Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 26 (July 30, 2018)
This week: Previews of the Tennessee primaries, plus a brewing primary fight in Kansas. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming elections: Aug. 2 (Tennessee), Aug. 7 (Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Kansas)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,176 Democrats, 1,018 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“The hard reality is that Trump’s policies are delivering for working Americans – with jobs growth luring those on the dole back into the labor force. And after all, a good job is the best social program.
There is a resiliency about Americans when the government gets out of the way. You can bank on that more than economists’ models. ”
-Peter Morici, Fox News, July 27, 2018
“Initial estimates suggest that U.S. GDP grew at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of 2018, an assuredly positive development that economists suggest should nevertheless be tempered by a recognition of the impact of a shifting domestic political environment.
The strong 4.1 percent estimate, released by The Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday, is largely the result of a one-time export surge fueled by firms eager to offload inventory before looming tariffs come into effect and foreign buyers equally happy to avert paying higher taxes on their purchases.”
-Jack Crowe, National Review, July 27, 2018
Tennessee primary previews
Three-way battle for governor in Tennessee
Rep. Diane Black (R) and businessmen Randy Boyd (R) and Bill Lee (R) are locked in a three-way battle for the Tennessee Republican gubernatorial nomination. They have traded the lead in recent polls and their respective campaign ads emphasize their conservative bona fides and support for the Trump administration.
Black’s endorsers include the National Rifle Association and former U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales (R). She has emphasized her position on abortion and public safety.
Boyd has endorsements from 50 of the state’s 95 county mayors. He promotes his business record and two advisory roles in Gov. Bill Haslam’s (R) administration.
Lee emphasizes job growth and rural development. He has referred to the death of his wife as a transformative moment in his life and has emphasized his status as a political outsider.
Also running is Tennessee State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R), who has endorsements from the Tennessee State Employees Association and the Tennessee Education Association.
Former gubernatorial candidate Basil Marceaux (R) and Kay White (R) round out the GOP field.
Freedom Caucus, Main Street, Cruz, and local name recognition in TN-02
Seven Republicans are running for the nomination in Tennessee’s safely Republican 2nd District.
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows and the retiring incumbent, John Duncan Jr., back state Rep. Jimmy Matlock (R), who has engaged in heated exchanges with Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett (R). Burchett is well-known in the district and has been called the front runner in the race.
Matlock called for a one-on-one debate with Burchette, a move that didn’t sit well with the rest of the GOP field which has benefitted from a flurry of new ads and endorsements raising their respective profiles.
The Republican Main Street Partnership recently endorsed U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Ashley Nickloes (R), whose service commitments limited her ability to campaign. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) announced Tuesday he is backing Young Republican National Federation Chairman Jason Emert (R) in the race.
Corlew and Matheny lead money race for open seat in TN-06, Matheny aligns with Freedom Caucus
Former judge Bob Corlew (R), state Rep. Judd Matheny (R), and former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose (R) are the leading contenders for the open 6th Congressional District seat. Incumbent Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.) is running for governor.
As of mid-July, Rose has raised $2.9 million, and Corlew $1.5 million.
Matheny represents Coffee County and part of Warren County in the state House. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) has endorsed him, and Matheny has aligned himself with the House Freedom Caucus.
This is one of several primaries nationwide where GOP factional conflict between the Freedom Caucus and House Republican leadership is on display.
Head-to-head rematch in TN-08
Incumbent Rep. David Kustoff (R) faces a rematch against self-funding radiologist and broadcaster George Flinn Jr. (R) in the 8th Congressional District primary.
In 2016, Kustoff defeated Flinn by 4 percentage points in a 13-candidate primary field.
Flinn has loaned his campaign more than $3 million and has spent $2.7 million on the race so far. His ads criticize Kustoff for supporting HR 1625, the omnibus spending bill, and for joining with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to fund Planned Parenthood.
Kustoff’s ads say Flinn's broadcasting company profited from Planned Parenthood and aired spots promoting the organization.
U.S. Congress
Steube’s military record scrutinized in FL-17
In the race for the open seat in Florida’s 17th Congressional District, Navy veteran Julio Gonzalez (R) and Army veteran Bill Akins (R) have joined forces to challenge state Sen. Greg Steube (R)'s identification as a combat veteran, saying he mischaracterized his service.
Gonzales and Akins participated in a rally protesting Steube’s involvement in a town hall with Concerned Veterans for America.
Gonzalez said Steube “described himself on numerous occasions, particularly during his last campaign against Doug Holder, as a combat veteran.”
Steube, who served in the U.S. Army JAG Corps and describes himself as an Operation Iraqi Freedom vet, said, "Anyone that served in Afghanistan, especially that conducted missions outside the wire, was always in harm’s way." He added, "I have never said that I have been awarded the combat action badge, or the combat infantry badge."
Retiring incumbent Rep. Tom Rooney (R) cautioned Gonzalez and Akins not to use a measuring stick for who was more of a veteran. He has yet to endorse in the race.
West Virginia secretary of state rejects Blankenship's Senate candidacy, Blankenship to challenge finding in court
West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) rejected coal magnate Don Blankenship's application to run as the Constitution Party candidate for U.S. Senate Thursday.
Since Blankenship ran in the Republican primary—he came in third with 20 percent support—Warner said he could not run again because a state’s sore loser law prohibits losing candidates in ballot-qualified primaries from participating in the general election with a different party.
