Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 10 (March 19, 2018)
This week: Big moves in Mississippi and Nevada, Obamacare notched a win in Arkansas, plus a preview of Tuesday’s Illinois primaries. Looking for more primary coverage? Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: March 20 (Colorado, Pennsylvania), March 21 (Washington, D.C.)
Passed filing deadlines: 22
Upcoming elections: March 20 (Illinois)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,249 Democrats, 966 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Even though the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District remains too close to call, the results are simply the latest in a series of special elections in which the Republicans have run well behind the 2016 presidential election results. If the decline this fall is comparable to the drop in Pennsylvania, there will be a Democratic landslide.” - Newt Gingrich, FOX News, March 15, 2018
“Even though Lamb looks to have won a district that president Trump carried by 20 points in 2016, an ominous sign, there was some reason for GOP hope in the result. By yesterday, even after a last ditch rally in the district by the president, most pundits thought Saccone was headed for an embarrassing, multi-point loss. He was not considered a very good candidate and was up against a kind of Democratic golden boy.” - David Marcus, The Federalist, March 14, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
Democratic seats heading into November: 193
Republican seats heading into November: 238
Open seats: 51
Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
Republican seats heading into November: 51
Open seats: 3
Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Tarkanian drops Nevada Senate bid, runs for 3rd District instead
Big news out of Nevada, where businessman Danny Tarkanian’s (pictured left) withdrew from the Senate race, clearing the general election path for vulnerable incumbent senator, Dean Heller (R).
Tarkanian dropped his Senate bid at President Donald Trump’s (R) request.
In a statement, Tarkanian said while he was “confident” he would have won, “the president is adamant that a unified Republican ticket in Nevada is the best direction for the America First movement.”
Tarkanian will instead run for the open seat in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. Tarkanian narrowly lost a race for that seat to Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) in 2016.
Rosen is one of three candidates seeking the Democratic Senate nomination in the party’s June 12 primary.
Former House Freedom Caucus chair endorses Hagan in OH-16
Former House Freedom Caucus chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) endorsed state Rep. Christina Hagan’s (R) bid for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.
Pro-Trump figures Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka have also endorsed Hagan, who faces former Ohio State football player Anthony Gonzalez in the primary.
Gonzales has endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and prominent Republican donors in the area.
Hagan said Gonzalez is "walking on eggshells" about his support for the president.
Gonzalez deflected the change, saying he is focused on “the things I believe are most important to the district.”
Gonzales raised $900,000 to Hagan’s $300,000 in 2017.
McDaniel switches from Senate race against Wicker to special election in Mississippi
Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel switched from running in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi against incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker (R) to the special election to fill Sen. Thad Cochran's (R) seat.
“By announcing early,” McDaniel said, “we are asking Mississippi Republicans to unite around my candidacy and avoid another contentious contest among GOP members that would only improve the Democrats' chances of winning the open seat"
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is concerned McDaniel’s bid could lead to an Alabama Senate-type seat flip.
McDaniel said McConnell “wants to hand-pick our next senator,” and opposes his campaign because he will not answer to Senate leaders.
Gov. Phil Bryant (R), who will appoint an interim senator, said McDaniel’s statement was “the silliest thing I've ever heard of.”
“The decision will be mine and mine alone,” Bryant said, “with no one from the outside, no one from the swamp or the outside world or Mars or Jupiter is going to come here and try to tell me [what to do].”
Candidate survey reply of the week
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What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
"My family grew up in the small town bakery business, getting up at 2:00 am before school, 7 days a week. We were taught to work hard."
- John Elleson, candidate for Illinois' 9th Congressional District
Read all of John Elleson's responses →
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Democratic Governors Association launches ads ahead of Illinois Republican primary
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) announced Friday it would launch ads targeting both Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) and former state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) ahead of the March 20 primary.
The DGA’s Rauner ad says he "racked up billions in unpaid bills, leaving Illinois taxpayers on the hook." The Ives ad cites her stances on abortion, firearms regulations, and immigration, and says Ives’ "conservative policies are just too conservative for Illinois.”
Politico compared the Ives ad to ads Sen. Claire McCaskill ran during Missouri’s 2012 GOP Senate primary targeting then-Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.). McCaskill viewed Akin as her weakest potential opponent in the general election, and the ads painted Akin as "too conservative" for the state.
