Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 22 (June 18, 2018)
This week: Stewart’s Virginia win generates controversy, Warren picks up endorsements in South Carolina, and the primaries have been a little kinder to incumbent legislators so far this year. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: June 27 (Rhode Island)
Passed filing deadlines: 48
Upcoming elections: June 19 (Washington, D.C.), June 26 (Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Utah)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,192 Democrats, 992 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“President Trump flexed his political muscle and proved he has the power to sway Republican voters Tuesday when his last-minute attack on U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C., helped defeat the former governor – a frequent critic of the president – in Sanford’s primary for re-election to the House.
- Peter Roff, Fox News, June 13, 2018
“In many respects, Sanford was caught flat-footed by his challenger. Arrington came out swinging with pro-Trump ads. Sanford then had to go on the defensive to counter punch.
Keep in mind that the president didn’t tweet support for Arrington until late in the day yesterday. By that point, people were either engaged in the Sanford-Arrington tilt or they weren’t. The die was cast.
So, the president wields leverage in South Carolina. That tells us a lot about primaries. But not the midterm in the fall.”
- Chad Pergram, Fox News, June 15, 2018
U.S. Congress
NRSC to stay out U.S. Senate race in Virginia after Stewart’s win
Republican Party leaders split on whether to support Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart in November after he won Virginia’s Republican Senate primary Tuesday.
National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) said the NRSC did not plan to endorse Stewart. "We have a big map, right now we are focused on Florida, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana. I don’t see Virginia in it,” he said.
While President Donald Trump (R) congratulated Stewart, saying his chances of defeating U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in the general election should not be underestimated, the two have a complicated history. The Trump campaign fired Stewart as its Virginia co-chairman in October 2016 after Stewart staged what the campaign called a “stunt” in front of Republican National Committee headquarters.
Some Republicans criticized Stewart during the primary for his rhetoric and his connections with Paul Nehlen and Jason Kessler, both of whom have made statements supporting white supremacy. Stewart said he ended those connections after learning about the remarks.
Senators Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) spoke negatively of Stewart's win. Flake said he would not support Stewart and could possibly endorse Kaine.
Americans for Prosperity, which supported state Del. Nick Freitas in the primary, released a statement saying it would not endorse Kaine or Stewart in the general election.
Grimm says Donovan sought presidential pardon in exchange for passing on NY-11 race
During a debate for New York’s 11th Congressional District Monday, former Rep. Michael Grimm (R) said incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R) sought a presidential pardon for Grimm’s 2015 felony tax evasion conviction in exchange for Grimm not entering the race.
Donovan said he had spoken with the president at the request of former Rep. Guy Molinari (R)—who later endorsed Grimm in the race.
Both candidates have sought to define themselves as the true Trump candidate. Grimm has the support of former administration officials Steve Bannon and Anthony Scaramucci, while Donovan has been endorsed by President Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Special guest analysis: Trump returns to Minnesota
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Minnesota Congressional primaries. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
President Donald Trump will return to Minnesota, a state he almost won, when he comes to Duluth next week. He will be campaigning for likely Republican nominee Pete Stauber, who is rated the favorite to win the open 8th Congressional District seat now held by Democrat (DFL) Congressman Rick Nolan who is retiring.
Traditionally a heavily DFL district, President Trump carried the district by double digits in 2016. The popular Nolan has no natural successor, and four relatively unknown DFL candidates are competing in the upcoming August primary for their party nomination. This race is thought to be the most likely GOP congressional seat pick-up in the nation with Stauber, a strong supporter of the president, turning out so far to be a tireless campaigner.
A late, possibly complicating development was the last-minute entrance into the governor’s race by the state’s attorney general, Lori Swanson. She chose Nolan as her lieutenant governor running mate, and should they win the August primary, Nolan will appear on the statewide November ballot, including in the 8th district.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What is your favorite thing in your home or apartment? Why?
“My favorite thing is my library. I chose not to be an avid reader till much later than I should have. I always read to my children, and now to my Grandchildren. I've taught them books are full of knowledge, and reading is the way to get the knowledge from the books to our brains. Reading is an amazing activity where we can experience someone else's life, their dreams, their sadness, and their celebrations. My library is full of life stories, history, action, advice, and yes, even pictures!”
- David Wilson, candidate for Maryland’s 15th state Senate district
Read all of David Wilson’s responses →
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State executives
Warren picks up endorsements ahead of runoff
South Carolina gubernatorial candidate John Warren (R) was endorsed by two former primary opponents in advance of the June 26 runoff with Gov. Henry McMaster (R) for the GOP nomination.
