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Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 18 (May 14, 2018)
This week: Previewing the May 15 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: May 18 (Washington), May 30 (Arizona), May 31 (Vermont)
Passed filing deadlines: 37
Upcoming elections: May 15 (Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania), May 22 (Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,224 Democrats, 984 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Does Ericsson think that, if literally every conservative went Full Gorka, Republicans would attract more voters? I’m going to need him to show his work.
More to the point, if the argument is that there’s no room on the right for people who want to stay in their lanes, make arguments, and try to persuade people, then the Right is doomed, and deservedly so.” - Jonah Goldberg, National Review, May 4, 2018
“When one side in politics plays dirty and violates established rules and norms (which flow from our Constitution and our history as a nation), the solution is not to whine that it’s happening and then get skittish about fighting back—it’s to fight back. Make the other side pay a price for its repellent practices. Impose costs for undesired and dangerous behavior.” - Deion Kathawa, American Greatness, May 2, 2018
May 15 primaries preview
Three candidates vying for Pennsylvania gubernatorial nomination
State Sen. Scott Wagner (R), businessman Paul Mango (R), and attorney Laura Ellsworth (R) are seeking Pennsylvania’s the GOP gubernatorial governor of Pennsylvania in Tuesday's primary.
The Republican Party of Pennsylvania endorsed Wagner, who owns a waste disposal business. Wagner’s ads emphasize his claim he is the most electable candidate to face incumbent Tom Wolf (D) in the general election.
Like Wagner, Mango has emphasized his background and portrayed himself as running against a distant and corrupt Harrisburg.
Ellsworth has focused on her outsider status. Her first ads appeared earlier this month, including one featuring clips of her opponents' ads attacking one another.
Wagner’s spots label Mango as a liberal, while Mango’s ads accuse Wagner, a former landlord, of predatory practices.
Republicans vying for PA-07 emphasize support for Trump
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District is going to get a more Trump-friendly GOP nominee after the May 15 primary than the former incumbent, Rep. Charlie Dent (R).
Olympic gold medal cyclist Marty Nothstein and businessman Dean Browning are campaigning on pro-Trump platforms, promising to be supportive of the president and his agenda.
It’s a shift in tone from Dent, a moderate who opposed the White House on some key issues, including health care reform and immigration.
Court-ordered redistricting changed the District’s partisan leanings. Trump carried the old District by 7.6 percentage points in 2016. The new lines make it a +1.1 percentage point Clinton seat.
Three-way nomination battle in ID-01 primary
House Freedom Caucus founder Raul Labrador is running for governor. But in his old House U.S. House seat, three candidates are vying to replace him, including one Labrador has endorsed.
Labrador picked former state Sen. Russ Fulcher as his successor even though Fulcher has not committed to joining the House Freedom Caucus. The Club for Growth and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz also back Fulcher.
David Leroy, the state’s lieutenant governor and former attorney general, led in early polls, though most voters were undecided. Leroy wants to focus on the federal deficit in Congress.
The Republican Main Street Partnership endorsed state Rep. Luke Malek, who said he would have supported the $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress in March.
Club for Growth and Republican Main Street Partnership take sides in wide-open PA-13
The Club for Growth’s super PAC has been running ads opposing John Joyce in Pennsylvania’s newly-drawn 13th Congressional District. The ads criticize Joyce for contributing $1,500 to a PAC that supported the Affordable Care Act.
Meanwhile, the super PAC associated with the Republican Main Street Partnership, which endorsed Joyce, has sent mailings critical of candidates Art Halvorson and state Senator John Eichelberger Jr.
Eight candidates are seeking the GOP nomination. Donald Trump won the newly-drawn District by more than 40 points in 2016.
Oregon gubernatorial race narrows in final weeks
In Oregon’s GOP primary, state Rep. Knute Buehler (R) and businessman Sam Carpenter (R), are in a close race where the most recent polling shows a sizeable chunk of voters are still undecided.
Buehler has long been considered the frontrunner and has focused on the general election, emphasizing his electability and running ads targeting incumbent Gov. Kate Brown.
Carpenter has adopted the messaging of President Trump, registering and running on the campaign slogan "Make Oregon Great Again."
Pacific University professor Jim Moore said the race’s recent narrowing is "entirely because Buehler ran a campaign that didn't seem to pay attention to the Republican electorate and now is having to play catch up." Buehler campaign manager Rebecca Tweed disputed the poll’s legitimacy, saying it was from a “left-leaning” firm trying to “help Kate Brown.”
