Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 29 (August 20, 2018)
This week: Arizona, Florida, and Mississippi primaries heat up. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 21 (Alaska, Wyoming), Aug. 28 (Arizona, Florida)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,181 Democrats, 1,030 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Pawlenty had been a very able two-term governor of Minnesota, and this primary was a further wakeup call about the mood of Republican voters. Johnson had campaigned in a RV with the slogan “Overthrow the Status Quo” emblazoned on its side. It was a compelling example of the impact Trump conservatism and demands for real change are having on the GOP.”
- Newt Gingrich, Fox News, Aug. 16, 2018
“Another reason Pawlenty may have lost is because he is a known establishment guy: He served as Minnesota’s governor for two terms and then lobbied after his failed presidential bid. He’s nice, hard-working, and sharp — but over the years developed a reputation as a bit of a Republican in name only.”
- Nicole Russell, Washington Examiner, Aug. 15, 2018
U.S. Congress
Ward faces offensive from two fronts, DefendArizona and the Arpaio campaign
DefendArizona, which has already reserved $5 million in airtime to support U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the general election against likely Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, increased its spending to $2.8 million in the GOP primary.
The group is turning that additional money against state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), airing ads depicting Ward as weak on terrorism and McSally as a combat veteran with the “guts to fight [the] liberal agenda.”
Ward also faces an offensive from former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R). Two former Ward staffers joined Arpaio’s campaign, accusing Ward of harming their employment prospects after they left her campaign.
“We're out for revenge," said former Ward staffer Dustin Stockton. "We have to be able to work, and if they're stopping us from making a living, we're committed to destroying their political careers."
Satellite spending in Mississippi Senate special election comes under scrutiny
Illinois billionaire Richard Uihlein and New York investor Robert Mercer contributed $1.25 million to Remember Mississippi, a super PAC backing state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) in the special election to replace U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran (R).
According to the Associated Press, the group spent $265,000 on video production and ads, while consultants received $792,000. PAC treasurer Tommy Barnett said the consultants helped establish “a strong regional volunteer presence across Mississippi that has been putting up signs, passing out bumper stickers, and attending events engaging directly with voters.”
McDaniel faces appointed U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and two Democrats in the Nov. 6 special election. Hyde-Smith has raised $1.7 million to McDaniel’s $327,000 through the second quarter.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the general election, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff Nov. 27. McDaniel has placed third in recent polls.
State Executives
Campaign finance reports reveal expensive primary for Wyoming governor
Six Republican candidates are running in what could be the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in Wyoming history.
Longtime GOP donor Foster Friess and state Treasurer Mark Gordon were in a statistical tie in an August poll and lead the field in fundraising. Friess reported $2.5 million in contributions to Gordon's $2.1 million through Aug. 7.
Harriet Hageman polled third and has raised $1 million. Sam Galeotos polled in fourth place and has raised $1.8 million.
Gordon and Galeotos are in competition for moderate votes, while Hageman and Friess are vying for more conservative votes.
Gordon is campaigning on his record. Friess and Galeotos have highlighted their business experience, while Hageman touts her legal background as an attorney.
Former surgeon Taylor Haynes and businessman Bill Dahlin are also running in the primary.
DeSantis and Putnam enter final stretch in Florida primary
With the Republican gubernatorial primary just over two weeks away, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) are making their final appeals to voters in their bids for the nomination.
Local political observers saw Putnam, who is serving his second four-year term as agriculture commissioner, as the race’s early frontrunner. Emphasizing his Florida upbringing and knowledge of the state, Putnam’s endorsers include the Florida Chamber of Commerce and state House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R).
DeSantis, who is serving his third term in the U.S. House, emphasizes his support for President Trump’s (R) agenda and his endorsements from Trump, Sean Hannity, and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).
In the campaign’s final days, the candidates have clashed on the environment and firearms regulations. DeSantis has criticized Putnam over the state’s algae blooms, saying Putnam took campaign contributions from the sugar industry, which DeSantis says is partially responsible for the algae growth.
Putnam has criticized DeSantis for his disagreement with Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri’s decision not to pursue charges following a shooting in which the shooter claimed self-defense under the state’s stand your ground law.
The Aug. 28 primary is open to Republican voters only.
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to 2016. Takeaways: In the 45 states holding partisan elections in 2018, the number of Republican candidates running increased 1.1 percent. The number of incumbents retiring increased 20.4 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges decreased 3.6 percent and the number of Republican primaries increased 4.6 percent.
State GOP and Musk Ox Coalition will clash in Aug. 21 Alaska state House primaries
An intraparty feud over budget policy will feature in Alaska’s state House primaries Tuesday.
Declining oil prices have left the state with a $700 million deficit. The state GOP and party leaders want to cut spending to close the shortfall. However, a smaller group known as the Musk Ox Coalition wants to create a state income tax to fix the problem.
The Coalition’s leading members are state Reps. Gabrielle LeDoux, Paul Seaton, and Louise Stutes. They left the Republican caucus after the 2016 elections and joined a Democratic-led majority coalition which voted in favor of a 2017 proposal to introduce a state income tax.
The defections cost the GOP a majority in the chamber, leading state party chairman Tuckerman Babcock to recruit primary challengers against the defectors.
Seaton decided to run for re-election as an independent. LeDoux and Stutes face challengers Aaron Weaver and Rich Walker, respectively, in Tuesday’s primary.
With support from the union-aligned Working Families for Alaska (WFA), potential Musk Ox Republicans are making plays for three other seats.
- Former incumbent and Musk Ox ally Jim Colver is running against state Rep. George Rauscher (R), who defeated Colver in the 2016 primary.
