Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 23 (June 25, 2018)
This week: previewing the June 26 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: June 27 (Rhode Island)
Passed filing deadlines: 48
Upcoming elections: June 26 (Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Utah)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,178 Democrats, 996 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
"A lot of people in the White House subscribe to this view that as long as immigration is an issue, they win. And they're right when the issue is about MS-13 and that kind of stuff, which is why they're trying to turn it into MS-13. But these little kids, they're not even MS-3. They're little kids."
- Jonah Goldberg, Fox News, June 20, 2018
“Despite President Trump signing an executive order allowing adults to be detained with children after crossing into the United States illegally, the outrage over his administration simply enforcing the law continues.
But according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports, the majority of voters are holding illegal aliens accountable for the current separation crisis, not Border Patrol, Immigration and Customs Enforcement or President Trump.”
- Katie Pavlich, Town Hall, June 22, 2018
New York
Donovan faces former incumbent Grimm in NY-11
U.S. Rep. Dan Donovan (R) faces a primary challenge from the man he replaced in 2015, former incumbent Michael Grimm (R).
Republican leaders worry a Democrat would beat Grimm, who pleaded guilty to tax evasion in 2014, in November. President Trump and House Speaker Ryan have endorsed Donovan, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and America First Action have spent more than $1 million on Donovan’s behalf.
Grimm has tied himself to the president and criticized Donovan for voting against the 2017 tax bill and Affordable Care Act replacement. He led Donovan 47 percent to 37 percent in the primary’s only public poll, taken before Trump endorsed Donovan May 30. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points. Both candidates’ internal polls have shown them in the lead.
Colorado
Four Republicans seek gubernatorial nomination
Four Republicans are vying for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the June 26 primary.
State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) leads in both fundraising and polling. Stapleton opposes a single-payer health care system and in 2013 fought Colorado Amendment 66, which would have increased the state income tax to provide additional funds for school districts.
Former state Rep. Victor Mitchell (R) loaned $3 million to his own campaign and has refused to accept contributions from interest groups or endorsements. Mitchell has emphasized his business career and his 2011 opposition to Proposition 103, a ballot measure that would have increased the state's income and sales tax rates. He has called for a reduction in the scope of the state Department of Transportation.
Businessman Doug Robinson (R) is running on a platform of infrastructure spending, opposition to sanctuary cities, and increased regulation for the state’s marijuana industry.
Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R) is calling for the state Republican Party to focus on winning support from Latino voters. Lopez supports changing management procedures for the state's public pension fund, increasing infrastructure spending, and increasing access to vouchers.
Incumbent Lamborn (R) back on ballot after earlier removal; faces four challengers
Incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) faces four challengers in the 5th Congressional District GOP primary.
The Colorado Supreme Court initially blocked Lamborn’s bid in April after district voters filed a lawsuit alleging he hired non-residents to collect his nominating petition signatures. U.S. District Judge Philip Brimmer overturned that decision, putting Lamborn back on the ballot.
The NRA, The Gazette, and the National Federation of Independent Business back Lamborn, who supports fully funding the military, using American energy sources, replacing the Affordable Care Act, and protecting the Second Amendment.
Attorney and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, the GOP’s 2016 U.S. Senate nominee, wants to repeal and replace Obamacare, secure the country’s borders, and cut federal spending.
Legislators face challengers in safe Republican districts
Three incumbent Republican state legislators are face competitive primary challenges. Conservative state Sen. Ray Scott and state Rep. Philip Covarrubias both face centrist challengers.
State Rep. Dan Thurlow is challenging Scott, while Covarrubias has a rematch with his 2016 challenger, Rod Bockenfield.
State Rep. Judy Reyher faces Don Bendell in Tuesday’s primary. Reyher was appointed to the seat six months ago but has faced criticism from fellow Republicans for her negative remarks about blacks and Muslims on social media.
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Oklahoma
Cornett, Lamb, and Stitt running for GOP gubernatorial nomination
Term-limited Gov. Mary Fallin’s (R) exit from the safe GOP seat has sparked a scramble among Republicans, with 10 candidates running for the gubernatorial nomination.
The three most widely known and best funded candidates are Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett (R), Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb (R), and mortgage industry executive Kevin Stitt (R).
During an April debate, Cornett approved of Fallin's $474 million tax package to fund teacher raises, while Lamb and Stitt said they would have reduced waste before raising taxes.
If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held Aug. 28.
Republican factions face off in OK-1
The House Freedom Caucus, the Republican Main Street Partnership, and the GOP’s libertarian wing are all backing different candidates in the Republican primary for the seat of former Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R), a Freedom Caucus member who resigned to become the head of NASA.
The Freedom Caucus and Bridenstine’s father, Wayne, have endorsed former military intelligence officer Andy Coleman. The Club for Growth and the With Honor Fund have spent about $500,000 supporting Coleman.
The Main Street Partnership endorsed businessman Kevin Hern, who contributed $700,000 to his own campaign.
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R), FreedomWorks, and the NRA back the libertarian-leaning candidate, state Sen. Nathan Dahm.
Former Tulsa County district attorney Tim Harris is running as the local candidate and, thanks to a $100,000 personal loan, trails only Hern in fundraising.
If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held Aug. 28.
Educators running in state legislative primaries after April statewide strike
Just two months after a teacher strike closed schools across Oklahoma, public school educators are running in at least three GOP state legislative primaries.
