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Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 30 (August 27, 2018)
This week: Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma take the spotlight. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 28 (Arizona, Florida), Sept. 4 (Massachusetts)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,185 Democrats, 1,034 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“I think that Mollie Tibbets could be a more important person in September and October than Paul Manafort ever dreamed of… She was killed by a person who is exactly what Trump has been warning about, and I think the left has to bear the burden of being the party that is tolerating Americans being killed by people who are here illegally.”
- Newt Gingrich, Fox News, Aug. 23, 2018
“This column has been hoping for some time that Washington lawmakers will cut a deal that allows more immigration and forgiving treatment for those brought here as children in return for the construction of President Donald Trump’s promised border wall and enhanced law enforcement. This week was a reminder of just how difficult it may be to forge such a compromise.”
- James Freeman, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 2018
Arizona
McSally leads three-way battle in Senate Republican primary
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R), U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R), and former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) are in a three-way battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona. The toss-up seat currently held by retiring incumbent Jeff Flake (R) is critical to Republicans retaining the Senate majority.
McSally has led in polls released in July and August by an average of 14 percentage points. Party leaders and big donors are also backing her campaign and the newly created DefendArizona, a pro-McSally PAC, has reserved $5 million worth of general election air time.
Conservative donor Robert Mercer contributed $800,000 to a pro-Ward KelliPAC.
The race’s main ideological battlegrounds are immigration policy and support for the Trump administration's agenda.
Ward has criticized McSally’s cosponsorship of an immigration measure -- support McSally later withdrew -- that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors. Ward wrote an editorial in the Washington Examiner supporting the administration's zero-tolerance policy.
While the president has made positive comments about all three candidates, he has not issued an endorsement.
Ducey-Bennett rematch in Republican gubernatorial primary
Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey faces former Secretary of State Ken Bennett in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Bennett cited his criticisms of Ducey's handling of teacher pay raises as his initial reason for primarying the governor.
Bennett has criticized Ducey over gun policy, education spending, and the Medicaid expansion tax. Ducey has touted his record of increasing education funding his work with the state's budget.
Ducey defeated Bennett by 25 percentage points in the 2014 gubernatorial primary.
Three vie for nomination in 1st District Republican primary
Retired Air Force pilot Wendy Rogers, attorney and farmer Tiffany Shedd, and state Sen. Steve Smith are competing in the Republican primary for Arizona's 1st District. Arizona's 1st is one of 13 districts nationally that voted for both Donald Trump (R) and a Democratic representative (Tom O'Halleran) in 2016.
The three candidates largely agree on most policy issues. The key differences are their experience, the emphasis they placed on certain issues, and their endorsements.
Smith's backers include House Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows and the National Border Patrol Council; he emphasizes his experience in the state Senate and his record of working to reduce illegal immigration and lower taxes.
Shedd points to her background as a farmer and homeschooling mother, emphasizing her support for a border wall and limited federal government involvement in business and education. She has been endorsed by several U.S. representatives and local officials.
Rogers has made her support for President Trump the central theme of her campaign. Her policy priorities include building a border wall and overturning Roe v. Wade. She has the support of U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) and several conservative PACs.
The winner will face O'Halleran, who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, in the general election.
Florida
DeSantis and Putnam bring contrasting styles, endorsements to gubernatorial primary
Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) and state agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam (R) lead the eight-candidate field seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
DeSantis is highlighting his military service and list of endorsers, which includes the president, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and political commentator Sean Hannity.
Putnam emphasizes his connections to, and knowledge, of the state. State House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R) and the Florida Chamber of Commerce have endorsed him.
DeSantis and Putnam have differed on several policy issues, including the proposed response to the state’s algae blooms, the campaign has largely been defined by differences in style.
DeSantis has accused Putnam of supporting policies favoring the state’s sugar industry and criticized Putnam’s political career, saying he has spent too much time in elected office. Putnam says DeSantis doesn’t know Florida or the issues, and is running a campaign lacking in substance.
The Aug. 28 primary is open only to registered Republicans.
Three candidates seek GOP nod in FL-06
Three candidates are seeking the GOP nomination for the seat left open when DeSantis decided to run for governor.
