Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 1 (January 15, 2018)
Welcome to the first edition of The Heart of the Primaries, Ballotpedia’s weekly update on the candidates, issues, and policies that will shape the 2018 Republican primary season.
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Upcoming filing deadlines: West Virginia (Jan. 27), Kentucky (Jan. 30)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas (2)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,086 Democrats, 757 Republicans
Republican Pundits on the News
Where are Republican and conservative pundits in disagreement? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program: Deal or no deal?
“There is a real consensus in Washington to let Dreamers stay in the country. So let them. Take that issue off the table. We can deal with citizenship later and whether they should be required to serve in the military or get a college degree. We can let the several states decide per state whether to let Dreamers qualify for state benefits. Congress does not need to address those issues right now. Just take deportation off the table.”
- Erick Erickson, Townhall, Jan. 12, 2018
“It is not Trump's tweets, if anything, that could jeopardize his re-election but getting in bed with Democrats on their issues or cooperating with the very establishment he has promised to uproot. If Trump betrays his base on his signature issue hoping to thereby expand his base, he will have a very difficult time being re-elected. He will never get liberals to vote for him, no matter how many concessions he makes, and in the process, he will lose the intensity radiating from his base.”
- David Limbaugh, Townhall, Jan. 12, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Republican seats heading into November: 239
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Open seats: 43
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 29
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
U.S. Senate:
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Democratic seats heading into November: 47
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
Cramer is out in North Dakota Senate race
U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) announced Thursday that he would not challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) for her seat in the U.S. Senate, leaving Republicans scrambling to find a candidate with the same level of name recognition in this race to watch.
There is still one Republican: state Sen. Tom Campbell. Former U.S. Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.), who lost to Heitkamp by one percentage point in 2012, could also seek a rematch. The filing deadline is April 9.
McSally enters Arizona Senate race, aligns with Trump
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) entered the U.S. Senate race in Arizona Friday. "Like our president, I'm tired of PC politicians and their BS excuses. I'm a fighter pilot and I talk like one. That’s why I told Washington Republicans to grow a pair of ovaries and get the job done," she said in a video announcing her candidacy.
Also new in the race this week: another Trump favorite, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R).
In an ABC15/OHPI poll, McSally led with 31 percent support to Arpaio’s 29 percent and former state Sen. Kelli Ward’s 25 percent.
Royce, Issa retiring in 2019...but that’s not the end of the story
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Ed Royce (R-Calif.) announced that he will not seek re-election to California's 39th Congressional District, becoming the 42nd member of the U.S. House and the eighth committee chairman to do so. Former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff (R) and three other Republicans entered the race following Royce’s announcement.
U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) of California’s 49th followed suit Wednesday. Don’t count Issa out entirely: he may run for California’s 50th if colleague Duncan Hunter (R), who is under both federal and congressional ethics investigations, resigns.
Lucky 13 in Arizona’s 8th
Thirteen Republicans are running in the special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.
This district, which backed the Republican presidential nominee by 20 points or more in the past three election cycles, is safely Republican. Among the candidates are three former and current members of the Legislature: state Sens. Debbie Lesko (R) and Steve Montenegro (R) and former state Rep. Phil Lovas (R).
Montenegro has the edge in endorsements from former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and resigned incumbent Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), but Lovas has the Trump card -- he led the president’s campaign in Arizona in 2016.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 3 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 14 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Dave Osmek ends bid for Minnesota governorship
State Sen. Dave Osmek (R) dropped out of the Republican gubernatorial primary Monday, citing below-expected results in a straw poll of party leaders conducted last month. In his announcement, Osmek said he "would encourage all the other Republican candidates who aren’t getting traction with GOP activists to also withdraw so that we can present a united front to the liberal candidates in the DFL."
Osmek's withdrawal narrows the field of candidates in the Aug. 14 primary election to 10, although candidates have until June 5 to file. Among the potential candidates are state Speaker of the House Kurt Daudt (R), U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R).
