Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 24 (July 16, 2018)

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Issue No. 24

This week: recapping top stories from 4+ months of primary elections. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: July 20 (Louisiana)
Passed filing deadlines: 50 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: July 17 (AL runoffs), July 24 (GA runoffs)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,192 Democrats, 1,028 Republicans

Republican pundits on the news

Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“This nomination may be a generational opportunity for Republicans, but their incipient defeat certainly provides a short-term opportunity for Democrats in their bid to hold Republicans to their current narrow majority in the Senate and take back the House. Much of what you see over the next 12 weeks will be pure theater staged for the purpose of taking an already electrified Democratic base into new ecstasies of outrage and indignation.”

- Chris Stirewalt, Fox News, July 10, 2018

“From where we stand today, the most important question of 2018 is whether energized Democrats will face dispirited and divided Republicans in the fall. A fight over the courts is just about the best possible thing for Republicans hoping instead that their side will feel its own sense of urgency in November.”

- Dan McLaughlin, National Review, July 3, 2018

Top primaries of the year

The five primary races below are on our list of top Republican primaries this year. We're recapping the best stories so far, and identifying themes and trends along the way.

1. Georgia GOP battle headlines competitive gubernatorial primaries

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp finished first and second, respectively, in the May 22 Republican gubernatorial primary and advanced to a July 24 runoff that’s been defined by personal attacks. Cagle has raised the most money and campaigned on his record. Kemp has emphasized his ties to rural Georgia and his positions on guns and immigration. Cagle has called Kemp incompetent, while Kemp has said Cagle is corrupt. Recent polls show a close race. The winner faces former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D). Other Republican gubernatorial primary runoffs:

• The Aug. 28 runoff in Oklahoma between Mick Cornett and Kevin Stitt
• The June 26 runoff in South Carolina where incumbent Henry McMaster beat John Warren

2. The Trump factor in Sanford’s primary defeat

State Rep. Katie Arrington defeated incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford (R), 51 percent to 46 percent, in South Carolina's 1st District GOP primary. Sanford, who hadn’t spent money on TV advertising in five years, didn’t appear on the airwaves until a final six-figure push at the close of the race. While Sanford remained quiet on the campaign trail, Arrington highlighted comments he made critical of Trump throughout the primary. Trump endorsed Arrington just hours before polls closed June 12. Incumbents defeated in 2018 primaries: Sanford is one of four congressional or state executive incumbents to lose a primary so far. The others:

• Mike Stack (D), Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania
• Rep. Robert Pittenger (R), North Carolina's 9th
• Rep. Joseph Crowley (D), New York’s 14th
• Eighty-five state legislators, including 37 Democrats and 48 Republicans.

Where else has Trump issued notable primary endorsements?

• Dan Donovan in New York's 11th District (won primary)
• Henry McMaster for South Carolina’s governorship (won primary)
• John Cox for California’s governorship (advanced from top-two primary)
• Jim Renacci for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat (won primary)
• Dean Heller for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat (won primary)
• Incumbent Matt Gaetz in Florida’s 1st District (primary on Aug. 28)

3. Money and animosity define West Virginia Senate race

The GOP Senate primary in West Virginia was an expensive and contentious three-way battle in a state with a vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Coal mining executive Don Blankenship (R) tried to use a similar formula against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (R). Blankenship self-funded his campaign, blanketing the airwaves with more than $1 million in ads saying he had been falsely prosecuted and convicted of a 2015 federal misdemeanor related to a fatal mine explosion. Morrisey won with 35 percent of the vote, but he may face Blankenship again in the general election, where Blankenship is attempting to run as the Constitution Party candidate.

Indiana's Senate primary also featured three candidates hoping to challenge a Democratic incumbent. Former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Reps. Luke Messer (R-Ind.) and Todd Rokita (R-Ind.). Braun spent more than $4 million of his own money on ads that painted his rivals as indistinguishable career politicians.

4. Cruz and Club for Growth push Rosendale to victory in Montana Senate primary

State auditor Matt Rosendale (R) beat three other Republicans for the chance to take on Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). Rosendale had help from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who said Rosendale would be his ally in the Senate. The Club for Growth spent over $1 million attacking one of Rosendale’s competitors, former state judge Russ Fagg. Other races where Cruz and the Club for Growth joined forces: open primary runoffs to replace retiring Republican incumbents in Texas’ 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 21st District primaries. The Cruz/Club-backed candidate won every primary except the 5th. The Club for Growth also backed Michael Cloud, the winner of the 27th District runoff.

5. Republican leadership and House Freedom Caucus clash in Ohio

State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) defeated businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) and seven other candidates in Ohio's 12th Congressional District GOP primary—one of the 15 races Ballotpedia has identified as proxy battles between Republican leadership and the House Freedom Caucus (HFC). Defending Main Street backed Balderson, spending $240,000 on ads supporting him. Leneghan earned endorsements from the HFC and its leadership, Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Races with HFC involvement: We've tracked results in contested primaries featuring candidates affiliated with the HFC. Our tally of the results so far:

• Candidates affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus: 7 primary wins
• Candidates not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus: 7 primary wins

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More top stories

State legislative competitiveness

5,385 state legislative seats are up for election across 43 states where filing deadlines have passed. Key numbers from Ballotpedia's competitiveness study:

• 512 incumbent Republican legislators seeking re-election (19.6 percent) will face or have faced a primary challenger this year.
• 682 seats—12.7 percent of all seats up for election—will automatically go to the Republican Party since no Democratic candidates filed. The three states with the highest proportion of seats guaranteed to Republicans are:
  • Wyoming (58.7 percent)
  • Idaho (42.9 percent)
  • Arkansas (42.4 percent)
• Seven statehouse chambers where at least one Republican candidate filed for every district:
  • House and Senate in Michigan
  • The Senate in Indiana, Maine, North Carolina, Utah, and West Virginia
• 641 incumbent Republicans have announced their retirement, accounting for 61.8 percent of all legislative retirements this year.

