Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 11 (March 26, 2018)
This week: Mississippi gets a new Senator, Ohio’s gubernatorial race gets rough, and we put Kansas in the spotlight. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: March 27 (Missouri, South Dakota), March 29 (Virginia), March 30 (South Carolina)
Passed filing deadlines: 26
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,242 Democrats, 970 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“In sum: Democrats are very enthusiastic to vote, but their left-wing candidates are not doing very well, while Republicans are still engaged.
That could mean trouble for Democrats in some places, such as Orange County, California, where Democrats are hoping to pick up U.S. House seats in Republican districts, but where the primaries might yield far-left challengers that cannot win in a general election.”
- Joel Pollak, Breitbart, March 22, 2018
“In recent elections, rank and file Republicans have failed to turn out and, in some cases, moved towards the Democratic party. In generic ballot polls (one of the best predictors we have of the eventual midterm result), Democrats lead Republicans by a solid margin. And Republican members of Congress have been retiring at a breakneck pace.”
- David Byler, The Weekly Standard, March 14, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 51
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
U.S. Congress
Gorka endorses McCann in NJ-05
Sebastian Gorka, a former deputy assistant to President Donald Trump, endorsed attorney John McCann (left) in New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District Republican primary.
““We need fighters like John in Congress to go to work with President Trump and vote on behalf of the American people,” Gorka said.
McCann’s primary rival Steve Lonegan (R), a longtime New Jersey politician who worked for Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign, was involved in an effort to deny Trump the GOP nomination at the party’s national convention in 2016. Lonegan now says that he supports Trump and his agenda.
Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) endorsed Lonegan, who has outraised McCann, $1.2 million to $140,000.
Cotton and Schaefer endorse in Texas primary runoffs
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) endorsed former Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw (R) in his runoff election with state Rep. Kevin Roberts (R) for the GOP nomination in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District.
“The number of veterans in Congress is at historic lows,” Cotton said. “That’s why I’m proud to endorse a decorated Navy SEAL.”
In the regular primary, Roberts received 33 percent of the vote to Crenshaw’s 27.4 percent.
In Texas’ 5th Congressional District, state Rep. Matt Schaefer (R), chairman of the Texas Freedom Caucus, endorsed political consultant Bunni Pounds in her runoff against state Rep. Lance Gooden (R).
Pounds also received endorsements from four of the 5th District candidates who did not advance, including Ted Cruz-endorsed Jason Wright. Pounds also got the support of the Club for Growth, which spent $250,000 on ads opposing Gooden.
Bryant appoints Hyde-Smith to U.S. Senate
Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant (R) appointed Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) (right) to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacancy created by Sen. Thad Cochran (R)'s upcoming resignation. Hyde-Smith will be the first woman to represent Mississippi in Congress.
Hyde-Smith will run in the Nov. 6 special election to fill the remainder of Cochran's term. The White House reportedly opposes her appointment, concerned her 2010 party switch from Democrat to Republican could be a liability.
State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) dropped his primary challenge of Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), choosing instead to run in the special election.
According to Politico, National Republican Senatorial Committee polling showed Hyde-Smith trailing McDaniel and a generic Democratic candidate.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
"My very first job was a stocker/sales person in a department store at 14 years of age-making $.35 per hour! That was my job through high school!"
- Charles Lingerfelt, candidate for Texas' 5th Congressional District
Read all of Charles Lingerfelt's responses →
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Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Ad wars: DeWine and Taylor butt heads for Ohio nomination
The war of words in the Republican gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R) and Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) grew more intense, with the campaigns exchanging broadsides in new ads and on social media.
Pro-Taylor super PAC Onward Ohio launched an ad campaign Tuesday saying that DeWine adopted liberal positions on immigration, firearms regulations, and trade. The DeWine campaign responded with an announcement of an ad campaign and website criticizing Taylor's performance as both lieutenant governor and state auditor.
On Twitter, the Taylor campaign referred to DeWine as “DC DeWine,” a reference to his years in elected office. DeWine’s campaign posted a 2011 article alleging Taylor had improperly used a state airplane for personal travel with the hashtag #LockHerUp.
The May 8 primary is open to all registered voters.
Ohio Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 11/16
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 24/33
- Seats held in state House: 66/99
Kobach and Hartman form Kansas ticket
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) announced Wednesday he had selected one-time opponent Wink Hartman (R) as his running mate in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Hartman endorsed Kobach when he withdrew from the race in February.
Hartman raised $1.8 million, more than twice as much as any of the other Republican candidates. Kobach raised $350,000.
Nine candidates are seeking the GOP nomination. The filing deadline is June 1. The Aug. 7 primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Kansas Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 10/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/4
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 31/40
- Seats held in state House: 85/125
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland*, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 30.0 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 81.6 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 38.0 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 35.2 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Primaries could decide direction of post-Brownback Kansas Legislature
Gov. Sam Brownback (pictured left) may have left Topeka behind to take a job in the Trump administration. But his departure didn’t end Republican infighting over one of his signature legislative accomplishments, a 2012 tax cut.
Anti-Brownback House moderates, who teamed with House Democrats to roll back portions of those cuts in 2017, and pro-Brownback conservatives who fought to keep the cuts in place, will continue the intraparty struggle in the Aug. 7 legislative primaries. The results could have major implications for future tax and education policy.
It won’t be the first time the two factions have clashed at the polls. Brownback’s low tax agenda sparked primary waves against incumbents in 2012 and 2016. Moderate Republican incumbents lost 18 members in 2012. Conservative Republican incumbents lost 14 members in 2016.
Anti-Brownback state Rep. Don Schroeder has already drawn a pro-Brownback challenger and is considering retirement. More decisions like this could be coming as the June 1 filing deadline approaches.
More Republican candidates contesting state legislative seats than in previous years
According to Saint Louis University’s Dr. Steven Rogers, more Republicans are running in state legislative districts this year than at any point since 1982.
In the 16 states where filing deadlines have passed, 83 percent of districts have a Republican candidate. Democrats are running in 85 percent of districts.
Republicans contested 66 percent of seats in 1982.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Restoration PAC
"In order to restore America's greatness, we must extract liberal Democrats from office because they are running our country into the ground." -Doug Truax, founder of Restoration PAC
Army veteran and health care consultant Doug Truax founded Restoration PAC following an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate in 2014. The super PAC's Blueprint for the Restoration of America emphasizes foreign policy, the economy, and the size of government, with calls to target terrorists, block nuclear proliferation, and cut federal tax rates and non-security budgets by 25 percent.
This year the PAC is focused on Republican primaries for Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats. Nearly half of the $2.4 million the PAC spent in 2017 went to support Kevin Nicholson, who's competing with state Sen. Leah Vukmir and two other Republicans for the Wisconsin GOP nomination. The winner faces U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in November.
This month, the PAC released ads for Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale and West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Rosendale faces three other candidates in the GOP primary for the seat held by U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Morrisey is competing with five other Republicans for the opportunity to take on U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).
Restoration PAC's chief backer is megadonor Richard Uihlein. More than three-fifths of the $4.1 million the super PAC raised in 2017 came from Uihlein directly. The Uihlein-funded super PAC Solutions for Wisconsin supplied much of the rest.
What we’re reading
- “Republicans bet their Senate majority on Trump” (Politico)
- “Rauner Records Weakest Primary Performance by an Illinois GOP Governor in 90 Years” (Smart Politics)
- “Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Want to Be Democrats’ Next National Cause” (Politico)
- “Illinois primary showcases big money and divided parties” (CNBC)
