Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Special Edition 1 (March 7, 2018)

Issue No. Special Edition 1

Texas voters kicked off primary season. One state down, 49 to go (although, with a runoff ahead of us, Texas isn’t exactly done yet!). In any district where a candidate did not receive 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will take place between the top two vote getters on May 22. Here’s a quick rundown on the exciting primary events last night.

Congress

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and Laura Moser advance to runoff in CD-07

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) and Laura Moser (D) finished first and second in the Democratic primary in Texas’ 7th congressional district, with 29 percent and 24 percent of the vote. The winner will challenge Rep. John Culberson in the district that hasn't elected a Democrat to the House since 1964. Hillary Clinton (D) carried the district by 1 percent in 2016.

The primary received national attention after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released opposition research it had compiled against Moser, arguing that statements she had made about living in Texas would prevent her from winning a general election. Prior to the opposition research release, the bulk of media attention had focused on Fletcher and nonprofit executive Alex Triantaphyllis (D), who placed fourth.

The runoff is already being framed by some observers as a battle between party insiders and outsiders. Politico wrote that Moser is "laying the groundwork for an outsider, Bernie Sanders-style campaign," while reporting on a DCCC memo arguing that voters had picked "a clear frontrunner."

Veronica Escobar wins CD-16 primary outright

El Paso County judge Veronica Escobar (D) won the Democratic primary in Texas’ 16th Congressional District with 61 percent of the vote, allowing her to advance directly to the general election on November 6. She will face Republican primary winner Rick Seeberger.

Escobar hopes to replace Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), who is running for U.S. Senate. O’Rourke endorsed her the day she announced her candidacy. Escobar was also backed in the primary by NARAL Pro-Choice America, Giffords PAC, and the Bernie Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution.

State senator defeats healthcare CEO

State Sen. Sylvia Garcia is moving on to the general election in Texas’ 29th Congressional District election after defeating six candidates in the primary, including healthcare CEO Tahir Javed. Javed loaned himself $800,000 in the weeks leading up to the election and received an endorsement from Sen. Chuck Schumer, who also hosted a fundraiser for him.

Garcia was backed in the primary by EMILY’s List, the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund, and the Houston Chronicle. She also defeated teacher Hector Morales, who had the backing of Our Revolution and Justice Democrats.

Media outlets are framing the victories of Garcia and Escobar as what could result in the state sending its first Latina to Congress. The Texas Tribune said of the two primary winners, “The state of Texas is all but certain to break a major glass ceiling and send at least one, and likely two, Hispanic women to Congress next year.”

Endorsement roundup

Ballotpedia tracked endorsements by key influencers five congressional Democratic primaries. Here's how some of their endorsed candidates performed in those five races:

• EMILY's List: four out of four candidates won outright or advanced to a runoff.
• Our Revolution: two out of four candidates won outright or advanced to a runoff.
• NARAL Pro-Choice America: both candidates won outright or advanced to a runoff.

State legislature

Four Democratic incumbents go down to primary challengers

Four Democratic state representatives lost to primary challengers last night. Robert Alonzo (District 104), Diana Arévalo (District 116), and Tomas Uresti (District 118) lost in head-to-head matchups, while Dawnna Dukes (District 46) garnered just 10 percent of the vote and missed a runoff.

Each primary loss has its own story:

• Alonzo was a longtime incumbent who faced criticism from a progressive challenger for his positions on fracking and urban development.
• Arévalo was defeated by Trey Martinez Fischer, who held the seat before her. They clashed on both legislative style and gender politics.
• Uresti was not thought to be in trouble until his brother, state Sen. Carlos Uresti (D), was convicted on felony charges last week.
• Dukes was charged with corruption and announced her retirement. The charges were later dropped, and she decided to get back into the race.

Only two incumbents lost in Texas state House Democratic primaries in the 2016, 2014, and 2012 election cycles. No incumbent Democratic state senators have lost since at least 2012.

What’s ahead

Illinois will hold its primaries on March 20. We’re highlighting three of the top races to watch next Tuesday night.

The heart of the battle: Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District

Longtime incumbent Rep. and Blue Dog Coalition member Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.) faces political newcomer Marie Newman (D) in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District for a seat held by Democrats since 1975.

This race, called a "a battle for the soul of the Democratic party” by Kate Sweeny of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, is ground zero for the fight between moderate and progressive Democrats.

While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) and state party chairman Michael Madigan (D) back Lipinksi, Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), both representing nearby districts, endorsed Newman. An endorsement from Service Employees International Union also split union support in the race; prior to that, some of Lipinski's strongest supporters had been labor unions such as the Illinois AFL-CIO.

A poll released this week had the two candidates in a virtual tie, with Lipinski receiving 43 percent support and Newman 41 percent.

Test case for how to flip a seat: Illinois’ 14th Congressional District

With the exception of Rep. Bill Foster (D), who represented the district between 2008 and 2011, no Democratic candidate has won election to represent Illinois’ 14th Congressional District since 1936. However, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hoping they might have a shot at flipping this likely Republican seat.

The top contenders: Montgomery Village President Matt Brolley (D) and former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services senior advisor Lauren Underwood (D).

When The Chicago Sun-Times endorsed Brolley in February, the editorial board wrote, "He takes a conventional Democratic Party stand on most issues ... Anybody hoping to [win] ... will have to appeal to centrist voters."

Underwood has the support of organizations like EMILY’s List, Off the Sidelines PAC, and The Collective PAC, and outraised Brolley in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Populism in the Midwest: Illinois’ governor’s race

Six candidates are competing for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination: state Sen. Daniel Biss (D), Madison County Superintendent of Schools Bob Daiber (D), activist Tio Hardiman (D), businessman Chris Kennedy (D), physician Robert Marshall (D), and businessman J.B. Pritzker (D).

This race is one of seven primaries that could shape the future of the Democratic Party, according to Tim Murphy of Mother Jones. "The populist left [as exemplified by Biss] is supposed to be ascendant right now, particularly in the Midwest; Illinois may test its limits,” Murphy said.

Notable endorsements
Endorsement	Date	Pritzker	Kennedy	Biss
Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D)	December 8, 2017	‎✔
Sen. Dick Durbin (D)	December 8, 2017	‎✔
Rep. Danny K. Davis (D)	November 21, 2017		‎✔
Rep. Mike Quigley (D)	October 30, 2017	‎✔
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)	October 9, 2017	‎✔
Rep. Robin Kelly (D)	August 17, 2017			‎✔
Rep. Bobby Rush (D)	June 19, 2017		‎✔
Our Revolution	February 22, 2018			‎✔
MoveOn.org	January 25, 2018			‎✔
Illinois AFL-CIO	June 6, 2017	‎✔