Former state Rep. Fred Costello (R), who challenged DeSantis for the nomination in 2012 and 2016, is running on his knowledge of the district and has referred to his opponents as carpetbaggers. The National Rifle Association initially endorsed Costello, but later rescinded its endorsement after Costello said he would have voted for a state bill raising the legal age and establishing mandatory waiting periods for purchases of certain firearms.
Businessman Michael Waltz (R) emphasizes his service in the military and as a staffer in the White House and Pentagon. Waltz’s backers include Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry and the With Honor Fund.
Businessman John Ward (R) emphasizes his private sector and military experience. He supports reducing corporate tax rates, the rollback of Obama-era regulations, and a steady interest rate. The American Patriots PAC, a newly-established group whose only other activity has been on behalf of Texas congressional candidate Daniel Crenshaw (R), has run ads opposing Ward and supporting Waltz.
The Aug. 28 primary is open only to registered Republicans.
Competing coalitions support FL-17 Republican frontrunners
With similar policy positions but distinctive backers, state legislators Julio Gonzalez (R) and Greg Steube (R) are running for the GOP nomination in the open seat 17th Congressional District.
Both candidates are social conservatives, veterans, and attorneys who served in the state Legislature. But the coalitions backing each candidate represent different factions of the Republican Party.
More than 10 members of Congress have endorsed Gonzalez, including Florida delegation members Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and Reps. Carlos Curbelo (R), Mario Diaz-Balart (R), and Neal Dunn (R). The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also backed Gonzalez, citing his health care policy and experience as a surgeon.
The Club for Growth, House Freedom Fund, National Rifle Association, and With Honor Fund back Steube. Americans for Prosperity rated Steube the state’s most fiscally conservative legislator in 2017.
Two state legislators lead five-candidate field for open seat in FL-15
State Rep. Ross Spano (R) and former state Rep. Neil Combee (R) are the Republican frontrunners for Florida's 15th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Dennis Ross (R) announced he would not seek re-election a month before the candidate filing deadline.
Spano, who was endorsed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R), currently represents a seat in the Tampa suburbs. He supports the Trump administration, anti-abortion legislation, and the Second Amendment.
Combee served in the state Legislature, representing a Polk County district, before being appointed state executive director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Farm Service. He calls himself "the ONLY candidate trusted and appointed by President Trump.”
Moody, White face off in Attorney General primary
State Rep. Frank White and former circuit court judge Ashley Moody are vying in the Republican primary to succeed term-limited Attorney General Pam Bondi (R).
The candidates have similar views on issues such as taxes, abortion, gun restrictions, and government regulations. But they have criticized each other’s ideology and experience. A White campaign mailer said Moody is "running as a Republican on a record of a liberal," while a Moody campaign ad referred to White as "a car salesman turned politician."
Moody has defended her conservative credentials, while White says his private sector experience will enable him to improve the state's economy.
Oklahoma
Cornett and Stiff face off again in OK primary runoff
Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett (R) and mortgage industry executive Kevin Stitt (R) advanced to the Oklahoma gubernatorial Republican primary runoff after neither candidate crossed the 50 percent threshold in the primary.
Although Cornett and Stitt have similar platforms, they differ on education and energy policy.
During a debate in April, Cornett approved of term-limited Gov. Mary Fallin's $474 million tax package to fund raises for teachers. Stitt said he would have sought to reduce waste before raising taxes.
When discussing Fallin’s gross production tax increase, Cornett said the state needed to move away from reliance on the oil and gas industry to provide revenue. Stitt said he would not have signed the tax legislation, adding, there must be a “level playing field between your industry and the market you compete in.”
Hern and Harris seek nomination on OK-01
Voters in the 1st Congressional District return to the polls to select the GOP congressional nominee two months after former Tulsa County district attorney Tim Harris (R) and businessman Kevin Hern (R) advanced from the June 26 primary.
Harris is running on his experience as a prosecutor, saying it would give him a leg up in representing the district in legislative negotiations. Hern has touted his private sector experience and his support for the president.
