Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 14 (April 16, 2018)
This week: Ryan’s out, Pence makes more endorsements, a new wrinkle in the Ohio speaker fight, and big names flock to Cagle. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 24 (Michigan), May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 35
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,232 Democrats, 969 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“We will have 435 individual elections in individual congressional districts, and the GOP will field experienced, battle-tested and well-funded incumbents and exciting new candidates in as many of them as possible. In each of those districts is where the battle for the House majority will be won or lost. Ryan’s departure is a loss for the GOP, but it does not clearly augur a GOP loss in November.” - Michael Steel, The Washington Post, April 11, 2018
“Mr. Ryan says he’s confident Republicans will keep their House majority in the midterms, but his decision reflects a recognition that one of two outcomes is likely—neither of which is promising for GOP leadership...One is that Democrats take the House…The other possibility is that Republicans end up with a diminished majority that makes governing more difficult.” - Karl Rove, The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 54
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Ryan and Ross announce retirements from House
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) announced he will not seek re-election. A Republican insider told Axios Ryan’s decision “is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can’t be held.”
House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are the leading candidates to replace Ryan as speaker.
Four-term Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) also announced he is not running for re-election.
The Cook Political Report adjusted its ratings for both districts. Wisconsin’s 1st fell from Solid Republican to Lean Republican, and Florida’s 15th dropped to from Solid to Likely Republican.
NRA endorses Hagan in OH-16 battle between millennial conservatives
The National Rifle Association endorsed state Rep. Christina Hagan (R) over former Ohio State football player Anthony Gonzalez in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.
The Susan B. Anthony List and the House Freedom Fund have also endorsed Hagan.
Both Hagan and Gonzales are millennials, but their views of the party’s future differ. Hagan has aligned herself with the Trump administration on immigration and trade policy and looks to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.
Gonzalez says he supports Trump but cites Trump critic Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) as his legislative role model. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), local Republican groups, and top Ohio donors back Gonzales.
Pence endorses Pounds in TX-05 runoff
Vice President Mike Pence (R) endorsed political consultant Bunni Pounds for Texas’ 5th Congressional District.
The Club for Growth and House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) also support Pounds, who faces state Rep. Lance Gooden (R) in the Republican primary runoff.
Pounds is supported by local figures such as former state legislators Florence Shapiro (R) and John Carona (R) and Dallas hotel magnate Monty Bennett.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Stapleton, Lopez secure place on ballot in Colorado primary
At the Republican Party of Colorado's state assembly Saturday, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) and former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R) earned places on the June 26 primary ballot in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (R).
In order to secure a spot on the ballot, candidates needed to receive at least 30 percent of the vote at the state assembly or turn in petitions from 1,500 registered party members in each of the state's seven congressional districts. Stapleton led the vote with 44 percent support, followed by Lopez at 33 percent. Although they did not contest the state assembly, businessman Doug Robinson (R) and former state Rep. Victor Mitchell (R) submitted nominating petitions to the Colorado secretary of state and will also appear on the ballot if their petitions are verified.
Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) received 5 percent of the vote and will not appear on the primary ballot.
Stapleton had announced Wednesday that he had reason to believe that the firm that he had hired to collect petition signatures had not followed legal guidelines and that he was withdrawing from the signature-gathering process. The announcement meant that even though Stapleton had submitted nominating petitions, he needed to go through the state assembly to secure a spot on the ballot.
The June 26 primary is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Colorado Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 2/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 4/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 3/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 18/35
- Seats held in state House: 29/65
Cagle gets two major endorsements
The National Rifle Association and the Georgia Realtors Association endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) gubernatorial bid Thursday, boosting his campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R).
The NRA endorsement comes two months after Cagle moved to block a $40 million tax break for Delta Airlines after the company rescinded a discount program for NRA members in the aftermath of a school shooting in Parkland, Florida.
"Corporations cannot attack conservatives and expect us not to fight back," Cagle said when announcing he would block the tax break.
Seven candidates are seeking the GOP nomination in the May 22 primary, which is open to all registered voters. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff election July 24.
