Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 21 (June 11, 2018)

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Issue No. 21

This week: previewing the June 12 primaries. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: June 12 (Connecticut), June 15 (New Hampshire)
Passed filing deadlines: 46
Upcoming elections: June 12 (North Dakota, Maine, Nevada, Virginia, South Carolina)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,184 Democrats, 980 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“Though it feels like the odds for liberals have gone from overwhelmingly positive to desperate quickly, the reality is a bit duller. As a country we have, in many ways, failed to process some of the key lessons of the 2016 campaign. Modest-sized polling errors are common, events are important to politics and they are inherently unpredictable. But Democrats retain an edge in the polls, and the results from California continue to suggest that Democrats are modest favorites to win a House majority.”

• Matt Yglesias, Vox, June 7, 2018

“On Tuesday, Cox advanced to the runoff. His presence on the ballot is a blow to Democratic House candidates who worry that Republicans will have more of a reason to show up to the polls in November, as well as Villaraigosa backers who supported a rival Republican in the hopes of dragging Cox into third.”

• Osita Nwanevu, Slate, June 6, 2018

June 12 preview

Well-funded candidates vie for nomination in toss-up VA-10

Six well-funded candidates are competing in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District—a toss-up seat that simultaneously backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election and re-elected Republican incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock.

Three frontrunners have raised $1,000,000 or more through May: senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D), and Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D).

Wexton has rounded up endorsements from state figures like Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and Rep. Gerald Connolly (D), while other candidates are using advertising to try to break through the pack.

Helmer gained attention after releasing an undercover video showing him purchase a semi-automatic rifle without a background check at a gun show, and was boosted by a $175,000 ad buy from VoteVets.

Friedman had the largest fundraising haul of any Democrat in the race, bringing in $2.4 million, but she has been criticized for moving to Virginia from Washington, D.C. shortly before becoming a candidate.

Nevada governor’s race gets personal

Clark County Commissioners Chris Giunchigliani (D) and Steve Sisolak (D) have led the Democratic gubernatorial primary in both campaign spending and endorsements. As the campaign nears the finish, it’s taken a nasty turn. The pro-Sisolak Clark County Education Association spent $300,000 on ads alleging Giunchigliani “single-handedly protected perverts and kept parents in the dark about their child’s teacher,” referring to her 2005 opposition to require teachers who have sex with an underage student to register as sex offenders.

Giunchigliani responded with an ad saying that she was the victim of childhood sexual abuse and had helped pass five laws against sexual assault. The Nevada AFL-CIO and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) back Giunchigliani, while former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) endorsed Sisolak.

Ranked-choice voting defining factor in Maine gubernatorial election

Maine will use ranked-choice voting statewide for the first time in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The new system poses unique challenges to frontrunner Attorney General Janet Mills (D) and her six opponents.

Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank their choices in order of preference from among the available candidates. Votes are tabulated in rounds. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote after the first round, the lowest ranked candidate is eliminated. Voters whose candidate is eliminated have their ballots re-allocated, with their next ranked choice getting their votes in the following round. The process continues until one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote.

Former state House Speaker Mark Eves (D) and activist Betsy Sweet (D) are using the system to promote each other. The pair were endorsed by the Working Families Party Tuesday, and Wednesday, released a video urging their supporters to select the other candidate as a second choice.

U.S. Congress

DCCC-endorsed candidates dominate House primaries

Through June 5, DCCC-backed candidates are have won 14 of 15 primaries, with the only loss coming in Nebraska’s 2nd District, where Kara Eastman defeated Brad Ashford.

During the June 5 primaries, DCCC candidates won at least six primaries across California, Iowa, New Jersey, and New Mexico. California’s 48th District primary California is still too close to call.

There is often tension between party-backed candidates and progressives. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) criticized DNC Chairman Tom Perez for endorsing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo over progressive challenger Cynthia Nixon.

Sanders said party endorsements in primaries would alienate working people and young people from the party.

CD-06 race sees second-highest amount spent on political ads

Spending in both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the 6th Congressional District topped $2.5 million, with over $1.3 million spent on the Democratic primary.

Only the governor’s race has seen greater spending on ads.

Democrats Jason Crow and Levi Tillemann face off in the June 26 primary. Crow received early support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, while Progressive Democrats of America back Tillemann.

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow and why?

“John McCain. Though I disagree with many of his policy positions, he is the embodiment of patriotism, integrity, and grit. I hope that his party finds a standard-bearer as worthy as he.”

• Eric Stoltz, candidate for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District

Read all of Eric Stoltz's responses →

Special guest analysis: Musical chairs in Minnesota

Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Minnesota's DFL convention. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.

Half of Minnesota’s eight congressional districts were expected to be “no contest” in the 2018 midterms. But the state’s topsy-turvy politics have suddenly produced an unpredictable primary battle in one of those no-contests following an ideological insurrection at the Democratic (DFL) state convention.

