Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 12 (April 2, 2018)
This week: Ballot turmoil in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Colorado, plus an Ohio legislative race takes a nasty turn. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 2 (New Jersey), April 5 (Tennessee)
Passed filing deadlines: 30
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,237 Democrats, 965 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“There are a lot of dark clouds ahead for Republicans...The impact of the youth vote isn’t immediate, but it could well have the greatest impact of all.”
- Frank Luntz, quoted by The Associated Press, March 26, 2018
“Despite media reports emphasizing the youth of the protesters, especially the Parkland student leaders, the average marcher was a 49-year-old, college-educated woman, reported Dana R. Fisher, a University of Maryland sociology professor who surveyed the crowd at the march.”
- Mairead Mcardle, National Review, March 28, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 52
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Costello withdrawal leaves McCauley as sole GOP candidate in PA-06
U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.) (pictured left) withdrew his name from the ballot in Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District Tuesday, leaving attorney Greg McCauley as the party’s sole contender for the seat.
Republicans will have to decide whether to support McCauley, pressure him to drop out in favor of a new candidate, or launch a write-in campaign.
Pennsylvania Republican Party chair Val DiGiorgio said, “we’ve got to get to know [McCauley] a little bit better and [put] a team around him.”
“We’ve got some hard work ahead of us,” DiGiorgio said.
The newly redrawn district favored Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Costello said his decision to not seek re-election was due to a “combination of factors.”
“Whether it’s Stormy Daniels, or passing an omnibus spending bill that the president threatens to veto after promising to sign, it’s very difficult to move forward in a constructive way today,” Costello said.
Rubio won’t campaign against Nelson in Florida
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Tuesday he would not campaign against colleague Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). Rubio’s statement came a day after Gov. Rick Scott (R) scheduled a “major announcement”—likely his U.S. Senate campaign kick-off— for April 9.
While Rubio said he would support the Republican nominee and called his relationship with Scott positive, he added he “could not ask for a better partner [in Nelson], especially from the other party.“
Capito staying out of Republican Senate primary
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said Tuesday she will not endorse any Republican in the three-way primary battle for U.S. Senate in West Virginia.
After speaking with Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), and former coal executive Don Blankenship (R), Capito said, “You are big boys and you're expected to fight it out.”
McCombs endorses McCall in TX-21 Republican runoff
San Antonio billionaire Red McCombs gave businessman Matt McCall his first major endorsement in the Republican primary runoff for Texas’ 21st District.
McCall edged out McComb’s preferred candidate, ex-CIA officer William Negley, in the March 6 primary. He faces former Ted Cruz staffer Chip Roy, who finished first in the 21-candidate primary field with 27 percent of the vote, in the runoff.
McCombs’ endorsement came one day after retiring incumbent Lamar Smith (R-Texas) endorsed Roy.
Roy had the support of Cruz, Energy Secretary Rick Perry (R), and the Club for Growth in the primary.
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Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Cedar Rapids Mayor Corbett removed from Iowa ballot
Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett (R) was disqualified from the Iowa gubernatorial election Tuesday, leaving Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) unchallenged in the primary.
A State Objection Panel review of a challenge to Corbett's nominating petitions found several duplicate signatures. Omitting the duplicates left Corbett with 3,997 valid signatures, just short of the 4,005 required to earn ballot status.
Corbett said he would challenge the board's decision in court. Time is a factor, as ballots must be printed for early voting, which begins in May.
The June 5 primary is open to all voters.
Iowa Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/4
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 5/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 28/50
- Seats held in state House: 59/100
Stapleton challenged on nominating petitions
Gubernatorial candidate Doug Robinson (R) (pictured left) accused fellow contender and Colorado Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) (pictured right) of submitting illegally-obtained petition signatures.
Robinson says Stapleton’s petitioning firm used an organizer who was not a registered Colorado voter, a violation of state law. Robinson’s petitioning firm released an audio recording of a phone call with the Stapleton organizer to support its allegations.
