Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 13 (April 9, 2018)
This week: Pawlenty’s back, Corbett’s out, and Indiana shows its family ties. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines:April 9 (North Dakota), April 12 (New York), April 13 (Oklahoma)
Passed filing deadlines:32
Upcoming elections:May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates:1,237 Democrats, 960 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Taken in totality, this bill validates, legitimizes, and codifies the world view of the Democrats, only with slightly less enthusiasm. Which is why the Democrats are crushing Republicans in turnout so far this election season. This bill will essentially end Republican control of Congress.”
- Daniel Horowitz, Conservative Review, March 22, 2018
“I personally wish the President vetoed this bill, made them stay in Washington. Make them keep their promises. What happened to the Republican party––whatever happened to the party that believed in fiscal responsibility? We now need a revitalized second party, Republican party. They need to go back to their core principles. If they don’t by November, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they lose. It won’t be Donald Trump’s fault.”
- Sean Hannity, FOX News, March 23, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 53
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Family ties and rivalries in Indiana races
The costly battle for the U.S. Senate in Indiana features a decades-old rivalry between Reps. Luke Messer (R) and Todd Rokita (R) and a series of memorable ads, including a web clip in which former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) (pictured left) uses cardboard cutouts of his rivals to suggest they are identical.
The race also has a familial twist: Braun’s brother, former state Rep. Steve Braun (R), is running for Rokita’s old seat in Indiana’s 4th Congressional District.
The Braun brothers aren’t the only siblings playing politics in Indiana. Vice President Mike Pence (R) hosted a fundraiser in March for his older brother Greg Pence (R), who is running for Indiana’s 6th Congressional District. The current incumbent for that seat: Luke Messer.
Meadows endorses Jones in NC-03
Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) endorsed incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, calling him a champion of the conservative movement. “If it’s good for the people of eastern North Carolina and it upholds the Constitution, Walter Jones will fight for it,” Meadows said.
A March Civitas Institute primary poll showed Jones leading Craven County Board of Commissioners vice chairman Scott Dacey (R) 37 percent to 28 percent.
Dacey has raised $97,000 to Jones’ $45,000. Sarah Bryner from Open Secrets said it’s "extremely rare for a challenger to outraise an incumbent—only 15 incumbents are being outraised by challengers so far, and only three of those are challengers from the same party.”
House Freedom Caucus backs Leneghan in OH-12, Defending Main Street makes six-figure ad buy for Balderson
Meadows also endorsed Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan (R) in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, joining the House Freedom Caucus and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who also endorsed Leneghan.
Her primary rival, state Sen. Troy Balderson (R), is getting support from Defending Main Street, which spent $240,000 on a cable and digital ad buy for him this month.
Defending Main Street supports moderate Republicans and works to counter the spending of groups like Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Pawlenty announces run for old seat
Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) announced Thursday that he would seek the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Pawlenty was first elected governor in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006. He ran for President in 2012 but withdrew following the Iowa caucuses in Aug. 2011.
Eleven candidates are running in the GOP primary, including Hennepin County Commissioner, and 2014 gubernatorial nominee, Jeff Johnson (R). Pawlenty has not indicated whether he will seek the party endorsement at the state convention in June. Securing that endorsement does not allow a candidate to bypass the Aug. 14 primary election.
The filing deadline is June 5. The Aug. 14 primary is open to all registered voters.
Minnesota Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/67
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 77/134
Judge upholds Corbett's disqualification
Polk County Judge David May upheld a state panel's decision to disqualify Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett's (R) bid to enter the GOP primary against Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA).
May sided with the Iowa State Objection Panel’s finding that several of the signatures on Corbett's nominating petitions were invalid. The Panel found Corbett had submitted 3,997 valid signatures-- short of the 4,005 required.
Corbett said he would not run as an independent and would back Reynolds, who is now unopposed in the June 5 primary election.
Iowa Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 3/4
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 5/7
- Seats held in state Senate: 28/50
- Seats held in state House: 59/100
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 13.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 54.8 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 16.9 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 17.3 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
Alaska Supreme Court ruling could shake up Republican primaries
Alaska GOP chairman Tuckerman Babcock said an Alaska Supreme Court ruling allowing independents to run in the Democratic primary means Republicans can bar candidates from participating in their 2018 primaries.
The state Supreme Court affirmed a lower court decision that held the Democratic Party was allowed to change its rules so that independents (like Gov. Bill Walker) could compete in its primary.
Babcock claims the high court ruling gives political parties a constitutional right to determine their primary candidates.
In December, Babcock asked the Division of Elections (DoE) to remove Republican state Reps. Paul Seaton, Gabrielle LeDoux, and Louise Stutes from the GOP primary. The DoE declined.
Babcock said he will ask the DoE to reconsider its decision and will sue if it does not find in his favor.
Seaton, LeDoux, and Stutes left the GOP following the 2016 elections and formed a majority coalition with Democrats and independents, despite Republicans having won a 21 seat majority in the 40-member state House.
Indiana senate primary features divisions on social issues
Voters will choose between socially-conservative state Sen. Mike Delph (R) and Corrie Meyer, his pro-business challenger, in the May 8 Republican primary for Indiana Senate District 29.
Delph supported Indiana’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act in 2015--which opponents said would have resulted in anti-LGBTQ discrimination--and has favored legislation requiring school children to learn biblical theories of human origin. He was endorsed by Indiana Right to Life.
Meyer focuses on economic development issues and, according to Indianapolis Business Journal commentator Mickey Maurer, has taken “relatively moderate stances on the flash issues” of abortion, gun policy, and LGBTQ issues. She was endorsed by the Indy Chamber of Commerce.
Hillary Clinton won the District by nearly 12 percentage points in 2016.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey and you may be featured here.
What qualities do you possess that you believe would make you a successful officeholder?
"I am a good listener. When I lack an understanding of something, I research, listen to opinions, and think creatively to come to the best outcomes, remembering we are working to be fiscally responsible."
- Marilyn Tunnat, candidate for Ohio’s 32nd House of Representatives District
Read all of Marilyn Tunnat's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Maggie’s List
“What are Republican women doing about Donald Trump?...By recognizing that we now have the best tax policy since the 80s, that we see a booming economy where businesses that we either own or that our families work for are thriving thanks to deregulation, that the military is strengthened rather than gutted… That’s what they’re doing about Donald Trump. -Missy Shorey, Executive Director of Maggie’s List
Described as the Republican equivalent of EMILY’s List, the conservative Maggie’s List has backed 12 candidates in 2018, including Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, Beth Lindstrom for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, and Catherine Templeton in the South Carolina governor’s race.
Maggie’s List calls itself a political action committee “created to raise awareness and funds to increase the number of conservative women elected to federal public office.”
Its board of directors include Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Ca.), Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi (R), and former Florida Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll. Maggie’s List has spent about $60,000 in races so far this year.
What we’re reading
- “Bucking the 'Blue Wave' -- Republicans would be smart to focus on Hispanic voters in 2018” (FOX News)
- “Can ‘Reluctant Trump’ Voters Rescue the G.O.P.?” (The New York Times)
- “Republicans beware: Union workers are often your margin of victory” (Washington Examiner)
- “Trump Is ‘Saving Us’: Minnesota Mining Country Warms to Tariffs and G.O.P.” (The New York Times)