Georgia Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 8/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 4/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 10/14
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 8/8
- Seats held in state Senate: 37/56
- Seats held in state House: 116/180
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 11.7 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 55.0 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 13.6 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 16.9 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Rosenberger resignation opens new front in Ohio speakership battle
Ohio state House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger’s (R) surprise resignation over an FBI investigation into his relationships with lobbyists has muddled the 2019 speakership race between state Reps. Ryan Smith (R) and Larry Householder (R).
Interim Speaker Kirk Schuring (R) will decide when Rosenberger’s successor is selected. If Smith or Householder serves out the remainder of Rosenberger’s term as speaker, that person could improve his standing for the 2019 race.
Schuring could also stay in the job, or appoint another caretaker speaker, to serve out the 2018 term. Such a move would put the choice of speaker in voters’ hands, as Householder and Smith are backing competing slates of candidates in the GOP primaries.
Smith, who chairs the House Finance Committee, says he has the support of the majority of the chamber’s GOP incumbents. His close relationship with Rosenberger, however, might cause some to reconsider.
Householder also faced an FBI investigation related to campaign finance improprieties when he previously served as speaker in the early 2000s. He was not charged with a crime.
Sparks faces third consecutive primary challenge
Tennessee state Rep. Mike Sparks (R) faces Smyrna Town Councilman Tim Morrell in the Aug. 2 GOP primary, marking the third consecutive election cycle in which Sparks has had an intra-party rival for the nomination.
Morrell says Sparks is hostile to necessary infrastructure legislation, including Gov. Bill Haslam’s (R) 2017 plan to raise gas taxes to support road projects. Sparks said he opposes tax increases and thinks the state should better manage existing revenue.
Sparks’ previous challengers were Rutherford County Commissioner Robert Stevens in 2014 and Rutherford County Board of Education member Aaron Holladay in 2016. He beat Stevens by 8.4 percent and Holladay by 56 percent.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What is something that has been a struggle in your life?
"In 2011 my company was downsized and I found myself out of a job. My wife and I knew that the economy was tough, but I knew I was physically able to work and I didn't feel it would be necessary for me to take government assistance. A friend of mine owned a kennel and dog training facility and he offered me a job. For the next year I earned minimum wage cleaning out dog kennels and training dogs. This humbled me and made me appreciate the simple things in life. My wife encouraged me to go back to school and use the Post 911 GI Bill. I did and I earned my MBA and 7 years later we have our own international company. The American Dream is alive and well and we need people who understand that to be representatives." - Stephen MacKenzie, candidate for Indiana's 6th Congressional District
Read all of Stephen MacKenzie's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Sebastian Gorka
“John has been a loyal supporter of our president from the beginning—committed to enacting our ‘America First’ agenda...We need fighters like John in Congress to go to work with President Trump and vote on behalf of the American people. For far too long Washington has forgotten the men and women that are our nation. With citizen-politicians like John McCann we can finally ‘drain the swamp.’” - Sebastian Gorka
Former Trump aide and Fox News contributor Sebastian Gorka is backing a number of pro-Trump candidates in the 2018 primaries.
Gorka resigned his White House position in August 2017, soon after the administration’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon, was fired. Gorka said he left because those officials most supportive of the president’s “Make America Great Again” platform had been “internally countered, systematically removed, or undermined in recent months.”
On the campaign trail, Gorka has endorsed John McCann in the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District. Gorka spoke at a McCann fundraiser during which McCann’s campaign referred to Gorka as a “Trump force.”
McCann faces Steve Lonegan, a former Donald Trump critic backed by Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.
Gorka also endorsed state Sen. Christina Hagan, a self-described pro-Trump candidate in the race for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. Hagan has cast herself as a social and fiscal conservative connected to other former Trump administration figures like Anthony Scaramucci.
Gorka originally endorsed Danny Tarkanian’s (R) Nevada Senate bid. Tarkanian later dropped out of that contest, and entered the race for a U.S. House seat instead at the president’s request.
What we’re reading
- “Newt Gingrich: California may elect a Republican governor -- Incredible as that sounds” (FOX News)
- “Trouble in Trump land: In one red Ohio county, the Republican party finds itself torn apart” (The Enquirer)
- “Stop Trying To Make Beto Happen; Ted Cruz Will Trounce Him And Here’s Why” (RedState)
- “Watch Out, Ted Cruz. Beto is Coming.” (The New York Times)