Hern’s campaign ads have has portrayed Harris as a career politician, citing Harris’ 16 years as district attorney. Harris said Hern’s self-funded campaign has left him without adequate resources to respond to the ads.
The Aug. 28 primary runoff is open to registered Republicans only.
Ten OK state House incumbents competing in primary runoffs after education strikes
The fallout from the statewide teacher walkout earlier this year is still affecting legislative primaries as 10 Republican state representatives face primary runoffs Aug. 28. There are 26 Republican runoffs overall.
Six GOP legislators lost their reelection bids in the June 26 regular primaries. Those contests occurred two months after school teachers staged a statewide walkout calling for higher salaries and education funding. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) signed legislation increasing taxes to pay for additional funding. Strike organizers said it was not enough.
University of Oklahoma political scientist Keith Gaddie attributed the six incumbent defeats and 10 incumbent runoffs to a mobilization of public education advocates against Republicans in the legislature.
Educators are running in 12 of the 26 Republican runoffs, including three featuring incumbents.
Special guest analysis: Arizona Senate primary
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on the Arizona U.S. Senate primary. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
A new shadow has been cast over the hotly contested GOP U.S. Senate primary in Arizona that will take place on August 28. This three-way race features retiring Congresswoman Martha McSally who leads in recent polls over controversial former Judge Joe Arpaio (pardoned by President Trump shortly after a 2017 criminal contempt conviction) and former State Senator Kelli Ward. The incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake is retiring. Mr. Trump has not made an endorsement in this race.
The late-breaking development has been the passing of the other Arizona senator, GOP John McCain (who was not up for re-election this year). GOP Governor Doug Ducey will now appoint a successor who will serve until a special election is held in 2020. Ducey's office has indicated he will announce his appointment after the funeral. One choice Ducey has is to appoint McSally, but that would result in either Arpaio or Ward winning the primary, and the likely result then would be that certain Democratic nominee, retiring Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema, would pick up the seat for her party in November. Although Arizona has been represented by two Republican senators since 1995, the expected McSally-Sinema contest in November is currently rated a toss-up, with Sinema holding a lead in early polls.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?
“Making government work. That may sound obvious, but too many executives seem to forget it. To them, the first responsibility of public office is to be re-elected. The second is they seek to think public service is about making a point. I’ve always taken the opposite approach: If I make government work for the people, the people will appreciate it. To me, public service is about making a difference.”
- Marcus Molinaro, candidate for Governor of New York
Read all of Marcus Molinaro's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Freedom Partners Action Fund
The mission of the Freedom Partners Action Fund, a super PAC founded by Charles and David Koch, is supporting "candidates who break down barriers that prevent people from realizing their full potential."
On July 10, the group endorsed U.S. Rep. and Florida gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis (R) in the Republican primary.
In July, FPAF spent over $300,000 on direct mail supporting DeSantis. The mailer said DeSantis will "fight for taxpayers and small businesses," "fight to close special-interest loopholes and end giveaways," and "fight wasteful spending so you keep more of your hard-earned dollars."
DeSantis faces Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) and six others in the primary. DeSantis trailed Putnam in polls in June. Through July and August, DeSantis has led or has tied with Putnam within the margin of error in polls.
An endorsement by a Koch-founded group could connect DeSantis with a larger network of conservative donors. The president’s endorsement of DeSantis may do so as well.
DeSantis' total contributions almost doubled from July 5 to late August, from $2.6 million to $4.9 million. His candidate committee, Friends of DeSantis, went from $9.8 million to $12.5 million raised. Putnam maintains a fundraising lead. He has raised $9.1 million and his candidate committee has raised $22.9 million.
In November, FPAF endorsed Adam Laxalt, who won in Nevada's Republican gubernatorial primary.
What we're reading
- Republican insurgent gives Wyoming Senate incumbent a fight Associated Press
- ‘I know he’s frustrated’: GOP megadonor on staggering losing streak Politico
- Tennessee’s Senate Race Pits Pistol-Packing Republican against Milquetoast Democrat National Review
- ND-Sen: Dem Heidi Heitkamp deemed ‘most vulnerable’ midterm senator as GOP’s Kevin Cramer attacks The Blaze