DFL incumbent Keith Ellison has been winning with more than 70 percent of the vote in this very liberal urban Minneapolis/west suburban 5th District which has not sent a Republican to Congress for decades. After three-term DFL Attorney General Lori Swanson surprisingly failed to win endorsement at the June DFL convention, she withdrew from that race, switching to the race for governor. Ellison then announced his retirement from Congress, and filed to run for attorney general only two days before the filing deadline. This left a sudden and huge vacuum in the 5th District congressional race.

Nonetheless, a number of DFL hopefuls showed up to file with almost no notice, including former DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, three-term state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray, freshman state Rep. Ilhan Omar, and two-term state Sen. Bobby Joe Campion.

The state convention demonstrated the widening gap between liberal and radical DFL factions, and nowhere is this gestating political civil war been more evident than in Minneapolis. This division also makes the outcome of the wave of musical chairs in the August primary and November general election very uncertain. There is no opportunity for a GOP pickup in MN-5. But the identity and ideology of the new 5th District DFL member of Congress is up for grabs.

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State executives

Greene in, Murphy out in Florida gubernatorial race

Real estate developer Jeff Greene (D) joined the six-candidate Democratic gubernatorial primary field.

Greene backed Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, but urged Democrats to support President Trump rather than focusing on electoral victories after he took office.

Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), who had been mulling a run alongside former Rep. David Jolly (R), announced Thursday he would not seek the Democratic nomination and endorsed former Rep. Gwen Graham (D) instead.

Maloney enters NY attorney general race, may continue running for NY-18 seat

U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) is joining New York City Public Advocate Tish James in the New York attorney general Democratic primary.

The race heated up after incumbent Eric Schneiderman (D) resigned over sexual assault allegations. James entered the race with the support of prominent New York Democrats.

Maloney will decide whether to continue running for his 18th Congressional District seat after the Sept. 13 primary. Trump won the District by 2 percentage points, making it a potentially competitive seat if Maloney does not run.

Special guest analysis: Nevada gubernatorial primaries

Dan McCaleb is news director of Watchdog.org. We invited him to share analysis of Nevada's gubernatorial primaries. Click here for more from Watchdog.org.

The bruising, expensive campaign between two Clark County commissioners for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination is winding down.

The stakes couldn't be much higher. Term limits prevent popular GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval from seeking a third term, and national analysts give the Democratic primary winner a legitimate shot in November's general election.

If that scenario plays out, either businessman Steve Sisolak or educator Chris Giunchigliani would become Nevada's first Democratic governor since the 1990s.

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves...

Legislatures

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington***, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 25.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 2.9 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 27.4 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 59.6 percent.

*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries

Democrats continue to split over IDC in New York Senate primaries

Although the New York Senate’s Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) has re-aligned with mainline Democrats, party leaders are still split on whether to back former IDC members or their progressive challengers in the Sept. 13 primaries.

U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler joined New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and former city Mayor David Dinkins in backing former New York City Councilman Robert Jackson’s challenge of former IDC state Sen. Marisol Alcantara.

However, Senate Democratic Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins endorsed Alcantara and the seven other former IDC members at the state Democratic convention in May.

Moreover, the Queens County Democratic Party, which is controlled by U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley (D), endorsed former IDC state Sens. Jose Peralta and Tony Avella.

With the IDC back in the fold, Democrats have a 32-31 majority in the chamber but Republicans retain operation control because state Sen. Simcha Felder (D) caucuses with them.

Two New Mexico state House incumbents lose to progressive challengers

New Mexico state Reps. Debbie Rodella and Carlos Trujillo both lost to progressive challengers Tuesday. Susan Herrera defeated Rodella, and Andrea Romero beat Trujillo.

Both seats are safely Democratic, which led Herrera and Romero to argue the incumbents were too conservative for their districts. Both incumbents voted to ban late-term abortions in 2015.

Trujillo was also facing sexual harassment allegations from a state capitol lobbyist.

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Clark County Education Association

The Clark County Education Association (CCEA) is running ads opposing teacher Chris Giunchigliani ahead of Nevada’s June 12 gubernatorial primary. The CCEA recently split from its parent union, the Nevada State Education Association (NSEA).

The two unions have backed opposing candidates, with the CCEA endorsing Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak and the NSEA backing Giunchigliani.

The first ad criticizes Giunchigliani for paying her late husband for campaign work. The second accuses Giunchigliani of “singlehandedly protecting perverts,” a reference to her work on an amendment to a bill when she was a state assemblywoman.

Giunchigliani defended the amendment in an op-ed, calling it “deeply personal and important to me,” and that it created “the community notification website for sex offenders, and strengthened punishments on predators.” Giunchigliani said the bill would not have passed without the amendment.

What we're reading

• Why Democrats are happy with Tuesday’s primary results The Washington Post
• Are There Clues About The 2020 Democratic Primary In 2018’s Contests? FiveThirtyEight
• Is the blue wave crashing? 11 experts on Democrats’ chances in 2018. Vox
• Trump and taxes will dominate the governor's race for the next five months Los Angeles Times