Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 25 (July 23, 2018)
This week: Previewing Georgia’s gubernatorial runoff, Gosar snubs McSally, and gun groups split in Kansas governor race. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: 0
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: July 24 (GA runoffs), August 2 (Tennessee)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,181 Democrats, 1,025 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“We shall learn from Robert Mueller's investigation whether in 2016 there was collusion with Russia by members of the Trump campaign. The world, however, saw in Helsinki something more grave — ongoing collusion between Trump, now in power, and Russia. The collusion is in what Trump says (refusing to back America's intelligence agencies) and in what evidently went unsaid (such as: You ought to stop disrupting Ukraine, downing civilian airliners, attempting to assassinate people abroad using poisons, and so on, and on).”
- George Will, The Washington Post, July 17, 2018
“Spot on. Trump is saying: I am going to call off this Cold War II before it breaks out into the hot war nine U.S. presidents avoided, despite Soviet provocations far graver than Putin’s pilfering of DNC emails showing how Debbie Wasserman Schultz stuck it to Bernie Sanders. Then the White House suggested Vlad may be coming to dinner this fall.
Trump is edging toward the defining battle of his presidency: a reshaping of U.S. foreign policy to avoid clashes and conflicts with Russia, and the shedding of Cold War commitments no longer rooted in the national interests of this country.”
- Pat Buchanan, WND, July 19, 2018
Preview
Trump and Pence back Kemp in Georgia gubernatorial runoff
The July 24 Georgia gubernatorial runoff between Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp had a hectic final week. Two days after term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Cagle, President Donald Trump issued a surprise endorsement of Kemp on Twitter and Vice President Mike Pence appeared at a Kemp rally in Macon, Georgia.
An early July poll showed the race within the margin of error. But two polls taken around the time of Trump’s endorsement showed Kemp leading 55-37 and 40-34, respectively. Hunter Hill and Clay Tippins, who also ran in May 22 Republican primary, have also endorsed Kemp.
Cagle and Kemp have exchanged attacks on personal and professional ethics. Cagle says Kemp is incompetent and would lose the general election to Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams (D).
Kemp says Cagle is corrupt. In early June, Tippins released a secret recording in which Cagle said he helped pass a school choice bill in the 2018 legislative session because it kept a pro-school choice group from supporting Hill in the primary.
Cagle had raised $10.5 million to Kemp’s $4.5 million. Both candidates have super PACs supporting them: Changing Georgia’s Future for Cagle and A Better Georgia PAC for Kemp.
Shafer faces Duncan in lieutenant governor runoff
State Sen. David Shafer (R) and state Rep. Geoff Duncan (R) are facing off in the lieutenant gubernatorial primary runoff in Georgia. Gov. Nathan Deal (R) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) back Shafer, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has endorsed Duncan.
U.S. Congress
Blankenship collects signatures to file for WV Senate ballot, One Nation pulls ads
Former coal magnate Don Blankenship (R), who finished third in West Virginia’s GOP Senate primary has collected enough signatures to file to appear on the ballot as a Constitution Party candidate. If the signatures are validated, a legal battle is expected to determine whether Blankenship can run given the state’s “sore loser” law.
One Nation also halted its plan to spend $750,000 on ads criticizing the immigration policy of incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D). West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) trailed Manchin by seven to 13 points in recent polls.
Gosar snubs House colleague McSally, endorses Ward in Arizona Senate race
U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, endorsed former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) over his U.S. House colleague Martha McSally (R) in the Arizona GOP Senate primary.
Gosar said, "We cannot afford another establishment patsy who promises one thing and votes differently."
A McSally campaign representative said she “votes with the president 97 percent of the time while congressman Gosar only votes with the president 77 percent of the time. If he voted with the president as much as Martha, we could accomplish even more for Arizonans."
Ward also has endorsements from support from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa) and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.). Last week, conservative donor Robert Mercer donated $500,000 to KelliPAC. The group just made a $447,000 ad buy casting McSally as liberal and anti-Trump.
On McSally's side, the Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund ran an online anti-Ward ad campaign in 2017 and could become involved in the primary again to help McSally.
NRA endorses Vukmir in Wisconsin Senate race, Nicholson releases first ad
The National Rifle Association (NRA) endorsed state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) in Wisconsin’s GOP Senate primary, joining the Republican Party of Wisconsin and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).
While satellite groups like the Americas PAC, Club for Growth, and Restoration PAC have already spent millions on ads promoting Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson (R), his campaign released its first ad Wednesday.
Special guest analysis: On and on, Wisconsin
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Wisconsin primaries. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
The race for governor of Wisconsin goes on and on in volatility, but incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker has seen that his recent favorability poll, while still under 50 percent, has turned net favorable. The governor remains controversial, but he has a history of political survival and state-level conservative policy innovation, outflanking his Democratic and liberal opponents. With the August 14 Wisconsin primaries looming, the Democrats have 10 candidates vying for their party nomination, and none of them is clearly way out in front. The Democratic winner will then have only 10 weeks to consolidate liberal and independent voters behind his or her candidacy against the better known Walker.
