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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 33 (September 14, 2018)

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Issue No. 33


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Thanks for joining us as we've covered the Heart of the Primaries this year. We hope you've enjoyed following the stories shaping the future of each party as much as we have covering them. Stay tuned for next week's first Election Updates newsletter, which will carry us through the Nov. 6, 2018 midterms.

Democratic pundits on the news

All primary season, we've looked at where Democratic and progressive pundits disagree on the news of the week. Here are this week’s stories, and three of our favorites from earlier in the cycle.

“In an echo of the Republican Party’s metamorphosis in the early years of Barack Obama’s presidency, when Tea Party activists on the right revolted against Republican elites and reforged the G.O.P. as a party of fire-breathing rural populism, Democratic voters and activists have increasingly succeeded at transforming their party into a more ambitious liberal force.”

“We have a good chance of getting those independents so I think we should concentrate our efforts on that. I don’t think any Democrat is going to vote against a Democratic nominee… Independents need to know they can invest their vote in the Democratic Party.”

June

“Across four states with contested primary elections, Democratic voters embraced the candidates favored — and in some cases handpicked — by party leaders in Washington and the states, spurning insurgents who tried to align themselves with the activist left.”

“The real loser Tuesday night wasn’t Freitas, or even mainstream conservatives. It was those who think American democracy functions best when we have two normal parties — one on the mainstream left, one on the mainstream right.

While Republicans statewide were leaning to the hard right to nominate Stewart, Democrats in western Virginia went as far left as they could go to find candidates for the 6th and 9th congressional districts.”

March

“Newman campaigned as though she viewed left-wing suburban politics as the future — and she counted on voters seeing it that way. In speeches and interviews, she said she was ‘running with the district,’ and referred to polling — not every candidate does that — to prove that her issues were popular.”

“The question, though, is whether this frenzied activity is accomplishing anything aside from sharpening the party’s ideological edge. If progressives are unable to expand the Democratic Party’s grip beyond big cities and other solidly blue districts, they are stuck right back where they started at the beginning of the Trump era—an influential force trapped within in a powerless minority.”

  • Charlie Mahtesian, Politico, March 29, 2018

February

“By focusing exclusively on the Dreamers and offering no practical limits on immigration, much less any border security, the Democrats are in the process of writing their own political obituary for November and beyond.”

  • Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein, The Hill, Feb. 14, 2018

“This means that not only is it morally just for Democrats to position themselves as the party that stands against hatred and bigotry and in favor of inclusiveness and opportunity, but it is also a strategically sound position for winning votes.”

Election results

Cuomo defeats Nixon in NY Democratic gubernatorial primary

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo defeated actress Cynthia Nixon, who cast herself as a progressive alternative to the incumbent. Cuomo ran on his record, including increases in the minimum wage and the legalization of same-sex marriage. Nixon said Cuomo governed as a fiscal conservative and was responsible for issues with the New York City subway system.

Incumbent Kathy Hochul defeated New York City Councilman Jumaane Williams in a separate primary for lieutenant governor. Hochul was aligned with Cuomo and emphasized the administration’s record and experience. Williams campaigned with Nixon and presented himself as more progressive than Hochul.

Cuomo and Hochul will appear on a ticket together in the general election.

James wins Democratic primary for NY Attorney General

New York City Public Advocate Letitia “Tish” James won the Democratic attorney general primary, defeating law professor Zephyr Teachout, U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, and former Hillary Clinton aide Leecia Eve. Gov. Cuomo and the state Democratic Party backed James.

Six former IDC members, including leader Jeff Klein, lose in NY Senate Democratic primaries

Six of the eight Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) members in the New York State Senate, including IDC founder Jeff Klein, were defeated in their primaries by progressive challengers.

The defeats come five months after the IDC agreed to end its alliance with Senate Republicans and rejoin the Senate Democratic caucus. The IDC kept Senate Republicans in control of the chamber even when Democrats won more seats in the 2012 and 2016 elections.

