Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 3 (January 29, 2018)
Three filing deadlines down, 47 to go. We're covering both sides of the aisle, so click here to sign up for The Heart of the Primaries: Democrats. Have a tip for us or see something we missed? Let us know at geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
Upcoming filing deadlines: Kentucky (Jan. 30), Ohio (Feb. 7), Indiana and Alabama (Feb. 9)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas, West Virginia (3)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,107 Democrats, 798 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
What are Republicans' chances of defending the House in 2018?
“Add it all up, and Republicans look like they have a decent shot to keep control of the House in November."
- Jim Geraghty, National Review, Jan. 25, 2018
“Here is the bottom line: Treating this campaign like a conventional midterm is simply not going to get it done this year for Republicans. Not with the Democratic base this angry. The GOP has to change the math or face a bloodbath in the ‘burbs.”
- Jordan Gehrke, The Federalist, Jan. 23, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Open seats: 46
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 32
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
U.S. Senate:
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Meehan makes 32
Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Penn.) announced his retirement Thursday following allegations of sexual harassment. He is the 32nd Republican to retire or resign from the U.S. House this election season.
Although Meehan was re-elected in 2016 by 19 points, Hillary Clinton (D) won the district in the presidential election.
Priebus backs Vukmir in Wisconsin Senate race
Former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus endorsed state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) in the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, and questioned the party loyalty of her primary rival, Kevin Nicholson (R).
"When you go from president of the College Democrats to wanting to be the U.S. Senator for the Republican Party, I think there should be some in-between time," Priebus said.
The pro-Trump Great America PAC backs Nicholson.
Issa chooses Harkey as potential successor in CA-49
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) endorsed California Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R) in the race to replace him in California’s 49th Congressional District.
Issa’s House colleague Ed Royce (R-Calif.) is backing San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar (R).
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Dean drops out of Minnesota race, endorses Johnson
State Rep. Matt Dean (R) withdrew from Minnesota's gubernatorial primary and endorsed Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R). Johnson was the GOP’s 2014 gubernatorial nominee. He lost to Gov. Mark Dayton (D) by 6 points.
Dean is the second candidate to withdraw from the race. In our Jan. 15 newsletter we noted state Sen. Dave Osmek (R) leaving the race, citing poor performance in straw polls. He urged other candidates who were not gaining ground to follow suit. Osmek made no specific endorsement when he withdrew, but promised to support whichever candidate the party central committee backs.
Nine candidates remain in the Aug. 14 primary. The filing deadline is June 5.
Minnesota Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/67
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 76/134
Taylor denies Kasich endorsement
Reports surfaced last week that Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R) denied getting Gov. John Kasich’s (R) endorsement at a gathering of the Clermont County GOP earlier in January. Taylor claimed Kasich had endorsed her opponent Mike DeWine (R) instead. Taylor said she had not spoken with the governor in more than a year. In an email exchange with the Dayton Daily News, Taylor spokesman Michael Duchesne said Kasich "wasn’t active in her campaign and his political team was actively working for Mike DeWine."
Kasich announced his support for Taylor when she first entered the race in July 2017, although the two have not made any joint campaign appearances. A Fallon Research poll of primary voters found 63 percent of Republicans approved of Kasich's job performance, while 75 percent approved of President Trump's. Trump and Kasich have butted heads since the 2016 presidential primary. President Trump has not endorsed either DeWine or Taylor.
Ohio Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 11/16
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 24/33
- Seats held in state House: 64/99
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaway: In Illinois and Texas, where candidate lists are now final, there has been an 18.1 percent increase in the number of Republican candidates running, no increase or decrease in the number of Republican incumbents facing primary challenges, and a 29.3 percent increase in the total number of Republican state legislative primaries.
Meet Team Straus
The Texas Association of Business (TAB) picked sides in the Republican war in the Texas state House primaries, endorsing incumbents allied with House Speaker Joe Straus (R).
TAB is trying to stop a House takeover by Straus’ Republican rivals, including members of the Texas Freedom Caucus. The groups differ on a number of issues, including legislation that would have regulated bathroom usage.
Before the Legislature’s July 2017 special session, TAB bought $1 million in radio ads opposing the bathroom bill. The Senate passed the measure, but Straus prevented the House from voting on it.
Campaign spending by TAB, the Associated Republicans of Texas, and other Straus-aligned groups could help determine how many of Straus’ allies survive the primaries.
There will be 41 state House Republican primaries (26 challenges to incumbents and 15 battles for open seats) on March 6. Most of these races pit pro-Straus candidates against candidates backed by anti-Straus groups like Empower Texans.
Straus censured by Texas Republican Party
As part of the ongoing Republican war in the Texas State Legislature, the state’s Republican Executive Committee voted 44-19 to censure Speaker Straus Saturday. A resolution of censure is a formal expression of disapproval.
Straus’ relationship with the state party has been strained ever since he came to power with Democratic help in 2009. But his opposition to parts of Gov. Greg Abbott’s 2017 special session agenda made the already tense situation worse.
New Jersey Republican leaders split on Trump and direction of party
Don’t expect New Jersey Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R) to imitate President Trump as he takes on Gov. Phil Murphy’s (D) agenda. Instead, Bramnick intends to use a “Rally the Reasonable” strategy focused on raising objections to the costs of Murphy’s proposals.
"I didn't spend this much time in Republican politics to be defined by tweets that insult people, or a demeanor that in my judgment doesn't reflect the best of the Republican Party," Bramnick said.
State Party Chairman Doug Steinhardt said Bramnick speaks for himself, not for the state party. Steinhardt said the New Jersey GOP must “develop a winning strategy that is beyond over reacting to the President’s tweets or simply waiting for the Murphy administration to make mistakes.”
Power Players
A weekly feature on influencers shaping the direction of the party.
Reince Priebus
"I have watched conservative people get pushed around by this phony mantra about antiestablishment that I find it so dishonest that I can't sit here and not say anything."
-Reince Priebus, on comments about Republican U.S. Senate candidate Leah Vukmir
Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus made his first endorsement on Jan. 22, backing Wisconsin state Sen. Leah Vukmir over Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson in the Republican race to challenge U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).
Priebus isn't the first high-profile Trump associate to weigh in on the race. The pro-Trump Great America PAC is backing Nicholson, and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon endorsed Nicholson before his rift with Trump.
Priebus chaired the Wisconsin Republican Party from 2007 to 2011 when Vukmir was in the state legislature, and Priebus and Gov. Scott Walker led a Republican resurgence in the state. Priebus gave Vukmir some of the credit. "She was there every step of the way building what we built in Wisconsin," he said. "She deserves credit but she's highly qualified and without question the best choice for U.S. Senate."
Vukmir also has endorsements from state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, state Sen. Patrick Testin, state Rep. John Nygren, and former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow. Nicholson has the backing of U.S. Sen. and former presidential candidate Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and the national conservative groups Club for Growth and FreedomWorks.
What we're reading
- “Analysis: Who’s the establishment, anyway?” (The Texas Tribune)
- “Trump Turns toward the GOP Establishment” (National Review)
- “The case for restoring earmarks” (The Washington Post)
- “Yes, Congress is broken. But earmarks will only make it worse.” (The Washington Post)
