota, Massachusetts), June 12 (Connecticut)
Passed filing deadlines: 43
Upcoming elections: June 5 (Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,189 Democrats, 973 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
"The story of a party grappling with unity is a classic political tale — and the divided party often loses. As Democrats try to take back the House this fall, they’ll need to be united across the country, and specifically in California, where they need to make big gains.
Losing this one race won’t ruin Democrats’ chances of taking back the House outright, but it is a test for a party trying to win in much more Trumpian districts than this one. If they can’t win where Hillary won, where can they?"
- Tara Golshan, Vox, June 1, 2018
"There’s been mention of a “battle between progressives and moderates” (The Guardian), a Democratic “identity crisis” (The Post), a “full-blown Democratic war” (CNN), a “civil war” (Fox News) and a “fight for the future of the Democratic Party” (BuzzFeed).
But if a civil war has been declared, somebody forgot to tell Democratic voters. They are stubbornly refusing to view 2018 through the progressive/moderate, insurgent/establishment lens."
- Dana Milbank, The Washington Post, May 25, 2018
June 5 primaries preview
California
The defining feature of California's primary elections is the top-two system, in which all candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the November election. Under this system, two candidates of the same party can advance, locking the other party out.
California Democrats are watching races up and down the ballot, with a focus on seven GOP-held House districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
Democrats might be locked out in five of those House races, particularly in the 39th, 48th, and 49th Districts. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and House Majority PAC have spent a combined $6 million in those contests in hopes of advancing Democratic contenders to the general election.
See the Power Players section for more information on the DCCC's role in this year’s Democratic primaries.
Governor
Political strategists consider Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) a favorite to take first place in the gubernatorial primary, setting up a contest for the second spot on the November ballot.
Businessman John Cox (R) leads the Republican field, and has the president’s endorsement. Cox told the New York Times his opposition to sanctuary cities and the state gas tax will help him win swing voters in the primary.
Assemblyman Travis Allen (R) believes "all we need to do is turn out the Trump voters" in order to make it to the next round. Like Cox, Allen has campaigned against the gas tax, supporting a referendum for its repeal.
Cox and Allen's most significant threat in the race for second is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), who is campaigning in areas such as the Central Valley which have tended to back Republican candidates in recent elections.
U.S. Senate
Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) faces 31 challengers in the Senate primary. State Sen. Kevin de Léon (D) is fighting for the second spot, but Republican Patrick Little or another Democrat may win given the large field.
CA-39
This is one of the contests where Democrats are worried about a lockout. Former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) is expected to finish in first place, leaving 16 other candidates contending for the second ballot slot.
Republican candidates Bob Huff and Shawn Moody are viewed as potential contenders for the second spot, prompting the DCCC to campaign against both of them. The House Majority PAC has taken a different tack, spending $1.95 million in support of Republican Phil Liberatore in hopes of dividing the remaining GOP vote between Huff, Moody, and Liberatore.
Four of the six Democratic candidates have received significant national backing. The DCCC is backing Gil Cisneros (D), while the progressive group Our Revolution supports Andy Thorburn (D).
CA-48
If Democrats are going to be locked out anywhere Tuesday, observers say it will happen in the 48th District.
Incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) faces a challenge from Scott Baugh (R), a former Orange County GOP chairman.
To stop Baugh from taking second place, the DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent $2.93 million running negative ads targeting both Rohrabacher and Baugh.
Democrats have tried to consolidate behind the strongest candidates. The effort convinced three Democrats to drop out. The DCCC is backing Harley Rouda and the state party has endorsed Hans Keirstead.
Republicans strategists are working to boost the chances of a Democratic lock out with national groups backing Baugh's candidacy. One Republican candidate, Stelian Onufrei, withdrew and endorsed Baugh.
CA-49
Another potential lockout looms for Democrats in the race for retiring Rep. Darrell Issa's (R) seat. Sixteen candidates are running, including four Democrats and eight Republicans.
Party leaders and national groups are behind all four Democrats, though none of them was able to win the state party’s endorsement at its February convention. Three of the Republican candidates have also picked up support.
The House Majority PAC and DCCC have spent $1.29 million to oppose Rocky Chavez (R).
CA-10
In California’s 10th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) faces six challengers and the prospect of an election rematch from farm manager Michael Eggman (D) is challenging Denham for the third time.
CA-25
Incumbent Rep. Steve Knight is the sole Republican in the race for California’s 25th, a district Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Bryan Caforio (D), who lost to Knight by 6 percentage points in 2016, is challenging him again. Caforio and nonprofit executive Katie Hill have emerged as Democratic frontrunners in the race, with each having earned endorsements from numerous progressive groups.
CA-45
Incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters is the only Republican running for California’s 45th District. The race for second place is a three-way battle between Democratic tech entrepreneur Brian Forde and UC Irvine law professors Dave Min, the state party’s choice, and Katie Porter, who is backed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
CA-50
In California's 50th Congressional District, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) faces well-financed primary challenges from both parties.
Small-business owner Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) and former Navy SEAL Josh Butner (D) are challenging Hunter from the left. Campa-Najjar leads all candidates in fundraising, including Hunter, and has the state party’s endorsement. Butner has gained support from national figures, including the PACs of House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Caucus Chairman Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.).
Republicans Shamus Sayed and Bill Wells are also running.
State legislature
In California’s state legislative primaries, several Democratic challenges were sparked by sexual misconduct allegations.
Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia, a former #MeToo leader, took a leave of absence after former male staffers accused her of harassing them. She faces six challengers as well as opposition from the State Building and Construction Trades Council.
State Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) and Assemblymen Raul Bocanegra (D) and Matt Dababneh (D) resigned over sexual misconduct allegations, creating open races with multiple Democrats running to replace them. Mendoza said he was unfairly forced out by Kevin de Leon and is running to reclaim his former seat.
Iowa
IA-01
In Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, a DCCC endorsee who has raised more than $1 million, faces three primary challengers.
The other top candidate is Thomas Heckroth, a former aide to U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin (D), has raised more than $300,000 and run some television ads. Finkenauer has locked up support from a host of Democratic influencers, including most local unions and EMILY’s List.
If no candidate receives more than 35 percent of the vote, the nominee will be chosen in a convention, and then face incumbent Rep. Rod Blum (R) in what’s rated as a toss-up general election.
IA-03
To the west, small-business owner Cindy Axne, political organizer Pete D'Alessandro, and teacher Eddie Mauro are competing in the 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary.
Axne has received support from several local figures, while D'Alessandro, who ran the Sanders presidential campaign in Iowa in 2016, has Sanders’ endorsement. Mauro has support from the Central Iowa Building and Construction Trades Council and state Sen. Tony Bisignano.
Governor
Iowa’s Democratic gubernatorial primary was upended May 24 when state Sen. Nate Boulton (D) suspended his campaign following multiple accusations of sexual misconduct.
Boulton’s name remains on the ballot and the five remaining candidates are hoping to attract his supporters.
Retired insurance executive Fred Hubbell (D) emerged as a top candidate, leading in multiple polls and raising more than $3 million. Former Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman Andrea “Andy” McGuire (D) and nurse and union leader Cathy Glasson (D) are also seeking the nomination.
New Jersey
NJ-02
With incumbent Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.) retiring, Democrats are looking to turn New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District blue.
Former DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson said these is “no path to the majority for Democrats without making inroads in the New York and New Jersey suburbs.”
Party officials have rallied around state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-N.J.) who has raised more than five times as much money as his rivals, retired teacher Tanzie Youngblood (D), former Cory Booker staffer Will Cunningham (D), and activist Nathan Kleinman (D).
NJ-11
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s (R) retirement and Donald Trump's narrow victory here in 2016 have led Democrats to target New Jersey's 11th District as a potential pickup opportunity.
Five Democrats are seeking the nomination. Former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill has the financial and organizational backing of the DCCC.
Sherrill's stiffest challenge comes from Tamara Harris, who emphasizes her experience in social work and her business background. Harris has the support of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and the Social Workers PAC.
New Mexico
NM-01
Six Democrats are running in the open seat race for the safely Democratic 1st Congressional District.
National Democratic officials have united behind former New Mexico Democratic Party Chairwoman Debra Haaland (D), while the Latino Victory Fund and People for Bernie Sanders back Antoinette Sedillo Lopez (D). Outside PACs VoteVets and With Honor Fund have spent more than $770,000 supporting former U.S. Attorney Damon Martinez (D).
State legislature
One state legislative primary to watch is Susan Herrera’s (D) challenge of state Rep. Debbie Rodella (D). Herrera, the former director of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, says Rodella is too conservative for her district on a range of issues, including same-sex marriage, abortion, and gun policy.
Special guest analysis: Minnesota state conventions
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Minnesota's state party conventions. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
The two major Minnesota parties held their state conventions this weekend, and each made controversial non-binding endorsements for governor in advance of the August state primary. As expected, 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jeff Johnson (he lost) was endorsed again, but he will face former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty, who did not seek endorsement, in the primary. Unexpectedly, early Democratic (DFL) favorite, retiring Congressman Tim Walz, was upset for party endorsement by DFL State Representative Erin Murphy who ran to Walz's left. Both endorsees face possible defeat by their better-known challengers in the primary, as both party organizations face popular decline.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What qualities do you possess that you believe would make you a successful officeholder?
"My training in the scientific method has shown me how to analyze a problem or situation from all possible angles, to always ask for help from experts when I am not familiar with a particular topic, and to solve problems creatively when few resources or options are available." - Jess Phoenix, candidate for California’s 25th Congressional District Read all of Jess Phoenix's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Democrats’ hopes of retaking the U.S. House may depend on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) performance Tuesday’s California primaries.
To avoid general election lockouts, the DCCC has either endorsed individual candidates or attacked top Republicans in the 39th, 48th, and 49th District primaries. Hillary Clinton won each of those Districts in 2016.
The DCCC originally supported Hans Keirstead in the 48th District primary, but later switched and endorsed Harley Rouda. With incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) likely to advance, Keirstead and Rouda could be beat out for the second general election spot by Republican Scott Baugh.
Keirstead criticized the DCCC, saying it “hasn’t exactly been known for making great primary decisions.”
The group drew criticism earlier this year when it came out against Laura Moser, a progressive candidate in the Texas 7th Congressional District primary. Moser made the Democratic runoff despite the DCCC’s opposition, but lost that race to Lizzie Pannill Fletcher.
Mindy Martin, a Democratic voter in Issa’s district, wishes the DCCC would have backed “the best candidate” rather than attacking Republicans. “Isn’t that the role of the party?” she asked.
What we’re reading
- Democrats Go All-Out to Avoid Disaster in California House Races (The New York Times)
- The Party *Doesn’t* Decide (The Cook Political Report)
- Democratic Campaign Committee Endorses NRA-Backed Blue Dogs in Midterm Elections (The New Yorker)
- In Three California House Races, Wealthy Democrats Have Spent $16 Million of Their Own Money, So Far (The Intercept)
