Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 27 (August 6, 2018)
This week: Previewing the Aug. 7 and 11 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side and watch your inboxes for primary results Aug. 8. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 7 (Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington), Aug. 11 (Hawaii)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,180 Democrats, 1,026 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“You take Koch money, it's going to be toxic. We are going to let people know that if you take Koch money there's a punishment... If you take money from people who are against the president and are looking to put a knife in the back of the president, you are going to pay.”
- Steve Bannon, CNBC, July 31, 2018
“The idea that the Kochs would embrace protectionism for the good of the Republican party is insanely, profoundly, splurt-coffee-out-your-nostrils hilariously stupid. Saying to the Kochs, “We can have a theoretical discussion later” about whether free trade is good is like telling surgeons, ‘We can talk about whether the patient actually needs a heart transplant down the road. You just need to start cutting.”
- Jonah Goldberg, National Review, Aug. 2, 2018
Kansas
Colyer and Kobach campaign on tax policy, school finance in KS governor’s race
In his bid for a full term as governor of Kansas, Incumbent Jeff Colyer (R) faces six challengers. Colyer and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) are campaigning against the backdrop of two significant events from 2017: the Legislature's reversal of several tax cuts enacted by former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in 2012, and a Kansas Supreme Court's ruling that held the state's school financing formula was unconstitutional.
Kobach has spoken out against the 2017 tax cut repeal, saying the Brownback administration, including then-lieutenant governor Colyer, should have cut spending along with tax rates.
Colyer said he might approve new tax cuts, and that he reduced spending while increasing services within the state's Medicaid system.
Colyer has highlighted his experience in the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations, while Kobach has touted his ties to the president, including an endorsement from Donald Trump Jr., who has campaigned on Kobach's behalf.
Seven Republicans compete for open seat in KS-02
NRCC “On the Radar” candidates, Army veteran and engineer Steve Watkins (R) and state Sens. Caryn Tyson (R) and Steve Fitzgerald (R), are competing in a seven-candidate Republican primary for Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District.
Former Kansas House Speaker Doug Mays (R) also entered the race a few weeks before the candidate filing deadline. He carried the district in the 2014 gubernatorial primary against Sam Brownback (R).
Fundraising leader Watkins has faced criticism for reportedly attending a meeting at the Shawnee Democratic Party headquarters in 2017 to discuss running as a Democrat. Watkins denied the charge, saying he met with the party's vice chair to discuss policy.
Candidates are also sparring over who is best equipped to challenge former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D), who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary and has outraised the Republican candidates. "[The] district needs to be taken seriously by Republicans or they will end up with a supporter of Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda representing Kansas in Congress," said Congressional Leadership Fund executive director Corry Bliss.
Brownback tax cuts at center of Kansas state House Republican primaries
Supporters and opponents of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) 2012 tax cuts are facing off in 23 of 31 contested Republican state House primaries.
Tax cut supporters say the reductions helped the state’s economy grow. Opponents say the cuts created a budget deficit and reduced education spending.
In 2017, Republican tax cut opponents joined with Democrats to repeal most of Brownback’s cuts and overrode his veto of their repeal effort.
Tax cut supporters currently control 38 of the 85 Republican seats, while the tax cut opponents control 41 and Republicans without a clear faction control six. There are 40 Democrats. Eighty-four members can override a gubernatorial veto.
In the gubernatorial election, Republican frontrunners Kris Kobach and Jeff Colyer both say they want to decrease taxes, but Kobach has been a more vocal opponent of the 2017 tax cut repeal.
Five Republicans running to replace Kobach as Kansas secretary of state
Five Republicans are running for the GOP nomination to replace Kris Kobach (R) as Kansas secretary of state.
State Rep. Scott Schwab and former Kobach employee Craig McCullah both say they would pursue policies similar to Kobach’s, including his support for stricter voter ID laws. Kobach supported the 2011 SAFE Act, which required Kansans to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote.
Schwab says he will also focus on following the intent of the laws passed by the Legislature. McCullah wants to reduce office inefficiencies.
Attorney Dennis Taylor is the only candidate to say he would not appeal a June 2018 federal court decision declaring the SAFE Act’s citizenship provision unconstitutional. Taylor has generally criticized Kobach’s tenure and said the office is unprepared for a cyberattack.
State Rep. Craig Esau and activist Randy Duncan are also running. Esau says he would upgrade the office’s computer system. Duncan says local election offices need more autonomy. Both support the SAFE Act.
Michigan
Trump-backed Army veteran faces self-funder in Michigan Senate race
Army veteran John James (R) and venture capitalist Sandy Pensler (R) face off for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan.
James has party support, receiving endorsements from President Donald Trump (R), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Reps. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.). Pensler has the fundraising advantage, having contributed $5 million to his own campaign through the second quarter of 2018.
Abortion became an issue in the race when James, who was endorsed by Right to Life Michigan, criticized Pensler for his past support of abortion. Pensler’s campaign later released a statement saying Pensler was “pro-choice and would vote to confirm pro-choice judges.”
