Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 20 (June 4, 2018)
This week: Previewing the June 5 primaries.Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: June 5 (Hawaii, Minnesota, Massachusetts), June 12 (Connecticut)
Passed filing deadlines: 43
Upcoming elections: June 5 (Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,189 Democrats, 973 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“A Democratic recapture of the House, and perhaps the Senate, is not written in stone, sand, or anything else. That Democratic dream looks more elusive by the day. Indeed, rather than a giant blue wave (which may become a ripple), Republicans’ biggest risk is a pool of their own pessimism. Sinking into it could make defeat a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
- Deroy Murdock, National Review, May 25, 2018
"If the tariffs go into effect, the result could be a slowing economy in the months prior to the midterm elections. This could give Democrats a desperately needed issue with which to attack Republicans. If trade becomes an issue in the election with Democrats embracing free trade and Republicans defending big government tariffs, politics will have officially turned upside-down."
- David Thornton, The Resurgent, May 31, 2018
June 5 primary preview
Alabama
Vacancies in the state’s top political jobs have become common in recent years. The governorship, the attorney general’s office, and the top spot on the state Supreme Court all have new incumbents appointed to serve out terms of those originally elected to office. All of them face primary challengers Tuesday.
In the state’s 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Martha Roby, faces four Republican challengers who argue she has been insufficiently supportive of the president.
Due to the strong Republican leanings of all these seats, the winners of the primaries are very likely to win in November. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote on June 5, the top two vote-getters advance to a July 17 runoff election.
Governor
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) faces three challengers, including Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R) and preacher Scott Dawson (R) in her run for a full term.
Ivey has raised nearly twice as much as Battle, her closest rival, and has endorsements from the National Rifle Association and 45 state legislators.
Attorney General
Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) faces stiff opposition in his bid for a full term, with challenges from former prosecutor Alice Martin, Trump Alabama campaign chairman Chess Bedsole, and former Attorney General Troy King.
Business groups, the National Rifle Association, and the Republican Attorneys General Association back Marshall.
Martin has the support of the Alabama Legislative Watchdogs and Alabama Republican Assembly.
Supreme Court Chief Justice
Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Lyn Stuart (R) faces a challenge from Associate Justice Tom Parker (R).
The Alabama Retail Association and seven current and former members of the court support Stuart, who was named chief justice following Roy Moore’s (R) suspension in 2016. Stuart is running on her legal experience and stewardship of the justice system since taking over from Moore.
Parker, a Moore ally, promises a more combative approach, pointing to his legal battles with groups such as the Southern Poverty Law Center that "courts are the battleground for our God-given rights as free people."
California
The defining feature of California's primary elections is the top-two system, in which all candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the November election. Under this system, two candidates of the same party can advance, locking the other party out.
National attention is focused on seven GOP-held House districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
California Republicans are hoping to avoid a lockout in the gubernatorial race that could damage voter turnout in November.
The president is a factor in all of California’s races. Trump won 31.6 percent of the vote in California in 2016, less than any Republican candidate since 1856. His weakness has driven some GOP candidates to distance themselves from Trump. Gubernatorial candidate John Cox (R) emphasized he is "not the same kind of person” as the president after Trump endorsed him.
Both leading GOP gubernatorial candidates have supported repealing the state’s gas tax.
Governor
Political strategists consider Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) a favorite to take first place in the gubernatorial primary, setting up a contest for the second spot on the November ballot.
Businessman John Cox (R) leads the Republican field, and has the president’s endorsement. Cox told the New York Times his opposition to sanctuary cities and the state gas tax will help him win swing voters in the primary.
Assemblyman Travis Allen (R) believes "all we need to do is turn out the Trump voters" in order to make it to the next round. Like Cox, Allen has campaigned against the gas tax, supporting a referendum for its repeal.
Cox and Allen's most significant threat in the race for second is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), who is campaigning in areas such as the Central Valley which have tended to back Republican candidates in recent elections.
U.S. Senate
Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) faces 31 challengers in the Senate primary. State Sen. Kevin de Léon (D) is fighting for the second spot, but Republican Patrick Little or another Democrat may win given the large field.
CA-39
This is one of the contests where Democrats are worried about a lockout. Former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) is expected to finish in first place, leaving 16 other candidates contending for the second ballot slot.
Republican candidates Bob Huff and Shawn Moody are viewed as potential contenders for the second spot, prompting the DCCC to campaign against both of them. The House Majority PAC has taken a different tack, spending $1.95 million in support of Republican Phil Liberatore in hopes of dividing the remaining GOP vote between Huff, Moody, and Liberatore.
Four of the six Democratic candidates have received significant national backing. The DCCC is backing Gil Cisneros (D), while the progressive group Our Revolution supports Andy Thorburn (D).