In House Districts 41 and 82, the teachers are running in crowded Republican fields to replace term-limited incumbents. In House District 81, a middle school librarian is challenging an incumbent.
Teacher walkouts over education funding have occurred in Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and West Virginia
In response to the Oklahoma strike, the state raised taxes give teachers pay raises and an increase in education funding. It was the state’s first tax increase in 25 years.
In the May 22 Kentucky state House primaries, teacher Travis Brenda (R) defeated majority leader Jonathan Shell (R) after criticizing Shell’s support for cutting teacher pensions.
South Carolina
Trump-backed Gov. McMaster in a runoff with businessman Warren
Incumbent Henry McMaster (R) finished first in the June 12 primary, but failed to win a majority, leading to a runoff against second-place finisher John Warren (R).
Warren, a businessman who has contributed $3 million to his campaign, is making his first run for elected office. After the primary, third- and fourth-place finishers Catherine Templeton (R) and Kevin Bryant (R) endorsed Warren. Together, the three received a greater share of the vote than McMaster. Since the primary, Warren also won endorsements from Rep. Ralph Norman (R) and the top six finishers in the 4th Congressional District primary.
President Trump endorsed McMaster and will appear with him at an election day rally. McMaster is running on the state's economic performance since he took office in addition to the president's endorsement.
Freedom Caucus and Marco Rubio back opposing candidates SC-04
Former state Sen. Lee Bright (R) and state Sen. William Timmons (R) face each other in Tuesday’s runoff for the 4th Congressional District GOP nomination.
Bright is running a Trump-style campaign and intends to join the Freedom Caucus if elected. He has picked up endorsements from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and the Club for Growth, which launched a $230,000 media campaign targeting Timmons. Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) also back Bright.
The Conservative Leadership Alliance is spending $266,000 on a media supporting Timmons, who is also supported by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).
Utah
Romney and Kennedy compete for Senate nomination
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney faces state Rep. Mike Kennedy (R) in the GOP Senate primary.
Retiring incumbent Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) said in March 2017 that Romney would be perfect to replace him. President Trump endorsed Romney in February despite Romney’s opposition to Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
Kennedy has the support of retired Gen. Robert C. Oaks and state Rep. Cory Maloy (R).
In a May 29 debate, Kennedy said Romney had called Trump a “phony” and a “fraud” during the 2016 presidential election. Romney said he has known Trump “for a long, long time and the president has endorsed me in this campaign — which shows he respects people who call ‘em like they see ‘em.”
Special guest analysis: Primary rules matter
Rob Richie is the President and CEO of Fairvote. We invited him to summarize the voting rules in play in upcoming primaries.
The June 26 primaries showcase how state rules can affect outcomes:
- In Mississippi and Oklahoma, nominees must earn a majority. Mississippi Democrats will pick a Senate nominee three weeks after the top finisher earned 32%. Oklahoma’s Republican gubernatorial primary will likely go to an August 28th runoff. Mississippi’s runoff is shorter because its overseas voters cast ranked choice voting ballots with their primary ballot; votes go to the runoff candidate ranked higher on each ballot.
- Most states don’t require majorities. In Colorado, crowded governor fields likely will mean low percentage wins, as also true in Democratic primaries in Maryland for governor and the sixth congressional district. This year 58 nominees for Congress, Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General earned less than 50%, including two under 25%.
- In Maine Janet Mills earned the Democratic nomination for governor in the modern era’s first ranked choice voting state primary. Mills went from 33% in the first round to an “instant runoff” win with 55%, earning more votes than any gubernatorial nominee in three decades. Mainers also kept RCV in place for primary and congressional elections.
- New York holds federal primaries tomorrow and state primaries in September. This unique division of primaries will mean lower turnout.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here. What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at that time?
"The oil crisis of 1979 I was about 10. It was my first experience learning about OPEC. My Dad would leave an article about the oil crisis on the table every morning with a note "there will be a quiz.” Every evening when he returned from work, we ate dinner together and he asked me about OPEC, the oil crisis and the prices of oil per barrel each day in the U.S. and another country."
- Bridgette Cooper, candidate for Maryland's 8th Congressional District
Read all of Bridgette Cooper's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
One Nation
The Mitch McConnell-linked group One Nation has been pouring millions of dollars into ads supporting candidates in two states’ primaries.
The Virginia-based group recently ran ads in Arizona supporting Rep. Martha McSally in her U.S. Senate bid, as well as Rep. David Schweikert’s re-election effort in Arizona’s 6th District.
According to AZCentral, the group spent $500,000 on the ads that praised both candidates’ work on securing the border.
In Missouri, the group has spent over $2 million on ads supporting Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley’s U.S. Senate bid. The group praised Hawley as a defender of personal privacy.
According to Politico, another McConnell-linked PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), is affiliated with One Nation. The SLF launched its first ad in Indiana at the same time as One Nation. One Nation’s website states it is dedicated to “helping to solve America’s great problems and seize America’s greater opportunities through persuasion, research and advocacy.”
What we're reading
- The Ellison Succession Powerline
- #SC2018: Former Donald Trump Staffers Rebuke John Warren FITSNews
- Utah Legislative races to watch in 2018 primary Deseret News
- Will Democrats Catch a November Wave? National Review