Trump, Pence, Cruz, and Snyder endorse in Michigan gubernatorial primary
Attorney General Bill Schuette (R), Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley (R), state Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R), and physician Jim Hines are competing in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
Schuette has endorsements from President Trump (R) and Vice President Mike Pence and has led the field in several polls. Outgoing Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has endorsed Calley, who is running on his record.
Schuette and Calley have traded accusations throughout the campaign. Calley accused Schuette of politicizing prosecutions in Flint’s water contamination case. Schuette has highlighted Calley’s criticisms of the president.
Colbeck got an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and has positioned himself as the race’s political outsider.
Hines is running on his private sector service as a doctor and as a medical missionary in Africa.
Trump campaign chair, former incumbent, and three legislators running in MI-11
Five Republicans are seeking the GOP nomination for the 11th District seat currently held by retiring incumbent David Trott (R). Election forecasters call the general election a “toss-up.”
Businesswoman Lena Epstein, one of Donald Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign chairs, has led in public polls and in fundraising, after loaning her campaign $1 million.
Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski has emphasized constituent services in the nearly 60 town halls he has held during the campaign.
Local Republican leaders back state Sen. Mike Kowall, who has trailed both in the polls and fundraising.
Also running are state Rep. Klint Kesto and Kerry Bentivolio, who won the seat in 2012 with the support of the party’s libertarian wing. Trott defeated Bentivolio in the 2014 GOP primary.
Special guest analysis: The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on the Florida gubernatorial primary. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
While some analysts are suggesting that the hard-fought battle for the Florida Republican gubernatorial nomination is a test of different political campaign styles, there is evidence President Trump’s endorsement might be more decisive in the Aug. 28 primary between state agricultural commissioner and former congressman Adam Putnam and current 6th District Rep. Ron DeSantis. Putnam is running as a fifth generation Floridian and is critical of DeSantis for running part of his campaign on Fox News from Washington, DC. He has the endorsement of the state chamber of commerce and many local groups. DeSantis, himself a native Floridian, has the endorsement of President Trump and several Trump allies, and campaigns on a pro-Trump agenda. Since receiving the president’s nod, DeSantis has soared ahead of Putnam whom he trailed during much of the early campaign. Working to DeSantis’ advantage perhaps is the fact so many current Florida voters moved to the state from the North and Midwest—and so far in the primary season, President Trump’s endorsement has usually made a key difference.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
“My early jobs included serving as a yard boy in Midland, and I also worked construction for a summer. And I was the head potato boy at Ponderosa Steak House, where I learned to mop a floor from a grizzled Marine who reinforced the ethic that if you have a job, do it right. I’ve carried that forward through all of my endeavors.”
- Bill Schuette, candidate for governor of Michigan
Read all of Bill Schuette's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Republican Main Street Partnership
Factional conflict has been a defining issue in the 2018 GOP primaries, with the party's moderate and more conservative wings vying for influence.
Major players on the moderate side are the nonprofit Republican Main Street Partnership RMSP) and two associated groups: the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC and the Defending Main Street super PAC.
The RSMP nonprofit was founded in 1997. Its membership includes more than 70 Republican members of Congress. The group’s mission is "electing and defending legislators who will govern effectively in the Republican tradition." The RSMP urges members of Congress to "work across the aisle to develop pragmatic solutions." The group’s CEO, Sarah Chamberlain, serves as treasurer of both the PAC and super PAC.
The Partnership PAC routinely endorses the incumbent members of the RMSP for reelection. This year it has also endorsed 12 non-incumbent primary challengers. In the eight primaries held so far, Partnership PAC challengers have won four races. PAC endorsee Sarah Nickloes lost Tennessee's 2nd District primary Aug. 2.
Upcoming primaries with Partnership PAC-endorsed challengers:
- Dino Rossi, Washington's 8th District top-two primary, Aug. 7
- Maria Elvira Salazar, Florida's 27th District primary, Aug. 28
- Kevin Hern, Oklahoma's 1st District primary runoff Aug. 28
- Mike Miller, Florida's 7th District primary, Aug. 28
Through June 30, the PAC contributed $365,800 to congressional candidates, with all but $5,000 of the total going to individual House candidates.
The Partnership’s super PAC, Defending Main Street, spent $921,571 through the end of June, with 78 percent of the total going to ad buys and related expenses. Ahead of the May 8 GOP primary in Ohio's 12th Congressional District, Defending Main Street spent $240,000 on ads supporting Partnership-backed candidate Troy Balderson. The super PAC spent over $100,000 in support of Nickloes in Tennessee’s 2nd District primary.
What we're reading
- Closing sprint: Kevin Nicholson, Leah Vukmir vie for Republican U.S. Senate nomination Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
- In liberal state, GOP debates moderation or following Trump Associated Press
- Bannon to Kochs: ‘Shut up and get with the program’ Politico
- Susan B. Anthony List Lobbying Red-State Dems to Vote for Kavanaugh National Review