- Former state Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom is running in an open primary to replace retiring state Rep. Dan Saddler (R).
- Kelly Merrick, wife of WFA leader Joey Merrick, is running to replace retiring state Rep. Lora Reinbold (R).
Sixth anti-tax cut incumbent defeated as final KS state House primary is called
The last Aug. 7 Kansas state House Republican primary has been called for Paul Waggoner over state Rep. Steven Becker.
Waggoner, a supporter of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s 2012 tax cut package, defeated Becker, who voted to repeal the tax cuts, by a nine-vote margin. No Democrat filed for the general election.
Becker is the sixth anti-tax cut opponent to lose a primary. Pro-tax cut members boosted their share of the 85-member House Republican caucus from 38 to 43 members.
Anti-tax cut members saw their share decline from 41 to 33 members. Nine members do not clearly belong in either faction.
These numbers could change depending on Republican performance in the general election.
Special guest analysis: Trump booster DeSantis disrupts Putnam’s assumed ascent to Governor’s Mansion
John Haughey is a contributor to Watchdog.org. We invited him to share analysis of Florida's gubernatorial race. Click here to read more.
Adam Putnam has been grooming to be the governor of Florida since he was 22, when he became the youngest state house representative ever elected in 1996. After two terms in Tallahassee, Putnam served 10 years in Congress, rising to a key leadership position as chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee.
Putnam, whose family has been citrus farming and cattle ranching since the 1920s, returned to Florida in 2010 and was elected state Agriculture Commissioner. In 2014, he was re-elected state Agricultural Commissioner and set about launching his long-expected run for governor, his place on the November 2018 ballot as the Republican candidate to succeed two-term Gov. Rick Scott, a presumed certainty – a slam dunk. He had checked the boxes, paid his dues, done the trench work, it was Putnam’s time.
But then three-term Congressman Ron DeSantis announced in January 2018 that he would challenge Putnam in the Aug. 28 GOP primary. DeSantis, a Yale graduate, former Navy attorney and Tea Party/Freedom Caucus stalwart from Dunedin, dismissed Putnam as a “career politician” while campaigning almost exclusively on his support for President Donald Trump’s agenda. When Trump formally endorsed DeSantis, Florida’s GOP gubernatorial race essentially became a referendum on the president’s policies – and another example of state and local elections across the country being “nationalized.”
Putnam, 44, and DeSantis, 39, are both conservatives with little daylight between their stated views. What distinguishes them is DeSantis’ rally call to the Trump agenda and Putnam’s “Florida First” emphasis on his knowledge and experience dealing with the state’s issues.
According to an Aug. 15 University of Central Florida poll, the two are in a “statistical dead heat.” Other polls show DeSantis with slight leads. At stake for Republicans is continued control of the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee.
Democrats expect anti-Trump sentiment to boost their party rolls for the mid-term elections, but according to the Florida Division of Elections, the anticipated “blue wave” has not manifested for the primary. In fact, the percentage of registered Democrats who will vote in the primary is down by nearly 2 percent from 2016. Conversely, the percentage of registered Republicans remains the same as 2016. Democrats will account for 37 percent of the 13 million eligible primary voters with Republicans constituting 35 percent of the electorate. Of the nearly 710,000 early votes cast as of Aug. 15, more than 680,000 were absentee ballots. Republicans accounted for 47 percent, Democrats 40 percent.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Both sitting representatives and candidates for office hear many personal stories from the residents of their district. Is there a story that you’ve heard that you found particularly touching, memorable, or impactful?
Nightmare tales of veterans health care.
- Bill Akins, candidate for Florida's 17th Congressional District
Read all of Bill Akins' responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. has weighed in on three gubernatorial primary races in 2018, endorsing Foster Friess in Wyoming, Kris Kobach in Kansas, and Ron DeSantis in Florida.
Trump Jr. has emphasized the support these candidates showed for his father during the 2016 presidential race.
Trump Jr. said in his Aug. 5 endorsement of Friess, "Following my father clinching the Republican nomination, there was a short period where some conventional sources of funding had not yet opened up to us.”
“Foster was right there when we needed him and helped open the door to other early adopters in the donor community," Trump Jr. said.
Friess hosted a fundraiser for Trump’s campaign attended by Trump Jr. in October 2016. Friess is one of six candidates seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Wyoming's Aug. 21 primary.
Trump Jr. also campaigned for Florida gubernatorial primary candidate Ron DeSantis. "Ron DeSantis was there from Day 1," Trump Jr. said at a July 18 rally. "He was with us when it wasn't exactly cool to be with us … when we were at zero percent."
President Trump endorsed DeSantis in June. DeSantis faces state Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam and six others in the Aug. 28 primary.
Trump Jr. stumped for Kris Kobach during his Kansas gubernatorial primary bid. The Aug. 7 contest was too close to call. Incumbent Jeff Colyer conceded the race on Aug. 14 with Kobach up by 312 votes.
Trump Jr. made his first appearance with Kobach in November 2017 and joined him again at a fundraiser July 17, where Kobach said he was the only statewide official to endorse Trump before the 2016 Kansas presidential caucus. Trump Jr. said that endorsement "perhaps explains why I am here today."
The president endorsed Kobach the day before the primary.
Trump Jr. is an executive vice president at Trump Organization and was part of his father's presidential transition team.
What we're reading
- This Florida state Senate primary is all about Trump NBC News
- The Center Does Not Hold National Review
- Lessons from Minnesota’s Primaries Powerline
- Wisconsin Race Shows the Weakness of Old-Style GOP Politics American Greatness