Minnesota Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/67
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 76/134
Connecticut Republicans hold second candidate forum as field widens
The Republican Party of Connecticut held its second of five scheduled candidate forums in the gubernatorial primary Wednesday. Eight of the 14 declared candidates were in attendance, as was Chief Deputy Senate Republican Majority Leader Toni Boucher (R), who is exploring a run. In addition to fiscal policy, the candidates debated what sort of background and experience the eventual nominee should have. Attorney Peter Lumaj (R) and businessman Steve Obsitnik (R) argued in favor of selecting a political newcomer, with Obsitnik asking attendees "Do you trust another career politician to solve that problem?" Boucher, state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan (R), and former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst (R), argued in favor of a seasoned nominee, saying that "Donald Trump is not the most unpopular [person] in Connecticut...[t]he most unpopular person in Connecticut is [Gov.] Dan Malloy and this election is about his eight years of failure."
The day before, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R) moved his campaign out of the exploratory phase and committed to a run. Boughton ran for governor in 2010, dropping out to seek the lieutenant governorship instead. He and gubernatorial nominee Tom Foley (R) were defeated in the general election. Boughton ran again in 2014, withdrawing before the primary.
The filing deadline for this race is June 12. At some point before then, the Connecticut Republican Party will hold its annual convention, during which delegates will vote on a gubernatorial candidate to endorse. To appear on the primary ballot, a candidate must either receive at least 15 percent of the vote in the nominating convention or obtain signatures from at least 2 percent of registered Republican voters in the state. Should only one candidate qualify, the nomination will go to that candidate by default.
Connecticut Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 4/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 0/5
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 18/36
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 71/151
Jeanne Ives endorsed by local Republican Party committees
The Chicago Republican Party endorsed state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) over sitting Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) Thursday in the March 20 primary. The party central committee voted 17-3 in favor of endorsing Ives with two members abstaining in a meeting Wednesday evening.
On Saturday, Ives received the endorsement of the Wheeling Township Republican Party. In her tweet announcing the endorsement, Ives noted that Wheeling had cast more votes in the 2014 Republican primary election than 89 out of the state’s 102 counties. Ives is the only declared primary challenger to Gov. Rauner.
Illinois Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 7/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 22/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 67/118
Massachusetts primary elections rescheduled
The 2018 Massachusetts primaries were moved from Sept. 18 to Sept. 4 due to a conflict with the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur. The elections could not be rescheduled on Sept. 11 because of a conflict with the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah, or Sept. 25 because of a federal law requiring general election absentee ballots to be available for military voters at least 45 days in advance of the election date.
State legislatures
We know that federal elections draw national scrutiny and attention. But what about down-ballot in state legislatures? What kinds of trends and patterns are emerging in the race for control of the state capitals? This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, the number of incumbents defeated, and total Republican primaries in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed
| State legislative Republican primaries, 2018 vs. 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2016 | |
| Candidates running | 344 | 299 |
| Incumbent primary challenges | 40 | 39 |
| Incumbent primary defeats | N/A | N/A |
| Total Republican primaries | 76 | 58 |
Takeaway: In the two states (Illinois and Texas) where candidate lists are now written in stone, there has been a 15 percent increase in the number of Republican candidates running, a 2.6 percent increase in the number of Republican incumbents facing primary challenges, and a 31 percent increase in the total number of Republican state legislative primaries.
Pick a side in the 2018 Texas state legislative primaries
Conflict between Republicans factions in the Texas state legislative primaries picked up this week after Gov. Greg Abbott and House Speaker Joe Straus endorsed candidates in opposite camps. Gov. Abbott endorsed conservative activist Mayes Middleton, who is running in the state House District 23 primary against incumbent Wayne Faircloth, a Straus ally, while Straus backed state Rep. Hugh Shine, who is facing two primary challengers in District 55. One of Shine’s primary challengers, C.J. Grisham, has been endorsed by Empower Texans, a group backing primary challenges against 14 Straus-allied incumbents in the state’s March 6 state House primaries.
Straus is the de facto leader of a group of House Republicans that political scientist Mark Jones defined as “centrist conservatives.” According to Jones, the Straus faction is facing a group of “movement conservatives,” including members of the Texas Freedom Caucus, in the 2018 primaries. Deep-pocketed donors and interest groups are lining up on both sides.
The two factions have butted heads over Straus’ leadership of the House, where he used his powers to block conservative priorities, including some supported by Abbott, from reaching the governor’s desk. They have also criticized the way Straus rose to power in 2009, as he and a small group of Republican allies joined with the Democratic minority to elect him speaker. Straus announced his retirement in October 2017, meaning the primary will likely decide which side holds power in 2019.