A spokesman for Blankenship said the campaign planned to challenge the state and was deciding between Kanawha County Circuit Court or a federal court for the venue.
West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who won the Republican primary with 35 percent of the vote, has recused himself from the matter and retained outside counsel.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at that time?
“I can still picture me standing on the playground at school at the age of 8 and hearing that John F. Kennedy had been shot.”
-Michael Cortney, candidate for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Read all of Michael Cortney's responses →
State executives
Endorsements in Kansas governor’s race reflect Republican dispute over 2012 tax cuts
State Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Kan.) endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) over Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) in the Kansas governor’s race, breaking with state Senate Vice President Jeff Longbine (R), who backs Colyer.
The endorsements reflect an ongoing debate between supporters and opponents of former Gov. Sam Brownback's (R) 2012 tax cuts.
Kobach criticized the 2017 tax cut repeal, saying the Brownback administration, including Colyer, should have cut spending along with tax rates.
Colyer's campaign said he would consider signing new legislation to reduce taxes and that, as lieutenant governor, he reduced spending while increasing services within the state's Medicaid system.
Too close to call in Georgia’s lieutenant governor Republican primary runoff
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, state Rep. Geoff Duncan (R) has a 1,730 vote lead over state Sen. David Shafer (R) in the Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary runoff.
Shafer has not conceded, saying he was “grateful for the support we received” and that his campaign was trying to “determine how many provisional ballots were cast."
Under Georgia law, a candidate may request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 1 percent.
The secretary of state has until Aug. 7 to certify the results.
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In the 43 states where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 8.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 25.1 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has decreased 1.8 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 7.6 percent.
Competing Republican factions prepare for state legislative primaries in Kansas
Twenty-two of the 31 Kansas state House Republican primaries Aug. 7 feature conflicts between supporters and opponents of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) 2012 tax cut package.
Supporters argue the cuts-- which decreased income tax rates and exempted 300,000 businesses from taxation-- increased economic growth. Opponents say the reductions led to unacceptable budget cuts, particularly in education.
The anti-Brownback faction defeated 14 pro-Brownback incumbents in 2016, allowing them to join with Democrats and largely repeal the tax cuts in 2017. The anti-Brownback/Democratic coalition then mustered a two-thirds supermajority to override Brownback’s veto of the repeal.
If the GOP’s 85-40 House majority holds, the pro-Brownback faction needs to have at least 41 members to sustain a future gubernatorial veto of anti-Brownback/Democratic legislation.
This chart shows how many members each faction has going into the 2018 primaries.
Petition mistake may remove Rick Guy from GOP ballot for NY Senate seat
Republican Rick Guy may be removed from New York’s 50th state Senate district primary ballot for submitting invalid petition signatures.
In a preliminary review, the state board of elections found 600 of 1,400 of Guy’s signatures were invalid because the petition gatherer, his son Joseph, was not registered with the state Republican Party.
If Guy is removed from the ballot, Bob Antonacci, the choice of the local GOP, will advance to the general election against Democrat John W. Mannion.
The 50th District is one of 10 Republican-held battleground seats in the New York Senate. Democrats, who hold two battleground seats, need to pick up one seat to take control of the state Senate.
Special guest analysis: Georgia primary turnout
Ben Ratner is a FairVote research intern. Rob Richie is FairVote’s president and CEO.
Tennessee’s primaries have unusual features for a southern primary: an Election Day on Thursday and no runoffs even when candidates fall short of a majority. As a result, the Republicans’ crowded gubernatorial primary may be won with less than 35 percent, and non-majority outcomes are likely in congressional primaries like open-seat races in the 2nd and 6th Districts.
Most southern states hold primary runoffs to help elect consensus nominees by majority vote, as Georgia did last week.
Republican turnout dropped 4 percent statewide even though gubernatorial runoffs sometimes yield higher turnout. For Democrats, congressional runoff turnout declined 36 percent and 52 percent, respectively—part of a longstanding pattern in federal primary runoffs. FairVote found turnout declined 39 percent, on average, in 183 of 190 regularly scheduled U.S. Senate and House primary runoffs from 1994 to 2016. That trend has continued this year, with turnout declining an average 44 percent in 25 of 26 congressional primary runoffs. Half of runoff winners earned fewer runoff votes than in the first round.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Donald Trump
President Donald Trump's imprint on the midterm primaries runs deep. Republican candidates either keep their distance or spar over who is more closely aligned with him. Democrats argue over who will most strongly resist him.
The president sometimes plays a more direct role through endorsements, something he did six days ahead of Georgia’s July 24 Republican gubernatorial runoff.
Trump endorsed Secretary of State Brian Kemp in the runoff, tweeting that Kemp was “tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment."
Kemp defeated Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle by nearly 40 percentage points. In a race defined largely by fierce attacks from both sides, Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said Cagle "was on the ropes” before Trump endorsed Kemp, but the president “delivered the knockout blow."
Cagle’s own internal polling showed the president’s July 18 endorsement boosting Kemp as Cagle's own numbers fell.
Trump has endorsed 26 candidates in 2018: six for the Senate, eight for the House, six for governor, and six for other state executive offices. Of 14 primary candidates he's endorsed in recent months, nine have had their primaries, and all nine have won.
What we're reading
- In liberal state, GOP debates moderation or following Trump Kansas City Star
- Trump Endorsement in Georgia Race Surprised, and Frustrated, Some Republicans New York Times
- Trump's right: The economy is doing well and he deserves some credit CNN
- Georgia Gives Us a 2020 Preview National Review
