Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 15 (April 23, 2018)
This week: Tuesday’s special election in Arizona, Blankenship unloads on McConnell, and Rauner gets a fresh challenge from his right. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: April 24 (Michigan), May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 35
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,226 Democrats, 961 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
“Here is my theory about this upcoming election: If the economy is perceived to be either strong or getting stronger by the majority of voters, Republicans will keep the House and expand their majority in the Senate.
The reason has nothing to do about the efficacy of the Trump tax cuts. When the economy is strong, voters focus on cultural and social issues, which tend to cut better for the GOP. When the economy is weak, voters turn to the Democrats, because they figure they will find ways to spend money to take care of them.” - John Feehery, The Hill, April 16, 2018
“Just compare the results to an appropriate baseline (like Trump’s performance or partisan lean), average it and look at the data in the context of important polls like presidential approval and the generic ballot. And a coherent picture emerges from that data: that Democrats are going to make big gains in the 2018 midterms, probably taking the House and possibly the Senate as well.” - David Byler, The Weekly Standard, April 16, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 192
- Republican seats heading into November: 237
- Open seats: 54
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District special election preview
Former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) faces physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District special election Tuesday to fill the seat left vacant by incumbent Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).
Even though the district leans Republican, and backed the GOP presidential nominee by 20 points or more in each of the past three election cycles, national groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Republican National Committee have spent nearly $900,000 supporting Lesko.
Lesko defeated Franks-endorsed state Sen. Steve Montenegro (R), former state Rep. Phil Lovas (R), and nine other candidates in the Republican primary. Several commentators attributed Lesko’s victory to reports that Montenegro exchanged inappropriate text messages with a staffer.
Romney to compete in primary for Utah’s Senate seat after Utah GOP does not endorse him
Mitt Romney suffered a setback in his bid for the Senate seat vacated by Orrin Hatch (R) when the Utah Republican Party did not endorse him at its convention Saturday.
A candidate needed 60 percent of the delegates’ votes to bypass the June 26 Republican primary. State Rep. Mike Kennedy received 51 percent to Romney’s 49 percent. This sets up a primary battle between the two that the well-known Romney is favored to win.
Support for the Trump presidency is a key point of division between Kennedy and Romney.
Kennedy praised the president during his speech at the convention. Romney--who was endorsed by Trump after announcing his Senate bid--said he largely agreed with the president’s agenda, but he declined to endorse him for re-election in 2020.
McCarthy and House Freedom Caucus back opposing candidates in OH-16
The intra-party maneuvering to replace outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has spilled over to Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, as U.S. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and the House Freedom Caucus have endorsed rival candidates in the GOP primary.
McCarthy is backing Anthony Gonzalez (R) while the Freedom Caucus has endorsed state Rep. Christina Hagan (R).
Relations between McCarthy and the Freedom Caucus have been strained since the group helped block McCarthy’s bid for the speakership in 2015. The group’s opposition cleared the way for Ryan to take the post.
Ryan, who announced April 11 he will not seek re-election, endorsed McCarthy as his replacement after former Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said he is considering a bid for the top House job.
Blankenship accuses McConnell of meddling in West Virginia Senate election
Former coal magnate Don Blankenship (R) accused Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) of meddling in West Virginia’s U.S. Senate election after a super PAC with ties to Republican Senate leaders launched a $700,000 ad campaign aimed at thwarting Blankenship’s campaign.
While the newly formed Mountain Families PAC has no formal ties to party leadership, it was registered by former Republican National Committee officer Benjamin Ottenhoff. The PAC also employs media and consulting firms previously used by the McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund.
“[McConnell] is a Swamp captain,” Blankenship said. “The Russians and McConnell should both stop interfering with elections outside their jurisdictions.”
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, “Wasn’t [Blankenship] convicted of a crime? That sort of background doesn’t lend itself to public office.”
McConnell said he is waiting for a nominee to be selected before getting involved in the race, adding “hopefully it will be one who is actually electable.”
Blankenship is self-funding his campaign and has spent more than $1.1 million since November. He faces state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-W.Va.) in the May 8 Republican primary.
Club for Growth endorses Cloud in TX-27 runoff
Club for Growth is backing activist Michael Cloud (R) over former Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun (R) in the May 22 Republican primary runoff for Texas’ 27th Congressional District.
The group said the race “presents the choice between an outsider—Michael Cloud—and the career bureaucrat, Bech Bruun." All other Republican candidates from the March 6 primary, as well as the House Freedom Caucus, have endorsed Cloud.
