Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 30 (August 27, 2018)

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Issue No. 30

This week: Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma take the spotlight. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 28 (Arizona, Florida), Sept. 4 (Massachusetts)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,185 Democrats, 1,034 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“In order for any attempt to impeach Trump to even get off the ground, the midterm elections are crucial. Many Democrats will be mobilised by the possibility of impeachment. But so will many Republicans. Polling suggests that Republican voters are more set in their opposition to impeaching Trump than Democrats are in support of impeaching him. It is possible that impeachment would be counter-productive on the doorstep for Democrats, which is why Democratic congressional leaders are not pushing it.”

• Martin Kettle, The Guardian, Aug. 22, 2018

“The thing is, no matter what I say, no matter what Nancy Pelosi says, this election, to a very large extent, will be a referendum on this president and his administration. I don’t think there’s any question about that, and so I think that anybody who is running for office should be speaking plainly to the American people about what we are going to do about a lawless, reckless, and dangerous president. Of course, they should be addressing that.

I find it almost amusing to listen to the people who say, ‘this president has committed treason, but we shouldn’t impeach him.’”

• Tom Steyer, Variety, Aug. 22, 2018

Arizona

Kirkpatrick and Heinz compete in 2nd District Democratic primary

Incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R) announced her bid for U.S. Senate in January, leaving this swing district open to a newcomer. Former 1st Congressional District representative Ann Kirkpatrick and former state Rep. Matt Heinz are top candidates among the seven running in the Democratic primary.

Kirkpatrick and Heinz have sparred over who is more progressive, criticizing one another's records on gun policy and health care.

Gubernatorial candidates represent different approaches to general election

Arizona State professor David Garcia and state Sen. Steve Farley are the leading candidates for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. They have different strategies for defeating incumbent Doug Ducey (R) in November.

Garcia emphasizes his opposition to Ducey’s education policies and supports tuition-free college and abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Democracy for America, Planned Parenthood, and the Arizona Education Association endorsed him.

Farley has emphasized his appeal to independent and centrist voters, saying he is not trying to “go to the left as far as you can.” Former U.S. Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Ron Barber, both of whom represented swing congressional districts, have endorsed Farley.

A mid-August poll showed Garcia with a 15 percentage point lead over Farley.

Twenty-seven Arizona educators running in Democratic state legislative primaries

At least 27 educators are running in Democratic state legislative primaries. Four are challenging incumbents, while the rest are running for open seats.

In late May and early April, Arizona teachers staged a statewide walkout, calling for higher salaries and additional education funding. The strike ended when Gov. Doug Ducey (R) signed legislation increasing teacher pay 20 percent over five years and restoring $371 million in recession-era cuts.

Four other states--Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and West Virginia--also had teacher walkouts in early 2018. Each of those states saw an increased number of teachers running and a higher-than-usual number of incumbent losses in their state legislative primaries.

Florida

Five Democrats face-off for gubernatorial nomination

Florida Democrats will choose a nominee from among five major candidates for governor. The candidates all have similar policy platforms, but each argues she or he is best suited to become the first Democrat to win the office since 1994. Election forecasters call the general election a “toss-up.”

Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Gov. Bob Graham, says she is the only candidate who can win in Republican-leaning areas like North Florida. Many state and national Democratic officials and organizations, including EMILY’s List, endorsed her.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has endorsements from the party’s progressive wing, including U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. Gillum highlights his support for Medicare-For-All and says he can motivate voters who might otherwise stay home.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine says his record in local government proves he would be an effective governor, particularly when it comes to environmental policy and gun regulations. He has donated $22 million to his own campaign.

Real estate investor Jeff Greene has self-funded nearly $30 million and says he is the only candidates with the resources to compete with Republicans. Greene says he will spend his own money on down-ballot candidates if nominated.

Entrepreneur Chris King says his policies, including a tax on ammunition and changes to the criminal justice system, would bring voters to the polls.

Most polling shows Graham, Levine, and Gillum in a close race for first place.

Soto faces a challenge from Grayson in FL-09

Incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D) has the backing of the DCCC in his re-election bid in Florida’s 9th Congressional District. Former Rep. Alan Grayson has returned to try to win back his former seat, painting Soto as insufficiently progressive and unwilling to impeach President Donald Trump.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) expressed regret Grayson decided to challenge Soto, who she described as important to the party “generationally and also in terms of issues that relate to Puerto Rico.” Pelosi said while Grayson as a very progressive member of Congress, “I wish he would run for a different seat.”

Our Revolution Orlando and Blue America PAC endorsed Grayson, who had a $500,000 cash on hand advantage over Soto as of Aug. 8.