Former state Labor Commissioner Catherine Templeton (R) and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant (R) endorsed Warren at a joint appearance Thursday. The fifth primary candidate, former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill (R), has not yet announced an endorsement.
McMaster took office in January 2017 following Nikki Haley's (R) resignation to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. He touts the state's economic performance since he took office as well as his endorsements from President Trump and the National Rifle Association.
Warren, a businessman and political newcomer, emphasizes his background and private sector experience.
The June 26 runoff is open to all registered voters except those that participated in the Democratic primary June 12.
Lawsuit challenges Bennett's eligibility
Former Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R) faces a lawsuit over the validity of his nomination petitions.
Attorney Kory Langhofer’s lawsuit alleges at least 1,316 of the 7,833 signatures Bennett submitted Bennett are invalid, leaving him short of the 6,223-signature requirement. The suit also alleges the petitions included 236 signatures which do not match voters' signatures on file and 10 signatures which appear to be duplicates.
A hearing on the challenge has not been set.
Bennett is challenging incumbent Doug Ducey (R) in the Aug. 28 Republican primary.
Arizona gubernatorial candidates must submit signatures of at least 0.25 percent of registered voters who do not belong to another major party.
Ducey and Bennett are the only two candidates in the Aug. 28 primary, which is open only to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington*** and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 6.0 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 38.8 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 3.2 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 16.5 percent.
*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries
GOP incumbent primary losses are down, but retirements are up
The 2018 primary season has been slightly kinder to incumbents this year compared to previous election cycles. In the 22 states that have held primaries so far, 38 GOP legislative incumbents have been defeated -- less than the 39 incumbents who have lost at this point in 2016, and the 47 incumbents defeated at this stage in 2014.*
Runoffs in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina later this summer may add to the 2018 total.
However, the number of GOP incumbents retiring has increased 40 percent compared to 2016, creating more open Republican primaries and potential pickups for Democrats in November.
*Alabama held elections in 2018 and 2014, but not 2016.
Checking in on the Republican factions in Kansas
Competing Republican factions in the Kansas state House could face off over fiscal policy in the 2018 primaries.
House Republicans are divided between supporters and opponents of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s 2012 (R) tax cuts.
Nineteen Republican representatives face primary challengers -- 12 anti-Brownback, five pro-Brownback, and two unaffiliated. Fourteen representatives also retired, including seven Pro-Brownback and six anti-Brownback.
Facing an $887 million budget deficit and a state Supreme Court ruling that education spending was unconstitutionally low, anti-Brownback Republicans and Democrats successfully worked together in the 2017 legislative session to roll back the tax cuts. Pro-Brownback Republicans argued such a move would hurt the economy.
The state Senate has a similar ideological divide but elections for that body do not occur until 2020.
Democrat running as Republican for Missouri Senate drops out
Buchanan County Assessor Scot Van Meter (D) withdrew from the Republican primary for Missouri state Senate District 34 after the local Republican committee filed a lawsuit to remove him from the ballot.
Van Meter’s withdrawal leaves Republicans Tony Luetkemeyer and Harry Roberts seeking the nomination for the seat of term-limited state Sen. Rob Schaaf (R).
In March, Schaaf tweeted, “Running a democrat from Buchanan as a republican for my seat in order to split the vote and advantage the machine’s candidate Luetkemeyer shows their desperation and total lack of honor.”
Roberts said Van Meter’s candidacy was an example of “dirty politics” designed to benefit Luetkemeyer.
Luetkemeyer, an ally of former Gov. Eric Greitens (R), said he was happy Van Meter left the race and “I hope my opponent can finally focus on the issues rather than obsessing over who is running.”
Van Meter said his run as a Republican was genuine.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party. Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci is backing Michael Grimm in his bid to reclaim the 11th Congressional District seat and oust the man who replaced him -- Rep. Dan Donovan (R).
Donovan won a special election for the Staten Island-based seat in 2015 after Grimm pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion and went to prison.
Scaramucci recently spoke at a fundraiser for Grimm. His endorsement joined that of another former Trump administration official, Steve Bannon. Trump, however, endorsed Donovan May 30.
Scaramucci also backed state Rep. Christina Hagan in the primary for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. She lost the election to Anthony Gonzalez, who was supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
What we're reading
- In SC Primary, Ardent Trump Backer Defeats Rep. Mark Sanford Newsmax
- Republican primary update: Conservatives are still losing Conservative Review
- Trump referendum: Virginia primary winners tap into division over president Washington Times
- Biden: Democrats ‘Better Run Scared’ in Midterm Races National Review