No Labels-linked groups backing candidates for Problem Solvers Caucus

Super PACs linked to the nonprofit No Labels are supporting Republican and Democratic House candidates who might join the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus if elected.

No Labels scored a victory June 5 when Dusty Johnson beat Shantel Krebs in the Republican primary for South Dakota’s sole U.S. House seat.

Other successful Republican candidates No Labels backed include:

• Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st
• Dan Meuser in Pennsylvania’s 9th
• Incumbent Lloyd Smucker in Pennsylvania’s 11th

Which 10 Republican House campaigns have reported the most contributions?

• Paul Ryan (Wisconsin’s 1st) raised $11.4 million (not seeking re-election)
• Kathaleen Wall (Texas’ 2nd) raised $6.2 million (defeated in her primary)
• Kevin McCarthy (California’s 23rd) raised $5.7 million
• Devin Nunes (California’s 22nd) raised $4.9 million
• Steve Scalise (Louisiana’s 1st) raised $4.2 million
• Kevin Brady (Texas’ 8th) raised $3.9 million
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Washington’s 5th) raised $3.7 million
• Greg Walden (Oregon’s 2nd) raised $3.7 million
• Peter Roskam (Illinois’ 6th) raised $3.4 million
• Mia Love (Utah’s 4th) raised $3.3 million

Special guest analysis: FairVote on plurality primary winners

Rob Richie is president and CEO and Ben Ratner is a summer research intern with FairVote. We invited them to share an update on plurality winners in the 2018 primary season.

Halfway through the 2018 primaries, a pattern has emerged: candidates are winning without majority support. The reason? Single-choice plurality elections, in which the candidate with the most votes wins even without earning a majority. Such outcomes are commonplace in primaries outside of Maine (where ranked choice voting avoided two plurality outcomes) and seven states with majority runoffs.

As of July 16, 70 candidates have won without a majority in primaries for Congress and governor. These winners advanced despite most voters in their primary backing other candidates. Idaho’s likely new governor Brad Little won the Republican gubernatorial primary with 37 percent of the vote. Tony Campbell won Maryland’s U.S. Senate primary with 29 percent.

This trend has larger implications. Of Republican congressional primary winners with less than 50 percent, seven are in “safe” districts where FairVote projects them to win in November in its Monopoly Politics report. These nominees effectively have won their district without earning a majority of their party vote.

Candidate	State-District	Winning % of Vote
Carol Miller	WV-3	23.80%
John Joyce	PA-13	21.90%
Russ Fulcher	ID-1	43.10%
Jim Baird	IN-4	36.60%
Dusty Johnson	SD-AL	46.80%
Troy Balderson	OH-12	28.70%
Yvette Herrell	NM-2	49.00%

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

Do you believe that it’s beneficial for senators to have previous experience in government or politics?

"I actually believe exactly the opposite. There should be no such thing as a career politician. The average length of service by CEO's in US businesses, based on their ability to remain effective, averages to about 10 years. We need the continuous infusion of new ideas and new approaches from new members of Congress to keep our government current, efficient, and effective. Not the business as usual from career politicians."

- Ron Curtis, candidate for United States Senate from Hawaii

Read all of Ron Curtis' responses →

Alabama runoff previews

Campaign finance regulations at issue in final week of attorney general primary

Campaign contributions from the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) are at the center of a legal dispute unfolding in the Republican runoff for Alabama attorney general.

Former Attorney General Troy King (R) filed an ethics complaint against incumbent Steve Marshall (R) Monday, alleging the contributions Marshall received from RAGA’s political action committee (PAC) were illegal since the RAGA PAC had received contributions from other PACs. State law prohibits PAC-to-PAC contributions.

The Marshall campaign, citing candidate filing materials provided by the secretary of state’s office, contended the restriction does not apply to federal PACs. King filed a lawsuit against Marshall Wednesday calling for an injunction on Marshall’s use of RAGA-contributed funds. The lawsuit was dismissed the following day.

Marshall is running for attorney general for the first time after being appointed to the post in February 2017. King was attorney general from 2004 until 2011 and finished 3,000 votes behind Marshall in the June 5 primary. The two will meet in a runoff July 17.

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

DefendArizona

The political action committee DefendArizona has reserved almost $5 million in TV ads to support Martha McSally in her Senate bid. McSally is running against former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and former state senator Kelli Ward and is leading in fundraising and polls.

DefendArizona’s treasurer, Benjamin Ottenhoff, is the former chief financial officer of the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. Ottenhoff was also part of an effort to defeat Don Blankenship in the West Virginia Senate primary.

DefendArizona spokesman Barrett Marson said McSally “deserved” the group’s “significant investment” to ensure GOP control of the Senate. "The future control of the U.S. Senate hinges on Arizona electing a consistent conservative who will vote to approve the right judges, secure our porous border and eliminate government waste," Marson said.

What we're reading

• In GOP primaries, Trump loyalty is a weapon against conservative insurgents Washington Post
• Defeated Kentucky Lawmaker Sues Republican Primary Opponent US News & World Report
• Ellis endorses Nye over incumbent Altman in GOP Florida House primary Florida Today
• Trump, McConnell, & conservatives must put the SCOTUS squeeze on Collins & Murkowski Conservative Review