In the other major Wisconsin statewide race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin remains the favorite despite her own favorability polls being net negative. A strong liberal vote in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Baldwin nevertheless broke with national Democratic leaders demanding elimination of ICE and federal border control, calling instead for more oversight of the organization—a stance intended to boost her image as bipartisan. Baldwin’s re-election is also enhanced by the absence yet of a Republican opponent. That will be decided in the Aug. 14 GOP primary between party-endorsed state Sen. Leah Vukmir and self proclaimed “outsider” conservative Kevin Nicholson. As in the challenge to Democrats in the Wisconsin governor’s race, the Republicans, following the primary, have only 10 weeks to unite their supporters against the well-known Baldwin.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
"1) Restoring constitutional principles in Government and restoring constitutional liberty to people and states and eliminating infringements that already are in place.
2) Reducing and if possible eliminating the federal debt, this is extremely dangerous for future generations.
3) Economic opportunity, both in general and in depressed parts of cities as well as rural areas."
- Aaron Pettigrew, candidate for U.S. Senator from Tennessee
Read all of Aaron Pettigrew's responses →
State executives
Firearms groups split on Kansas endorsements
The National Rifle Association and Gun Owners of America endorsed rival candidates for the GOP gubernatorial nomination Monday.
The NRA is backing Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), while the GOA endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), who is the only candidate besides Colyer to have received double-digit support in recent polls.
Following its Colyer endorsement, the NRA lowered Kobach's rating from an A+ to an A, matching Colyer’s rating.
Colyer and Kobach are among seven candidates in the Aug. 7 primary, which is open to registered Republicans and voters without a party affiliation.
Santorum endorses Black
Former Senator and two-time presidential candidate Rick Santorum (R) endorsed Rep. Diane Black (R) in her bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), who won a plurality of votes in Tennessee's 2008 primary, had previously endorsed Black's opponent Randy Boyd (R).
Black and Boyd are among four Republicans running in the Aug. 2 primary, which is open to all registered voters.
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In the 43 states where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 8.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 25.1 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has decreased 1.8 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 7.6 percent.
Educators competing in 11 Oklahoma state legislative primary runoffs Aug. 28
Educators are running in 11 of Oklahoma’s 26 GOP state legislative runoffs Aug. 28.
Three of the 11 are running against incumbents, while eight are running for open seats.
Education was a key issue in the June 26 primaries after the legislature voted to increase taxes in late March to prevent a teachers strike. The teachers went on strike anyway, saying the tax increase would not provide enough additional funding for pay raises and education funding.
Across the Democratic and Republican primaries, 112 educators filed to run and 71 either won or advanced to a runoff. In the Republican primaries, six incumbents were defeated and 10 were forced into runoffs.
Republican senator in Kansas faces backlash for endorsing in Democratic primaries
Kansas state Sen. Barbara Bollier (R) ignited an intraparty feud when she endorsed Tom Niermann (D) in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District and state Sen. Laura Kelly (D) for governor.
In response to her endorsements, Bollier was removed as vice chair of the Senate Health and Public Welfare Committee and Kansas GOP Executive Director Jim Joice said the party would try to oust her in the 2020 primaries.
“It’s always fun to find out you got fired from your job for exercising your First Amendment right,” Bollier said in response.
Bollier supports Medicaid expansion and voted to repeal Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) 2012 tax cuts due to concerns about the budget deficit and education funding.
Although the state Senate is not up until 2020, the state House is holding elections this November. The repeal of the Brownback tax cuts set up a clash in the Aug. 7 primaries between pro- and anti-tax cut Republican factions.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Changing Georgia's Future
Millions of dollars from campaigns and satellite spending groups have gone toward TV ads for and against Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidates Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who face off in a runoff election July 24. The pro-Cagle super PAC Changing Georgia's Future spent $1.1 million on ads between the May 22 primary and the runoff, including two attacking Kemp.
The chairperson of the PAC is Tom Willis, who served as special assistant and local government liaison to incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R).
The group received at least $700,000 from Citizens for Georgia's Future, a separate organization that spent $1.2 million on pro-Cagle during the primary.
Meanwhile, A Better Georgia PAC reserved $200,000 of air time to run anti-Cagle ads.
The Cagle campaign has so far spent $2 million on TV ads to Kemp's $1 million. The campaigns reported $9.2 million and $3.8 million, respectively, in total expenditures as of June 30.
What we're reading
- GOP mega-donors will help seal truce after Kevin Nicholson, Leah Vukmir Senate primary Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
- The Latest: NRA endorses Kansas Gov. Colyer in GOP primary Associated Press
- Helsinki summit becomes new flashpoint for GOP anger The Hill
- In GOP primaries, Trump loyalty is a weapon against conservative insurgents Washington Post