In addition to Klein, state Sens. Tony Avella, Jesse Hamilton, Marisol Alcantara, Jose Peralta, and David Valesky were also defeated. The only former IDC members to win their primaries were state Sens. Diane Savino and David Carlucci.

Pappas defeats 10 candidates for NH-1 Democratic nomination

Executive Councilor Chris Pappas won the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District with 42 percent of the vote. Former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs Maura Sullivan was second with 30 percent.

Eleven candidates ran in the race. The swing district has changed partisan hands five times in the last six elections, and the general election is expected to be competitive. The current incumbent, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), is retiring.

Raimondo wins Democratic nomination in RI gubernatorial primary, McKee beats Regunberg in a close race for Rhode Island LG

Incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo defeated former Secretary of State Matt Brown and state Rep. Spencer Dickinson in Rhode Island's Democratic gubernatorial primary.

In the lieutenant gubernatorial race, Incumbent Lt. Gov. Daniel McKee (D) defeated state Rep. J. Aaron Regunberg (D) in the Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary by fewer than 2500 votes with all but one precinct reporting.

Regunberg challenged McKee from the left, picking up an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) in the campaign’s final week. Regunberg's advocacy for universal health care and firearm regulations illustrated the divide between some progressives and the Democratic Party of Rhode Island.

Primary season roundup

Ballotpedia has been analyzing the 2018 primaries all year long, combining our eye for the most compelling stories with our breadth and scope of coverage. Here's a recap of the top stories and most interesting figures of the year.

Top 10 Democratic Primaries

These 10 Democratic Party primaries were the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Our final list contains primaries for three governor’s races, six U.S. House seats, and one set of state legislative contests.

The DCCC in 2018 primaries

In the 2018 House primaries, candidates backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) faced resistance from party activists who viewed party-backed candidates as insufficiently progressive or independent.

DCCC-backed candidates won 31 of the 33 primaries where the DCCC endorsed a candidate before the primary.

Notable results include:

  • Lizzie Pannill Fletcher’s defeat of Laura Moser in TX-7. The DCCC released negative comments Moser made about her hometown before the March 6 primary but stayed out of the race before the May 22 runoff.
  • Kara Eastman’s win over DCCC-backed former incumbent Brad Ashford in NE-2. The only other DCCC loss was Dana Balter’s defeat of Juanita Perez Williams in NY-24.
  • DCCC-backed Harley Rouda beat out Hans Keirstead for the Democratic slot in CA-48’s top-two primary. The pair nearly split the Democratic vote which would have advanced two Republicans to the general election.

2018 primaries: more candidates, contested primaries, and open seats

In the 2018 primary season, 16,889 candidates ran for 6,754 seats in state and federal races across the country.

  • In 2018, an average of 2.5 candidates filed for each seat up for election. This is up from 2.2 candidates per seat in 2016 and 2.15 candidates per seat in 2014.
  • Twenty percent of seats were open in 2018. This was also up from 17.4 percent in 2016 and 16.4 percent in 2014.
  • More primaries—24.1 percent—were contested in 2018 than the past two election cycles. In 2016, 19.4 percent of primaries were contested. In 2014, 18.2 percent of primaries were contested.
  • Incumbents also faced a greater number of contested primaries: 25.6 percent in 2018 compared to 23.3 percent in 2016 and 22 percent in 2014.

State legislative incumbents facing primary challenges

In 2018, 487 Democratic state legislators seeking re-election—21.1 percent—faced a primary challenger.

  • Of the 487 Democrats to face a primary challenge, 68 were defeated—the highest number for an even-numbered year since 2012. Put another way, 86.0 percent of Democratic legislators facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2016, 39 Democratic legislators were defeated by primary challengers, meaning that 90.4 percent facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2014, 46 Democratic legislators were defeated by primary challengers.

Forty-three states have both detailed 2016 presidential results available and are holding legislative elections for partisan legislatures this year. In those states, 409 Democratic legislators opted to not seek re-election.

