Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Special Edition 7 (June 13, 2018)

Issue No. Special Edition 7

In this special post-primary edition: results unclear in Maine's gubernatorial primary, Wexton will face Republican Comstock in Virginia's 10th, and Harry Reid's pick beats Hillary Clinton's pick for Nevada governor.

Here are the results of the June 12 primaries so far, plus a look at still developing California results.

Maine

Context for Maine results: statewide ranked-choice voting, voters approve Question 1 to preserve the system

Maine's primaries were the first statewide use of ranked-choice voting in U.S. history. Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank their choices in order of preference from among the available candidates. Votes are tabulated in rounds. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote after the first round, the lowest ranked candidate is eliminated. Voters whose candidate is eliminated have their ballots re-allocated, with their next ranked choice getting their votes in the following round. The process continues until one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote.

Voters approved Question 1, a veto referendum that effectively preserves ranked-choice voting for Congressional races and state primaries.

Gubernatorial primary result unclear

The results of Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial primary remain unclear Wednesday morning as the state prepares its first ranked-choice vote tabulation.

With 74 percent of precincts reporting, none of the seven candidates had received a majority of the vote, meaning that the secretary of state’s office will need to count voters’ ranked choices -- which it estimates could take more than one week.

Attorney General Janet Mills (D) had 32.5 percent first-choice votes. Businessman Adam Cote (D) had 28.4 percent of the first-choice vote.

Under ranked-choice voting it is possible that neither Mills nor Cote will end up winning the final tally. Activist Betsy Sweet (D) and former House Speaker Mark Eves (D) launched a cross-promotion campaign just before Election Day, urging voters who selected one of them as their first choice to mark the other as their second choice. It’s possible either candidate could eventually win on the final ballot.

State Senate primaries set up fight for chamber control in November

Five competitive Democratic primaries picked nominees for potentially vulnerable Republican-held state Senate seats in November. Democrats are looking to break the chamber’s 18-17 Republican majority. If they flip the Senate, hold the state House, and win the governor’s race, Maine will become a Democratic trifecta.

• State Rep. Louie Luchini leads Ian Schwartz in District 7. This is an open seat that went for Hillary Clinton by 12.3 percentage points.
• House Majority Leader Erin Herbig defeated Joe Greenier in District 11. This is a open seat that went for Clinton by less than 1 percentage point.
• John Glowa has a narrow lead over Kellie Julia in District 15. This is an open seat that went for Donald Trump by 5 percentage points but voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
• Karen Kusiak leads Steven Russell in District 16. Currently held by Sen. Scott Cryway (R), the District voted for Trump by less than 1 percentage point and went for Obama in 2012.
• Jan Collins leads Gary McGrane in District 17. This is an open seat that voted for Trump by about 5 percentage points and went for Obama in 2012.

Nevada

Reid’s pick defeats Clinton’s in Nevada gubernatorial race

Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D) defeated fellow Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D) in Nevada’s Democratic gubernatorial primary 50 - 39 percent.

Giunchigliani received a late endorsement from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D), but it was not enough to overcome Sisolak's momentum and support from former Senate Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and other state party officials.

Sisolak faces state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) in the general election. Nevada is one of eight states with gubernatorial elections this year where Clinton won in 2016 and a Republican held the governorship.

Primaries set up November matchups in Nevada State Senate

Democratic primaries picked nominees in four Nevada State Senate races that could help Democrats expand their 10-8 majority and push back against Republican advances. One independent caucuses with Democrats and two seats (one Democratic-held and one Republican-held) are vacant.

• Marilyn Dondero Loop won the District 8 primary. The seat is current incumbent is independent Patricia Farley. The District narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
• Melanie Scheible won the primary for the open District 9 seat previously held by Becky Harris (R). Clinton carried the District by nearly 9 percentage points in 2016.
• Julie Pazini won the primary for the District 20 seat being vacated by Michael Roberson (R). Trump carried the District by less than 2 percentage points.
• James Ohrenschall won the primary to replace Mark Manedo (D) in District 21. Manedo resigned in July 2017 after it was determined he violated the legislature’s anti-harassment policy. Both Clinton and Barack Obama won the District by more than 20 percentage points.

Virginia

Wexton wins VA-10 Democratic primary

State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) defeated former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), former Obama administration official Lindsey Davis Stover (D), and two other Democrats in the 10th Congressional District primary. With 99.5 percent of precincts reporting, Wexton had 42 percent of the vote to Friedman’s 23 percent.

Friedman had led the pack in fundraising with $2.4 million, including a $1 million boost from the candidate herself. Wexton had rounded up endorsements from high-profile state figures like Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and Rep. Gerald Connolly (D), while other candidates used advertising to try to break through the pack.

Wexton faces incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) in the general election for this toss-up seat that backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points in 2016.

California

Rohrabacher’s Democratic opponent remains undetermined

When we last checked in with California’s 48th Congressional District in our June 6 post-primary newsletter, it was clear that Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) had advanced to the second round of voting and that former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh (R) would not advance, eliminating the possibility of a Democratic shutout.

Seventy-three votes separated the leading Democratic candidates -- Democratic Party of California-backed Hans Keirstead (D) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-supported Harley Rouda (D).

As of Wednesday morning, the outcome of the race had yet to be determined. Keirstead leads Rouda by 87 votes.

Wisconsin

Democrat Caleb Frostman defeated Republican State Assemblyman André Jacque 51 - 49 percent to win a special election in Wisconsin State Senate District 1.

It’s the second state Senate District to change from Republican to Democratic control in Wisconsin special elections this year. Governor Scott Walker (R) received 61 percent of the vote in the District in 2014.

The result changes the partisan composition of the Wisconsin Senate to 18 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Republicans had a seven-seat majority after the 2016 elections.

June 26 preview

Up next: June 19 primary runoffs is Arkansas, and June 26 statewide primaries in Colorado, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Utah. Top stories to watch include…

• In Colorado's 6th Congressional District, Jason Crow received early support from the DCCC. But opponent Levi Tillemann has criticized the group's involvement there. The Democratic primary winner faces incumbent Mike Coffman (R) in a District Hillary Clinton won by nine points.
• Eight candidates are running to challenge incumbent Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R), including former NAACP President Ben Jealous, Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, and former Montgomery County Councillor Valerie Ervin.
• Four Democrats hope to replace term-limited Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper (D).