The Illinois primary is open to all registered voters.
Illinois Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 7/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 22/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 51/118
Newt Gingrich endorses Cox in California gubernatorial race
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) made his first endorsement of the 2018 gubernatorial cycle, endorsing businessman John Cox (R) in California’s June 5 primary.
Gingrich said Cox, one of 13 Republicans in the race, is "the person we need to rescue California from decades of radical, left-wing policies."
The June 5 top-two primary is open to all registered voters. All candidates will appear on the ballot regardless of partisan affiliation, with the top two candidates advancing to the Nov. 6 general election.
California Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 14/53
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 13/40
- Seats held in state Assembly: 25/80
Poll: Georgia gubernatorial primary
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland*, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 41.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 83.1 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 61.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 45.6 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Previewing Tuesday’s Illinois GOP primaries
Tuesday’s Republican legislative primaries will be the most closely watched in recent years, with retirements and a fight over a tax hike driving 27 competitive races.
Thirteen state House incumbents declined to run again. Nine of them voted to override Gov. Bruce Rauner’s (R) veto of a tax increase in July.
Five of the seven state House seeking incumbents seeking re-election who voted for the override face primary challengers.
Conservative radio host Dan Proft, a former Rauner ally who is backing former state Rep. Jeanne Ives in gubernatorial primary, is also playing a role in the legislative races.
Proft endorsed or cut campaign ads for candidates in five of the open Republican seats, and for two primary challengers.
Race to watch: Burr Ridge Mayor Mickey Straub’s challenge of House Minority Leader Jim Durkin got a $1 million boost from independent spending.
Proft is running ads on Straub’s behalf linking Durkin to House Speaker Mike Madigan (D). Durkin’s own ads have done the same thing, referring to Straub as “Madigan Mickey.”
Pro-Medicaid Republican advances in Arkansas special election
Medicaid advocates are celebrating lobbyist Breanne Davis’s victory over gunmaker Bobby Bailey in Tuesday’s runoff for the GOP nomination in Senate District 16.
Davis supports the state’s expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, known as Arkansas Works. Bailey opposed it.
Business groups and Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) (pictured left), who support Arkansas Works, endorsed Davis. The conservative group Conduit for Action, which opposes both Hutchinson and Arkansas Works, backed Bailey.
Because budget appropriations require a three-fourths vote of both legislative chambers, supporters of Arkansas Works need to control 27 of the Senate’s 35 seats and 75 of the House’s 100 seats. The Senate voted 27-2 to approve an appropriations bill funding the program March 6. The House voted 77-13 in favor of the bill.
Davis, Bailey and Luke Heffley originally faced off in the Feb. 13 primary. Davis and Bailey each received about 40 percent of the vote and advanced to the runoff.
Davis will face Democrat Teresa Gallegos in the special election May 22.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Dan Proft
"I was a supporter of Bruce Rauner's, I'm a friend of Bruce Rauner's, I like Bruce. But here's the thing. If you're going to betray the Republican Party, if you're going to lie to people, if you're going to advance the flag of the left, then I don't need your money and neither does the Republican Party." -Dan Proft, Ives supporter and former Rauner ally
Conservative radio host Dan Proft, a former ally of Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), split with the governor over his decision to sign a 2017 bill preserving legal access and insurance coverage for abortion in the state.
That decision was also the catalyst for Rauner challenger Jeanne Ives' entry into the gubernatorial race. Proft [1] Ives at a February fundraiser, and his Liberty Principles PAC has endorsed her in the primary.
Liberty Principles is also backing state legislative candidates in Tuesday’s primaries. One of the group’s top targets is House Minority Leader—and Rauner ally—Jim Durkin. A Liberty Principles ad aired on behalf of Durkin challenger Mickey Straub charges Durkin with working too closely with Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan.
"We thought we knew Durkin," the ad says. "Turns out Madigan knows him better."
What we’re reading
“Pennsylvania election: Sound and fury, signifying … almost nothing” (The Globe and Mail) “Orange Crush: Inside the GOP Struggle to Hold the Southern California Suburbs” (Politico) “GOP Faces Reckoning on Power of Trump Coalition” (Real Clear Politics) “Pennsylvania special election: It's the strategy, Republicans. So what's the 2018 plan?” (FOX News)