In the recording, the organizer allegedly states that he has worked with the Stapleton campaign for signature collection alongside signature gatherers who were not registered to vote. The Stapleton campaign responded that they had no record of the organizer having worked on their behalf.
The Colorado Secretary of State said that it had conducted an investigation and had not found sufficient evidence to proceed further.
Candidates seeking to appear on the gubernatorial primary ballot can either seek the party's nomination at a convention, or collect 1,500 signatures from registered Republicans in each of the state's seven congressional districts.
Both Stapleton and Robinson have submitted their signatures to the Colorado Secretary of State for verification. Because Stapleton's signatures were turned in first, any signatures on both petitions will be counted only for Stapleton.
There are 10 candidates in the June 26 primary, which is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Colorado Republican Party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 2/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 3/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 18/35
- Seats held in state House: 29/65
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 18.4 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 72.2 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 23.5 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 20.9 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
Smith accuses Perales of sexual misconduct
Republican Jocelyn Smith accused her primary opponent, Ohio state Rep. Rick Perales (R-73), of forcibly kissing and attempting to choke her in 2015.
Smith said she also has lewd texts Perales sent to her, and will release them unless he leaves the primary.
Perales, who is married with four children, denied Smith’s accusations, but acknowledged engaging in what he called an “inappropriate” texting relationship with her.
Smith lobbied Perales for a pancreatic cancer specialty license plate bill in 2015 and said that while their relationship was never sexual, she beIieves “if I would of had sex with him I believe he would of helped me with my license plate.”
Perales called Smith “a liar,” and hoped she “gets help.”
“She’s not afraid of changing her story, of one lie to another,” Perales said.
Labor unions pick sides in Householder- Smith fight
State Reps. Ryan Smith and Larry Householder continue to duke it out as each seeks to become the next speaker of the Ohio House.
Householder has picked up support from labor unions, receiving $220,000 from groups like United Steelworkers and the Ohio Teamsters in 2017.
The traditionally Democratic-leaning unions have maintained ties with Ohio Republicans due to the GOP’s dominance in state government. Householder believes Donald Trump’s presidency will encourage more rank-and-file unions members to join the GOP ranks.
Smith criticized Householder’s union fundraising, but said he would also be willing to listen to pro-union members of the Republican caucus as speaker.
State Rep. John Becker said while he doesn’t think either Householder or Smith will push to make Ohio a right-to-work state, “I think the labor unions are going to be equally happy with either candidate.”
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey and you may be featured here.
Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow, and why?
"I look up to Elon Musk honestly, because he has a vision, and he makes things happen, at a fraction of the cost the government is able to do."
- Dustin Long, candidate for North Carolina’s 42nd State Senate District
Read all of Dustin Long's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Susan B. Anthony List
“We just think it’s important that the issue remains bipartisan...[Lipinski] is the model for how we want pro-life Democrats to act in Congress, to choose pro-life principles over party when those two things clash. And he’s really the only one that’s been a consistent pro-life vote.” -Mallory Quigley, Communication Director for Susan B. Anthony List
The Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life lobbying organization that says it “exists to pass laws that protect unborn children and their mothers from abortion,” has endorsed multiple primary candidates. This week, they endorsed Carol Miller for West Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, whom Ballotpedia has identified as a top candidate in the Republican primary. Other group endorsements include Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee and Rep. Martha Roby’s re-election bid in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District.
Susan B. Anthony List also supported Rep. Dan Lipinski’s (D) re-election bid in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District in the final days before the primary, which Lipinski narrowly won. The group spent $900,000 on ads and deployed 70 canvassers who visited 17,000 homes in the District.
What we’re reading
- “Meet Larry Householder" (3rd Rail Politics)
- “Could Health Care Come Back to Hurt GOP in Midterms?” (Real Clear Politics)
- “Will GOP voters stay home in 2018? You would think” (Washington Examiner)
- “Calif. 'Jungle' Primary Presents Concerns for Both Parties” (Real Clear Politics)