  • Legislators in districts which backed Donald Trump (R) in 2016 accounted for 13.7 percent of Democratic seats up in these states but represent 18.1 percent of Democratic retirements.
  • Legislators in districts that overlap with pivot counties—which backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016—make up 9.6 percent of Democratic seats up in these states but account for 10.8 percent of Democratic retirements.

2018's closest primary elections

The 10 closest primaries held between January and June 2018 all had seven or fewer votes separating the winning and losing candidates. The closest primary was for a state legislative seat in Pennsylvania, which was won by one vote. Three races were determined by a margin of two votes, and one race was determined by a margin of three votes. Three of the primaries involved incumbents, and all three incumbents won.

Closest Democratic primaries (2018)
Race Winning votes Losing votes Vote difference
PA State House Dist. 193 1,784 1,783 1
AR State House Dist. 90 1,068 1,066 2
OR State House Dist. 53 3,771 3,769 2
MT State House Dist. 92 414 412 2
San Diego City Council Dist. 8 4,087 4,084 3
WV State House Dist. 16 848 844 4
Clark County (NV) Public Administrator 29,514 29,518 4
OK State House Dist. 12 2,338 2,333 5
TX State House Dist. 107 2,064 2,058 6
ME State House Dist. 110 210 203 7


Special guest analysis: What the 2018 primary upsets tell us

Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share analysis of 2018 primary election upsets. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.

The political upsets in the 2018 midterm election primaries have many themes in common. They include the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win over Joe Crowley in a New York U.S. House race, Jeff Johnson’s defeat of Tim Pawlenty in the Minnesota GOP governor’s race, Andrew Gillum’s victory over Gwen Graham in the Florida Democratic governor’s race, Mike Braun’s upset win in the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate race, Ron DeSantis’ come-from-behind victory over early favorite Adam Putnam in the GOP Florida gubernatorial primary, Ben Jealous’ surprise win in the Maryland Democratic governor’s race, Kevin Stitt’s win the race to be chief executive in an Oklahoma run-off, and Keith Ellison’s last-minute win in the Minnesota DFL attorney general primary.

In recent weeks, Massachusetts provided one more big upset when Ayanna Pressley upset 10-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in the state’s 7th Congressional District. Like the Ocasio-Cortez upset in New York, the Democratic incumbent was a bona fide progressive liberal, but the district’s voters obviously wanted a new face who was even further left. Once again, as in the New York race and the Minnesota and Florida gubernatorial contests, the polls did not detect the voters’ late-breaking trend.

What these wins, unexpected at the outset of the primary season, have in common is their ties to the new leaders in their respective parties.

The Republican upsets can be attributed in notable part to the role of President Donald Trump, either by endorsement or the assertion of support of the new Republican president. The Democratic upsets can be attributed notably to the winner’s support by or of 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders, his allies, and his policies. These two themes are likely to continue in the autumn campaigns of these winners against their opponents.

Another take-away from these upsets in both parties was that the public polling in these races failed to measure last-minute voter decision making—something which could carry over to the late polling of voter sentiment in November.

While Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Pressley (Mass.) and Stitt (Okla.) are now certain or very likely to be elected, and Jealous (Md.) faces a steep uphill contest against a popular GOP governor, Johnson (Minn.), Gillum (Fla.), DeSantis (Fla.), Braun (Ind.) and Ellison (Minn.) are looking at likely competitive races. Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders will, a least in these races, be testing their relative strength in advance of 2020.

Power Players

Each week, we've highlighted one power player influencing the future of the Democratic Party. Here's who we covered…

Looking ahead: measuring a wave

With the primaries over, election forecasters are looking ahead to November. Some predict a Democratic wave that will end Republican control of the House and possibly the Senate.

Ballotpedia looked at historical election data and defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years where the president’s party lost the most seats.

For 2018 to be counted alongside wave elections like 2010, 1994, and 1932, Democrats need to win:

  • 48 U.S. House seats
  • Seven U.S. Senate seats
  • Seven governorships
  • 494 state legislative seats

Read our full report on wave elections here.

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