In addition to backing from the DCCC, Joe Biden (D), the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and The Human Rights Campaign have endorsed Soto.

Moderate attorney and progressive veteran fight for nomination in FL-15

Attorney Kristen Carlson (D) and Navy veteran and school owner Andrew Learned (D) are running for the Democratic nomination for Florida's 15th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat currently held by retiring incumbent Dennis Ross (R).

An ideological divide defines this race. Carlson describes herself as moderate—liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal matters. Carlson emphasizes her commitment to public service through her legal work investigating juice companies who falsely advertised and tampered with products.

Learned’s campaign ads highlight his commitment to support Medicare for All and refusal to accept corporate PAC money. The progressive organizations Indivisible and Our Revolution Tampa Bay have endorsed him.

Three running for chance to capture Republican-held FL-27

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala, state Rep. David Richardson, and former Knight Foundation Director Matt Haggman are the leading Democratic candidates for Florida’s 27th District, currently held by retiring U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R).

The general election is rated “Lean Democratic” and Hillary Clinton won it by 20 percentage points in 2016.

Three leading candidates dropped out when Shalala entered the primary in March, several months behind the other candidates. But Haggman and Richardson remained and have criticized Shalala for, among other things, her past donations to Republicans and opposition to single-payer health care.

All three candidates released internal polls in early August showing Shalala leading the field by 10 to 18 percentage points.

Lawson and Brown face-off in FL-05

Incumbent Rep. Al Lawson (D-Fla.) faces a well-financed challenge from former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D) in the 5th Congressional District primary.

Throughout the race, the candidates have been criticized by other Democrats, and have criticized each other, for not taking progressive enough policy positions.

Former CBC Chair Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) chided Lawson for being the only caucus member to applaud the president at the 2018 State of the Union address when he announced black unemployment was down. Brown used the moment in a negative ad, calling Lawson "Trump's favorite Democrat."

Brown was hit for identifying himself as a conservative Democrat in 2015 and declining to take a position in 2012 on an anti-discrimination human rights ordinance that included protections for the LGBT community.

Oklahoma

Educators look to continue Democratic primary success in runoffs

Seven of the eight Democratic primary runoffs for the Oklahoma legislature feature educators. In the June 26 regular Democratic primaries, educators won 19 of 43 contested state House primaries outright and three of seven state Senate primaries outright.

The regular primaries occurred two months after school teachers staged a statewide walkout, calling for higher salaries and education funding. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) signed legislation increasing taxes to pay for additional funding. Strike organizers said it was not enough.

Republicans currently hold a 72-27 advantage in the state House and a 39-8 advantage in the state Senate.

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow and why?

"I look up to people who have been courageous in standing up for what is right even at the risk of losing one’s freedom and life, such as Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King. I also admire Mother Teresa for her selfless service to the poor."

- Jennifer Zimmerman, candidate for Florida’s 1st Congressional District

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Means of Production

"One thing we’ve seen through working with the Democratic Socialists is that socialists are smart, creative, and know how to get a message across the internet without spending $1 million on a 30-second TV ad that no one’s going to watch,” said Naomi Burton.

Burton co-founded Means of Production, the company that produced Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's campaign ad ahead of New York's 14th Congressional District Democratic primary.

Burton and co-founder Nick Hayes met at a Democratic Socialists of America meeting in Detroit in 2016. They decided to leave the corporate communications world to found Means of Production, whose mission is "to bring the skills and resources from those disillusioned with the private-sector, to The Left."

In addition to Ocasio-Cortez's ad, the group has produced ads for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District candidate state Rep. Kaniela Ing and former Rhode Island Secretary of State Matt Brown, who is challenging incumbent Gina Raimondo in the Democratic primary.

The group also reported working with Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, candidate for Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District.

Ocasio-Cortez won New York's 14th District primary against longtime incumbent Joe Crowley June 14. Ing lost the Aug. 11 1st District primary in Hawaii, receiving 6.3 percent of the vote in the seven-candidate field. Pressley's primary is Sept. 4, and Rhode Island's primary between Brown and Raimondo is Sept. 12.

Each of the four candidates raised less money than their opponents. The most notable discrepancies are in New York and Rhode Island. Ocasio-Cortez raised $875,532 to Crowley's $3.9 million. Rhode Island's Matt Brown has raised $320,000 compared to Gov. Raimondo's $7.4 million. Raimondo spent at least $1 million on TV ads through the summer.

What we're reading

• Loyal Democratic donors: We’re done with the DNC ‘until they get their act together’ McClatchy DC Bureau
• Battleground: New York City & State New York
• With one month left in primary season, what is the left winning? Washington Post
• What's Left? by BuzzFeed News Opinion Buzzfeed