Although Abbott has not explicitly aligned himself with Straus’ enemies, his endorsement of Middleton was the second time he has endorsed a primary challenge of one of the speaker’s allies. Abbott also backed Susanna Dokupil over Sarah Davis in the District 134 primary. Davis and Faircloth opposed the governor on ethics legislation in 2017.
Other Texas news: The Texas Association of Realtors endorsed state Rep. Cindy Burkett, a Straus ally aiming to unseat state Sen. Bob Hall in the Senate District 2 primary. The Realtors and their associated PACS have supported Straus allies in the past and spent $44 million in the 2016 election cycle. Hall is a former state representative who opposed Straus during his time in the lower chamber. Empower Texans has endorsed Hall in the primary.
When primaries and sexual misconduct allegations mix…the Alaska edition
The knives are out for Alaska state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux (R). State Rep. Tammie Wilson (R) called on her fellow Republican to resign, saying that LeDoux, the chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, ignored a sexual harassment complaint against state Rep. Dean Westlake (D) in early 2017 and thus did not perform the duties required of the Rules chair. LeDoux said she would not resign and said that Wilson was politicizing sexual harassment.
Why go after your fellow Republican? Well LeDoux is no normal Republican. Along with state Reps. Louise Stutes (R) and Paul Seaton (R), LeDoux joined a coalition of Democrats and independents after the 2016 elections, swinging control of the state House to Democrats even though Republicans won 21 of the chamber’s 40 seats. The Democratic-led majority allowed LeDoux to become chairwoman of the Rules Committee in return.
Wilson’s statement is just one challenge facing LeDoux. In December, the state GOP tried to have her, Stutes, and Seaton removed from the Republican Party’s 2018 primary ballots. The Division of Elections rejected the request, but there is still plenty of time for mainline Republicans to find a way to boot the defectors before the Aug. 21 primaries.
Power Players
A weekly feature on influencers shaping the direction of the party.
Rebekah Mercer
Rebekah Mercer, a co-owner of the conservative network Breitbart News and member of President Donald Trump's transition team, released a statement earlier this month formally severing her ties with Breitbart executive chairman and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon.
"I support President Trump and the platform upon which he was elected," she said. "My family and I have not communicated with Steve Bannon in many months and have provided no financial support to his political agenda, nor do we support his recent actions and statements."
Mercer's statement was a response to the publication of excerpts from Michael Wolff’s book about the Trump White House that attributed comments critical of Trump's inner circle to Bannon.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 4 that Mercer and other members of the Breitbart board were also considering removing Bannon as executive chairman of the network. Bannon officially stepped down from the position Tuesday.
The loss of the Breitbart platform and support from donors like Mercer may dampen Bannon's influence on this year's GOP primaries, which had previously been shaping up as a battle between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's mainstream Republican picks and what NBC News described as Bannon's "small army of 'populist nationalist' congressional candidates.”
Farris and Dan Wilks
“The Wilks [brothers] are unique, it seems that many/most people who cash out take their windfall, disappear and enjoy the good life because they earned it. The Wilks evidently believe that God gave them the money and they are using it for His kingdom building.” -David Lane, Christian conservative organizer
Farris and Dan Wilks, who made an estimated $3.5 billion from the 2011 sale of a fracking equipment manufacturing company, were described as "the Koch brothers of the Christian right" in a 2016 San Antonio Express-News profile. They gained notice in 2015 for a $15 million contribution to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) 2016 bid for the White House, but much of their political giving has been closer to home.
Transparency Texas reports that Farris Wilks and wife Jo Ann were the top donors in the state in 2016, giving close to $2.5 million. The bulk of that money went to the political action committees associated with three organizations: the fiscal responsibility nonprofit Empower Texans, the anti-abortion group Texas Right to Life, and the homeschooling group Texas Home School Coalition Association.
They also invested in conservative candidates for the state House, such as Reps. Matt Rinaldi, Jonathan Stickland, Tony Tinderholt, Bill Zedler, and Jeff Leach. Dan Wilks and wife Staci posted smaller totals in 2016 but backed a similar roster of candidates.
The Wilks are donating to conservative House candidates again this year. That's an added edge for conservatives in a primary election cycle that's already brought them good news. A rift in the Texas House between moderates and conservatives has lead to a number of primary challenges.