CA-48
If Democrats are going to be locked out anywhere Tuesday, observers say it will happen in the 48th District.
Incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) faces a challenge from Scott Baugh (R), a former Orange County GOP chairman.
To stop Baugh from taking second place, the DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent $2.93 million running negative ads targeting both Rohrabacher and Baugh.
Democrats have tried to consolidate behind the strongest candidates. The effort convinced three Democrats to drop out. The DCCC is backing Harley Rouda and the state party has endorsed Hans Keirstead.
Republicans strategists are working to boost the chances of a Democratic lock out with national groups backing Baugh's candidacy. One Republican candidate, Stelian Onufrei, withdrew and endorsed Baugh.
CA-49
Another potential lockout looms for Democrats in the race for retiring Rep. Darrell Issa's (R) seat. Sixteen candidates are running, including four Democrats and eight Republicans.
Party leaders and national groups are behind all four Democrats, though none of them was able to win the state party’s endorsement at its February convention. Three of the Republican candidates have also picked up support.
The House Majority PAC and DCCC have spent $1.29 million to oppose Rocky Chavez (R).
CA-10
In California’s 10th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) faces six challengers and the prospect of an election rematch from farm manager Michael Eggman (D) is challenging Denham for the third time.
CA-25
Incumbent Rep. Steve Knight is the sole Republican in the race for California’s 25th, a district Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Bryan Caforio (D), who lost to Knight by 6 percentage points in 2016, is challenging him again. Caforio and nonprofit executive Katie Hill have emerged as Democratic frontrunners in the race, with each having earned endorsements from numerous progressive groups.
CA-45
Incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters is the only Republican running for California’s 45th District. The race for second place is a three-way battle between Democratic tech entrepreneur Brian Forde and UC Irvine law professors Dave Min, the state party’s choice, and Katie Porter, who is backed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
CA-50
In California's 50th Congressional District, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) faces well-financed primary challenges from both parties.
Small-business owner Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) and former Navy SEAL Josh Butner (D) are challenging Hunter from the left. Campa-Najjar leads all candidates in fundraising, including Hunter, and has the state party’s endorsement. Butner has gained support from national figures, including the PACs of House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Caucus Chairman Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.).
Republicans Shamus Sayed and Bill Wells are also running.
State legislature
In California’s state legislative primaries, several Republican challenges are rooted in disagreements over how the party should position itself in a blue state.
At the center of the fight is former Assembly Minority Leader Chad Mayes (R), who faces two Republican challengers. Mayes was ousted as minority leader in August 2017 after he and six other Republicans voted for Democrat-sponsored cap-and-trade legislation.
In early 2018, Mayes started New Way California, a moderate Republican organization focused on rebranding the state party. Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) support the new group’s efforts.
Montana
Ballotpedia discussed the state’s GOP Senate primary with Dr. Jeremy Johnson, a political scientist at Carroll College in Helena. The candidates are State Auditor Matt Rosendale, former state judge Russ Fagg, businessman Troy Downing, and state Sen. Al Olszewski.
How are the candidates positioning themselves ahead of the primary?
Johnson: Rosendale is trying to position himself as a right leaning candidate and has secured a range of national support. He's probably the most socially conservative of the field and endorsed by Steve Bannon. He also has attracted support from the Club for Growth and other outside groups who have infused his campaign with large sums of cash.
Fagg is also conservative and has also received the support of many of the long-time Republicans office-holders in Montana. While all the candidates support Trump, Fagg is the most willing to stake some independence, suggesting if Trump supports something that is bad for Montana, such as certain agricultural tariffs, Fagg will let Trump know he disagrees.
Downing is trying establish himself as an outsider and supports Trump the most on issues such as trade.
Olszewski is another conservative with experience in the state legislature and experience in health care with a background as a medical director. However, has not been able to get his message out forcefully.
What narratives have defined the race?
Johnson: Over the last several weeks Rosendale and Fagg have waged an increasingly bitter campaign against each other...Although there is an opportunity for Downing or Olszewski to make a move upwards as the two frontrunners decimate each other, it is questionable whether either campaign has enough of an infrastructure to take advantage of the situation.
How does this primary relate to the wider struggle inside the Republican Party?
Johnson: Not as much as some might think. They're all conservative and they all support Trump with meaningful policy differences among the candidates rather small. Stylistically, Fagg comes off as more pragmatic than Rosendale. However, the candidates don't neatly breakdown into traditional classifications such as a “tea party candidate,” “establishment candidate,” etc.
New Jersey
NJ-02
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Steve Stivers called New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District a “recruiting hole” for Republicans, before clarifying in last month that he believed engineer Hirsh Singh (R) was an impressive candidate.
