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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Special Edition 6 (June 6, 2018)
In this special post-primary edition: Results still developing in California, Cindy Axne defeats Sanders-backed candidate in Iowa's 3rd, and former New Mexico Democratic Party chairwoman wins in New Mexico's 1st.
Plus, guest analysis from Patrick Ruffini on turnout in California's U.S. House races.
Here are the results of the June 5 primaries so far…
California
Democrats appear to have avoided general election lockouts in all targeted races for GOP-held House seats. Republicans were locked out of the U.S. Senate race but, managed to snag the second spot in the gubernatorial race.
With many mail-in ballots outstanding, here's an early look at where the results stand.
Newsom and Cox advance in gubernatorial race
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and businessman John Cox (R) were the top two finishers in the gubernatorial primary and will face off in the November general election. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Newsom had 33.3 percent of the vote to Cox’s 26.6 percent.
Likely Republican shutout in California Senate race
Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) easily finished first in the U.S. Senate primary with state Senate President Kevin de León (D) appeared poised to take the second spot.
The odds of a Feinstein-de León showdown increased when no high-profile Republican entered the primary.
De León had endorsements from the Service Employees International Union of California, California Nurses Association, and California Labor Federation AFL-CIO, but struggled to match Feinstein’s $10.3 million warchest.
Feinstein has endorsements from national and state party figures, including former President Barack Obama (D) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D).
Democrats avoid shutout in 48th District
Democrats feared this primary posed the greatest risk of a shutout. They appear to have avoided it. As of Wednesday morning, businessman Harley Rouda (D) and scientist Hans Keirstead (D) were separated by 73 votes in the race for second, ahead of the potential GOP spoiler, former Rorabacher stafer Scott Baugh.
Rouda was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which added him to its Red-to-Blue list in May. Keirstead was backed by Democratic Party of California, which endorsed him at its February convention.
Harkey advances in CA-49, Democratic candidate takes second
In California’s 49th Congressional District, state Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R) took first with 25.5 percent of the vote and will advance to the general election.
As of Wednesday morning, attorney Mike Levin (D) and former foreign policy adviser Sara Jacobs (D) were separated by just under 2,000 votes in the race for second place.
The Sierra Club and the Howard Dean-affiliated group Democracy for America backed Levin. Jacobs was backed by EMILY’s List, whose Women Vote! super PAC spent $2.2 million in support of her campaign.
Close call for second place in CA-10
Incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) advanced to the November election after facing six primary challengers
Venture capitalist Josh Harder (D) and veterinarian Ted Howze (R) were separated by less than 900 votes for second place, as of Wednesday morning.
Denham is one of seven California Republicans who represent districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Caforio may miss shot at rematch against Knight in CA-25
The only Republican in the primary for California’s 25th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (R), sailed through to the general election.
The race for second place between nonprofit executive Katie Hill (D) and attorney Bryan Caforio (D) has not been called, with 1,500 votes separating them as of Wednesday morning. Knight defeated Caforio by 6 percentage points in the 2016 general election.
Caforio had been backed Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Democracy for America, and Justice Democrats, while Hill was endorsed by several members of Congress—Reps. Nanette Barragan (D), Judy Chu (D), Lois Frankel (D), Jimmy Gomez (D), and Jackie Speier (D)—and EMILY's List and NARAL Pro-Choice America.
Democrats face potential shutout in CA-39
As of Wednesday morning, Democrats faced a potential shutout in the seat of retiring incumbent Rep. Ed Royce (R). Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), whom Royce endorsed, finished first.
As of Wednesday morning, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-backed Gil Cisneros (D) appears to have advanced to the general election, but leads accountant Phil Liberatore (R) by less than 5,000 votes, leaving the possibility open that Liberatore could overtake Cisneros once mail-in ballots are counted.
The DCCC and House Majority PAC spent more than $2 million on Cisneros’s behalf, some of which was spent against Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson (R) and former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff (R). Outside Democratic groups had also spent money boosting Liberatore’s candidacy.
Incumbent Hunter will likely face Democrat Campa-Najjar in CA-50
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) advanced to the general election and will likely face either small-business owner Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) or El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R).
Campa-Najjar led all candidates in fundraising, including Hunter, and had support from the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America.
Incumbent Walters (R) likely to face Porter (D) in CA-45
Rep. Mimi Walters (R) and consumer protection attorney Katie Porter (D) appear to have advanced to the November election. Walters’ expected to reach the general as she was the only Republican running. Porter appears to have defeated law professor Dave Min (D) for the second ballot spot, though that remains unofficial.
Mendoza locked out of state Senate general election, while Garcia advances
Results were mixed for California state legislators accused of sexual misconduct.
Former state Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) does not appear to have advanced to the general election in his bid to reclaim his old seat. He resigned from the legislature earlier this year over sexual harassment charges but said he was unfairly pushed out.
Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia (D) appears to have finished first in her primary despite opposition from the State Building and Construction Trades Council. Garcia was a national leader in the #MeToo movement before being accused of harassment herself by former staffers. She will face Republican Mike Simpfenderfer in the November in a district that is likely to remain Democratic.
Newman’s recall could indicate Republican energy for gas tax repeal
California state Sen. Josh Newman (D) was recalled from his Orange County-based seat due to his support for increasing the state’s gas tax in April 2017. If GOP turnout rises in November to oppose the gas tax, it could boost Orange County Republicans like U.S. Reps. Mimi Walters (District 45) and Dana Rohrabacher (District 48) and state Assemblywoman Young Kim (running for District 39).
Newman will be replaced in the state Senate by former Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang (R). He was the first California state legislator to be successfully recalled since 1995.
Special guest analysis: Ruffini on CA turnout
Patrick Ruffini is a Partner at Echelon Insights. He tweeted Wednesday morning that the DCCC should be concerned as GOP vote percentage neared or exceeded 50 percent in the 10th, 21st, 25th, 29th, 45th, 48th, and 49th congressional districts. We invited him to expand on his analysis.
With the exception of CA-49, it's difficult argue from last night's results that any California seats are any worse than a toss-up for Republicans, and David Valadao in particular looks to be in a fairly comfortable position. We have long known that these will be exceptionally close races and numbers can shift between now and when the final tallies come in and between now and November — in either direction. We will know next week if these numbers hold, but historically, the partisan breakdown of primary elections hasn't changed much in these districts when all the votes were counted.
On the question of a June to November shift, there's no empirical evidence from 2014 and 2016 of a systematic shift to Democrats in California between the June and November elections (the net shift statewide between these two elections was 0 - 1.2 points to the Democrats in 2014, 1.2 points to Republicans in 2016). The only election showing a marked Democratic shift occurred in 2012, when Barack Obama ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Another factor to consider is that Democratic turnout was up substantially from 2014 and Republican turnout was flat, yet Democrats couldn't clear 50% in all but one of the seats. In most seats, Democrats had more competitive races and a larger field of candidates to choose from. All things being equal, that should elevate Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout.
Most of the ratings services count these districts as among the most vulnerable for Republicans and forecasts have these seats at a 70 or 80 percent probability of flipping. Data from last night suggest they're no worse than 50-50 races even allowing for 2-3 points of slippage in Republican vote share between now and November.
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Iowa
Hubbell (D) wins in six-way gubernatorial primary
Businessman Fred Hubbell (D) took more than half of the votes in a field of six candidates for the Democratic nomination in Iowa’s gubernatorial race. Runner-up Cathy Glasson (D) defined herself as the bold progressive in the contest and attempted to paint Hubbell, a self described “lifelong progressive,” as the moderate choice.
Hubbell will face incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) in the general election.
Finkenauer (D) will face incumbent Blum (R) in IA-1
State Rep. Abby Finkenauer defeated three rivals in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary and will face incumbent Rod Blum (R) in November. Finkenauer raised over $1 million ahead of the primary and was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and labor unions in the district. Election forecasters rate the 1st District as a “Toss-up.”
Axne defeats D’Alessandro in IA-03
Small-business owner Cindy Axne (D) defeated political organizer Pete D'Alessandro (D) and teacher Eddie Mauro (D) in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. Axne had support from former state legislators and councilmen, while D'Alessandro was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and progressive organizations Justice Democrats and Our Revolution.
Axne will face incumbent Rep. David Young (R) in the general election.
New Jersey
Sherrill defeats Harris in NJ-11
Former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill (D) defeated four Democrats, including family advocate Tamara Harris (D), in the primary for the New Jersey U.S. House seat held by retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R). With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Sherrill had received 77.3 percent of the vote to Harris’ 14.5 percent.
Sherrill, who was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and former Vice President Joe Biden (D), cast her campaign as a challenge to President Trump (R), emphasizing commonalities between policies supported by Trump and Frelinghuysen. Harris, who was supported by the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and the Social Workers PAC, emphasized her background in the private sector and social work.
New Mexico
Haaland wins nomination in NM-01
Former New Mexico Democratic Party Chairwoman Debra Haaland (D) defeated law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, veteran and former U.S. attorney Damon Martinez (D), and three other Democrats for a shot at the safe Democratic seat in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District.
The Congressional Black Caucus endorsed Haaland in January, making her one of the few non-African American candidates the Caucus has endorsed.
This seat became open when incumbent Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) announced she was running in New Mexico's 2018 gubernatorial election and is rated safe or solid Democrat.
June 12 preview
Up next: June 12 statewide primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia. Top stories to watch include...
- Six Democrats are vying to challenge Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) in Virginia's 10th Congressional District. In 2016, voters re-elected Comstock but backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points.
- Three candidates have discussed coordinated efforts to defeat Maine gubernatorial frontrunner Janet Mills (D). The candidates face the challenge of navigating the state's first primary election to use ranked-choice voting.
