Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 2 (January 22, 2018)
Filing deadlines have passed in two states, but elsewhere, the jockeying for a slot on the primary ballot continues. We're covering both sides of the aisle, so click here to sign up for The Heart of the Primaries: Democrats. Have a tip for us or see something we missed? Let us know at geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
Upcoming filing deadlines: West Virginia (Jan. 27), Kentucky (Jan. 30)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas (2)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,101 Democrats, 777 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“In all these areas, a conservative-populist reset could be a difficult task, and it would be far from a cure-all for Republican political woes. But it could help change the political narrative heading into the 2018 midterms and could help the president deliver on some of his 2016 campaign promises. Moreover, policy rethinking could prompt a sclerotic Beltway to respond to challenges that it has ignored for too long.”
- Fred Bauer, National Review, Jan. 2, 2018
“And 2017 will also stand as a year in which the populists most proximate to political power fell flat on their faces. The problem isn’t populism per se. The problem is that much of the populism accompanying (and also powering) Donald Trump’s rise has been purely negative — vacuous populism whose beginning, middle, and end is inchoate anger at the ‘establishment.’”
- Editorial Board, Washington Examiner, Dec. 31, 2017
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 239
- Open seats: 45
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 31
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
The kingmaker of Iowa endorses Ward in Arizona Senate race
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) endorsed Dr. Kelli Ward (R) in the Arizona Senate race Friday, bypassing both fellow immigration hardliner former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) and U.S. House colleague Martha McSally (R-Ariz.).
“We need principled, conservative representatives who will be smart on enforcing border security and cracking down on illegal immigration,” King said.
McSally’s entry into the Senate race moved her district, Arizona’s 2nd, from a toss-up to a Democratic lean.
Ryan sets off-year record for House leadership fundraising
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) brought in $44 million in 2017, setting an off-year fundraising record. The biggest beneficiary: the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) which got $32 million from the haul.
With incumbent Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.) out of the race for Oklahoma’s 1st District, the NRCC is going need all the resources it can muster to defend 31 open Republican seats.
Minnesota Republicans scramble for big name in Senate race
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) both declined to run in the U.S. Senate special election to finish Al Franken (D)’s term.
Potential candidates for this toss-up seat include: Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.) and former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn). The filing deadline is June 5.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Ron DeSantis gets Hannity endorsement for Florida governor
Conservative media personality Sean Hannity followed President Trump’s lead and endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) in Florida’s Aug. 28 gubernatorial primary
Influencers including Sheldon Adelson, David Bossie, and Rebekah Mercer signed on to head DeSantis’ finance efforts. Politico said the groundswell of support for DeSantis has “upend[ed] the race in the nation’s biggest swing state.” State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) remains the fundraising leader, having banked $15.9 million between his campaign and his Florida Grown PAC. Former state Sen. Jack Latvala (R) has raised $4.12 million between his campaign and his Florida Leadership Committee PAC. Although DeSantis has not yet filed campaign finance reports, his Fund for Florida’s Future PAC had raised $2.65 million. Keep an eye on Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran. Though he hasn’t joined the race yet, Corcoran’s Watchdog PAC raised $6.06 million last year.
State legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for both parties in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois and Texas, where candidate lists are now final, there has been a 18.1 percent increase in the number of Republican candidates running, no increase or decrease in the number of Republican incumbents facing primary challenges, and a 29.3 percent increase in the total number of Republican state legislative primaries.
Republican war in the Texas state House features 26 incumbent primary challenges
Twenty-six incumbent Republican House members face primary challenges in a battle between the party’s conservative and moderate factions. The victors could set the tone not just for the House, but for the entire Texas GOP.
The winning faction will likely choose the next House speaker in 2019 as the current Speaker, Republican Joe Straus, is retiring. Anti-Straus Republicans are asking candidates to pledge to vote for the Republican Caucus’ choice for speaker. In 2009, a small group of Republicans voted with Democrats to elect Straus. As of Jan. 10, 115 of 182 Republican candidates had signed the pledge. Influential groups to watch in these races include the Texas Medical Association on the pro-Straus side and Empower Texans on the anti-Straus side.
Including open seats, there are 42 Republican primaries for state House. The Senate has seven Republican primaries, six of which are challenges against incumbents.
Anti-Straus style Republicans, led by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), control the Senate. Three Senate primaries pit pro-Straus Republicans against anti-Straus incumbents. Two other races feature Republicans in the anti-Straus mold trying to unseat incumbents they deem insufficiently conservative.
The primaries are March 6, with runoff elections, if necessary, May 22.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Charlie Johnson
"You have the right to home-school your children. You have the right to 'private school' your children. You don't have the right to ask the people of Texas to pay for it."
- Charlie Johnson, executive director of Pastors for Texas Children
Charlie Johnson, pastor of the Fort Worth ministry Bread Fellowship, believes supporting public education is a Christian obligation. He founded Pastors for Texas Children in 2013 to advocate for public schools.
Part of that advocacy includes pairing churches with struggling schools to provide volunteer tutoring and other assistance. Johnson is also taking his mission to the polls. Pastors for Texas Children is mobilizing Republican primary voters to support state House incumbents who have opposed school choice bills. He is also urging voters to back pro-public schools candidates for the open seats of public school defenders, and House moderates, Joe Straus and Byron Cook. Johnson told the Dallas Morning News he expects to target about six state House primaries and possibly three state Senate primaries this year.
Pastors for Texas Children has been credited with helping the Straus-led wing of the House GOP hold Byron Cook’s seat in 2016. Cook won that primary by 225 votes out of more than 28,000 cast.
What we’re reading
- “Trump Visit Shows High Stakes for Pa. Special Election” (Real Clear Politics)
- “The GOP Can’t Win a DACA Debate It Won’t Have” (National Review)
- “For GOP, No Trump Juice or Coattails in November” (Real Clear Politics)
- “It’s Democrats’ turn to fear the shutdown trap” (The Washington Post)