Energy Secretary Rick Perry (R) and Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) have endorsed Bruun, who has also raised more money than Cloud.
Club for Growth is backing candidates in four of the five Republican primary runoffs in Texas.
The group has not endorsed a candidate in the race for Rep. Ted Poe’s (R-Texas) 2nd Congressional District seat.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Pawlenty leads Minnesota money race
Newly released fundraising totals show former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) leading the GOP field, having raised $1 million since opening his campaign account March 19.
Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) raised $370,000.
Former Minnesota GOP Chairman Keith Downey (R) raised $180,000 before suspending his campaign Wednesday.
Delegates to the party’s June convention will decide which of the 10 candidates in the race will the party’s endorsement ahead of the Aug. 14 primary. Candidates who fail to receive the party's endorsement often suspend their campaigns.
Minnesota Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/67
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 77/134
McCann launches third party challenge to Rauner
Illinois state Sen. Sam McCann (R) announced Thursday that he would challenge Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in November's election on the Conservative Party ticket.
McCann’s campaign is adopting many of the criticisms of state Rep. Jeanne Ives' (R) raised in her unsuccessful bid to topple Rauner in the Republican primary.
Like Ives, McCann is criticizing Rauner’s decisions to sign both the TRUST Act and HB 40.
The TRUST Act prohibits state and local law enforcement from detaining an individual solely based on whether they have legal permission to reside in the country. HB 40 requires state-administered Medicaid and state employee health insurance plans to cover access to abortion.
Illinois Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 7/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 22/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 51/118
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 11.4 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 51.7 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 13.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 17.1 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Householder sues opposition groups over primary ads
Ohio state Rep. Larry Householder, a top contender for the state House speakership in 2019, is suing two outside groups running negative ads against him and his allies ahead of the May 8 Republican primaries.
Householder’s suit alleges the Honors and Principles PAC and the Conservative Alliance PAC defamed him by running a television ad about an early 2000s FBI investigation into his campaign contributions.
The FBI investigated Householder, who was speaker at the time, but no charges were filed against him.
The two anonymously-funded PACs have spent $350,000 on television and radio ads targeting Householder and his preferred candidates.
Householder and his top rival for the speakership, House Finance Committee Chairman Ryan Smith, are supporting competing Republican primary candidates who they expect to support their respective leadership bids.
Straus endorses replacement for state House seat
Retiring Texas House Speaker Joe Straus endorsed Steve Allison in the May 22 primary runoff for Straus’s San Antonio-based seat.
Allison faces Matt Beebe, who challenged Straus in 2014 and 2016 and is aligned with a faction of Republicans--including the Texas Freedom Caucus--that opposed Straus’s tax and education policies.
Pro- and anti-Straus candidates will face off in five of the seven GOP runoffs May 22.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey and you may be featured here.
What do you perceive to be your state's greatest challenges over the next decade?
"To alleviate the drug crisis, reverse the trend of rising instances of crime, addressing the needs of the foster care system in West Virginia, and creating sustainable job growth by administering a taxation system more like Tennessee."
- Brandon Steele, candidate for West Virginia's 29th House of Delegates District
Read all of Brandon Steele's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Club for Growth
“Michael Cloud is a true constitutional conservative in the mold of Ron Paul and Ted Cruz. This race presents the choice between an outsider — Michael Cloud — and the career bureaucrat, Bech Bruun,” -David McIntosh, Club for Growth president
The conservative group Club for Growth endorsed Republican activist Michael Cloud this week over former Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun in the Republican primary runoff for Texas' 27th Congressional District.
The race will likely determine who replaces Blake Farenthold (R) in a safe Republican district. Club for Growth joined the Tea Party Patriots’ Suzanne Guggenheim and the House Freedom Fund in backing Cloud.
Club for Growth endorsed three other Texas candidates in open seats that went to a runoff: Bunni Pounds for the 5th district, Ron Wright for the 6th District, and Chip Roy for the 21st District.
The Washington Examiner’s David M. Drucker says that while the Club for Growth is “often at odds with the Republican establishment in Washington,” the group is modifying its approach in the primaries to avoid weakening the GOP in advance of the November elections.
“Rather than targeting incumbents,” Drucker writes, “the group is focusing its attention on nominating preferred candidates in nine open seats.”
What we’re reading
- “Fealty to Trump has become the coin of the realm for GOP Senate candidates” (The Washington Post)
- “Trump’s State” (The Weekly Standard)
- “North Carolina ‘bathroom bill’ saga lingers in election year” (WTOP)
- “Paul Ryan and the End of an Era” (The Weekly Standard)