Singh won Atlantic County's party line—which comprises 40 percent of the district—but three other candidates in the race have also nabbed at least one party line each.
NJ-05
In the 5th District Republican primary, candidates Steve Lonegan (R) and John McCann (R) have launched a number of personal attacks against each other. The two are vying to take on incumbent Rep. Josh Gottheimer, the only New Jersey Democrat holding a seat Trump won in 2016.
The general election was originally projected to be competitive, but, in recent weeks, forecasters have moved it into the “Likely Democratic” column.
New Mexico
U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is running unopposed in New Mexico’s Republican gubernatorial primary, but there is a three-way GOP battle to replace him in the 2nd Congressional District between state Rep. Yvette Herrell, former state GOP Chairman Monty Newman, and former Trump Interior Department official Gavin Clarkson.
The House Freedom Caucus, NRA, and the state Republican Party endorsed Herrell. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed Newman, who has raised the most money. Clarkson lacks notable endorsements, but has raised more than $150,000 and touted his ties to the president.
South Dakota
The state’s hotly contested GOP primaries for governor and the at-large U.S. House seat have taken on added importance because Republicans are projected to win both general elections.
Governor
Rep. Kristi Noem and state Attorney General Marty Jackley are vying to replace Gov. Dennis Daugaard. Jackley has run as the South Dakota candidate and emphasized Noem’s ties to Washington, D.C. Noem has touted her experience in government and support for the president.
Polls have shown a tight race, with the candidates often separated by just 1 percentage point.
U.S. House
The race to replace Noem in South Dakota’s sole U.S. House seat has gotten contentious in the campaign’s final days. The centrist group No Labels attacked Secretary of State Shantel Krebs, who is aligned with Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), in an apparent attempt to boost the more moderate Dusty Johnson. Read more about No Labels in Power Players.
Special guest analysis: Minnesota state conventions
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Minnesota's state party conventions. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
The two major Minnesota parties held their state conventions this weekend, and each made controversial non-binding endorsements for governor in advance of the August state primary. As expected, 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jeff Johnson (he lost) was endorsed again, but he will face former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty, who did not seek endorsement, in the primary. Unexpectedly, early Democratic (DFL) favorite, retiring Congressman Tim Walz, was upset for party endorsement by DFL State Representative Erin Murphy who ran to Walz's left. Both endorsees face possible defeat by their better-known challengers in the primary, as both party organizations face popular decline.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What is your favorite book? Why?
"I really enjoyed “A Canticle for Leibowitz” by Walter M. Miller, Jr. In high school I remember loving “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas” by Hunter S. Thompson and “Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test” by Tom Wolfe mostly due to their New Journalism style. Today, I read ever night, primarily Wikipedia and non-fiction books. I recently read “Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli Pirates: The Forgotten War That Changed American History” by Brian Kilmeade which I thought was great. I learned about a history I never knew and what was meant in the Marines' Hymn—“the shore of Tripoli.” I love history books. By learning from the lessons of the past you can best shape the future."
- David Fennell, candidate for Lieutenant Governor of California
Read all of David Fennell's responses →
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
No Labels
“The far right and far left are holding America hostage—becoming ever more strident, uncompromising and making governance impossible.” - No Labels website
The Washington, D.C. nonprofit No Labels is putting money behind its mission to elect lawmakers who will work across the aisle.
Formed in 2010, some of the biggest donors to the group’s affiliated super PACs -- Citizens For A Strong America, United for Progress, and United Together -- are former Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig and Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
Through the super PACs, the group supports candidates in Democratic and Republican U.S. House primaries who might join the Problem Solvers Caucus.
Citizens for a Strong America has spent about $300,000 opposing Shantel Krebs in the Republican primary for South Dakota’s at-large U.S. House seat. Krebs aligned herself with the president and his immigration agenda, while her opponent, Dusty Johnson, says he would focus on addressing government dysfunction. Johnson said he met with No Labels but did not commit to joining any House caucus.
No Labels affiliated groups also supported the more moderate candidates in the GOP primary for Texas’ 21st District and the Democratic primaries for Illinois’ 3rd, New Mexico’s 1st, and Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional Districts.
While No Labels says it doesn’t require its members to identify as centrists or moderates, it believes “true leaders must be willing to come to the center when that’s what it takes to push back on the extremes and push forward ideas that make the American people’s lives better.”
What we’re reading
- Can the California GOP Stop Its 'Death Spiral'? (Governing)
- Iowa’s Employment Problem: Too Many Jobs, Not Enough People (Wall Street Journal)
- An Ohio legislator defied FirstEnergy lobbyists. Then a ‘dark money’ group helped sink her bid for Congress (Center for Public Integrity)
- Republicans Poised to Gain Senate Seats in 2018 (Townhall)