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 235
- Open seats: 53
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Blankenship not out of the fight for West Virginia
Former coal baron Don Blankenship (R) lost to state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in the West Virginia Senate primary Tuesday by 15 points, but he is not yet out of the fight.
Blankenship campaign manager Greg Thomas said Blankenship, who loaned his campaign $3.5 million, was considering financially supporting a third-party candidate.
“I think the one thing [Blankenship] is going to make sure doesn’t happen is that Patrick Morrisey becomes a U.S. senator,” Thomas said.
Brewer endorses McSally in Arizona Senate race
Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed former Air Force pilot and Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the three-way Republican Senate primary.
“We need a strong candidate coming out of the primary and she's the gal that can get it done,” Brewer said.
Although McSally votes with Trump 97 percent of the time, she did not endorse him for president in 2016. Brewer acted as a surrogate for President Donald Trump (R) during his presidential campaign and could boost McSally among his base.
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) and former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) have closely aligned themselves with Trump in the race.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Both sitting representatives and candidates for office hear many personal stories from the residents of their district. Is there a story that you’ve heard that you found particularly touching, memorable, or impactful?
"I have met a number of veterans that have touching stories. One suffered serious multiple injuries in hand-to-hand combat in Vietnam. He has been denied a purple heart because a government building housing military records was destroyed by fire."
- Robert Kuniegel, candidate for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
Read all of Robert Kuniegel's responses →
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Corcoran passes on run for governor
Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R) announced Wednesday he would not join the crowded Republican field seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and instead endorsed Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) for the position.
Corcoran said he would use the $2.5 million remaining in his Florida Watchdog PAC, which had been laying the groundwork for his gubernatorial run, to support Republican candidates for the state House.
Eleven candidates are running in the Aug. 28 primary. The filing deadline is June 22. The primary is open only to registered Republicans.
Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R) wins GOP endorsement for governor of Connecticut
Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R) won the gubernatorial endorsement of the Republican Party of Connecticut after three rounds of voting at the party's annual convention Saturday.
Boughton was one of nine candidates who sought the party's endorsement at the convention. Businessman Steve Obsitnik (R) and Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst (R) received more than 15 percent of the vote at the convention, earning spots on the August 14 primary ballot alongside Boughton.
In order to appear on the primary ballot, candidates for statewide office in Connecticut must receive at least 15 percent of the votes at their party's annual convention or turn in petitions containing the signatures of at least two percent of registered party members in the state before the June 12 filing deadline.
Four additional candidates, including two who unsuccessfully sought the party's nomination at the convention, have indicated that they will attempt to appear on the primary ballot via petition.
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 15.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 49.3 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 14.4 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 16.5 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
Two Georgia state House Republicans face competitive primary challenges
Georgia state Reps. Matt Gurtler (R-6) and Betty Price (R-48) both face competitive primaries May 22.
House Republican leaders, including Speaker David Ralston, are angry with Gurtler for voting against parts of the party agenda, and are backing his challenger, Mickey Cummings.
Gurtler has represented the rural north Georgia District since 2017.
Price, wife of former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price (R), faces former Roswell Mayor Jere Wood in a battle for the suburban Atlanta district.
Personality more than policy separates the two, as Wood says Price is difficult to work with and has not built relationships at the state capitol. Price says her sponsorship of successful property tax caps in metro Atlanta counties shows her effectiveness.
Wood also said some additional revenue could be needed to pay for transit in the district. Price’s main priority is keeping taxes low.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
With Honor Fund
The With Honor Fund describes itself as a “cross-partisan organization” devoted to electing veterans. It has made a number of endorsements in the 2018 primaries, including Jake Ellzey (R) for Texas’ 6th Congressional District, Damon Martinez (D) for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, and Dan Feehan for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District.
The group also endorsed Texas 2nd District congressional candidate Dan Crenshaw (R).
After the March 6 primary, the group spent $420,000, including paying for television and digital ads, supporting Crenshaw in the May 22 runoff against state Rep. Kevin Roberts (R).
The group Conservative Results Matter disclosed it spent $141,000 against Crenshaw May 1.
What we’re reading
- “The 2016 election was far from a fluke” (New York Post)
- “Is the Midwest the Next South for the Democratic Party?” (American Greatness)
- “Incumbency Is Toxic in the 2018 Republican Primaries” (The Atlantic)
- “'Dark money' group tied to Ricketts family buys ads targeting State Legislature candidates” (Omaha World-Herald)
