Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 4 (February 5, 2018)
This week in Heart of the Primaries: candidates debate, donors start making moves, and some big names bow out. We’re covering both sides of the 2018 primaries, so be sure to subscribe to Heart of the Primaries: Democrats by clicking here. See something we missed or have a tip for us? Email geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Ohio (Feb. 7), Indiana and Alabama (Feb. 9)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas, West Virginia, Kentucky (4)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27), Texas (March 6)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,337 Democrats, 1,022 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“In other words, Trump won over a lot of Americans with his State of the Union address — at least for the night. He created an opening. Let’s see what he does with it.”
- Marc Thiessen, FOX News, Feb. 1, 2018
“Tuesday night’s State of the Union is the right place to make this case—and the worst possible place to advance the current deal. All words matter, but words on this night matter even more. Trump supporters expect a wall, not amnesty.”
- Pete Hegseth, FOX News, Jan. 30, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 49
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 15
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Republicans get a contender in North Dakota Senate race
Former North Dakota Republican Party chair Gary Emineth (R) is running for the U.S. Senate. Emineth launched his bid after Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), whose campaign he managed in 2012, declined to run.
The only other Republican in the race: potato farmer Tom Campbell. He raised more than $1 million, self-funding nearly $750,000 of the total.
Endorsements versus money in Michigan Senate race
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Reps. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) have endorsed Army veteran and businessman John James (R) for the U.S. Senate in Michigan. The Senate Conservatives Fund also backed James this week.
Venture capitalist Sandy Pensler (R) has the fundraising advantage, having contributed $5 million to his own campaign.
Lesko and Montenegro step forward in Arizona’s 8th CD special election
Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) in the special election for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who resigned Jan. 31, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have endorsed the other contender for the seat, Steve Montenegro.
An OH Predictive Insights poll showed the candidates tied at 21 percent.
Nicholson’s Republican bona fides questioned in Wisconsin
Restoration PAC spent $200,000 on a January ad buy for Kevin Nicholson (R) in the Wisconsin Senate primary, bringing its total spent on the race to $1.5 million. Richard Uihlein, Illinois' largest conservative donor nationwide, is the super PAC’s main donor. The PAC’s ad calls Nicholson “a passionate convert to conservativism,” responding to criticism of his previous Democratic affiliation.
Also spending in the race: Diane Hendricks, who gave $500,000 to a pro-Leah Vukmir (R) super PAC.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
New Ives ad in IL gubernatorial primary draws varying reactions from Republicans
State Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) released a campaign ad against sitting Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). The spot mockingly thanks the governor for success in gaining support in multiple issues, including transgender bathroom laws, abortion funding, and bailing out Chicago Public Schools and the teachers’ union. Ives’ ad has drawn sharp criticism from some Republicans, while others have stood by her campaign and the ad.
“This TV ad has no place in Illinois,” Rauner’s campaign spokesman Will Allison said. “It just shows how unelectable Representative Ives really is.” Republican Party Chair Tim Schneider called on Ives to remove the ad. “There is no place in the Illinois Republican Party for rhetoric that attacks our fellow Illinoisans based on their race, gender or humanity,” Schneider said. “Representative Ives' campaign ad does not reflect who we are as the Party of Lincoln and as proud residents of our great and diverse state.”
Among those who supported Ives’ ad was John McGlasson, a member of the GOP’s state central committee. “In an age of ambiguity in politics, it’s a clear, unambiguous message about what Rauner stands for,” McGlasson said in a statement. “Everything in the video is correct.”
The Ives campaign says it will not pull the ad, responding that Rauner and Schneider ought to apologize to Republicans. “His [Rauner’s] accomplishments are limited to crony bailouts and radically liberal social policies. Many found this shocking,” the Ives campaign statement read. “The truth is Governor Rauner abandoned House and Senate Republicans to advance his leftist policy agenda time and again, signing the pieces of legislation featured in Ives’ ‘Thank you, Bruce Rauner’ ad that few, if any, Republicans supported.”
After the ad was released, the Ives campaign also announced a $2 million donation from billionaire businessman Dick Uihlein.
Ives is Rauner’s only challenger in the March 20 primary, which under Illinois law is open to all voters.
Illinois Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 7/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 22/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 51/118
Tom Tancredo ends campaign
Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) announced Tuesday he was dropping his bid for governor. In an interview with The Denver Post, Tancredo campaign manager Mike McAlpine said "Tom never wants to be in the position where he would win the primary and not win the general." Although Tancredo’s fundraising lagged behind three of his opponents, he had significant name recognition from previous gubernatorial runs. Tancredo ran on the Constitution Party ticket in 2010, finishing second -- 25 points ahead of third place finisher, GOP nominee Dan Maes. Tancredo lost his bid for the 2014 Republican nomination by 3.5 points.
Tancredo’s withdrawal reduces the current field to nine candidates. The filing deadline is March 20. The semi-closed primary is June 26.
Colorado Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 2/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 4/7
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 3/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 18/35
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 28/65
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 7.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 50 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 7.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 9.7 percent.
A closer look at the competing factions in Texas primaries
The conflict between House Speaker Joe Straus and the Texas Freedom Caucus will play out in at least 19 Texas state House Republican primaries March 6.
Fifteen of Straus’ allies and four members of the Freedom Caucus face challenges. Pro- and anti-Straus groups are lining up behind candidates in many of the 29 other Republican state legislative primaries, as well.
For a closer look at how the two sides define themselves, which issues divide them, and how political observers characterize their differences, check out our page on the factions.
If you are involved in the primaries and want your opinions about the factions included on our page, email rob.oldham@ballotpedia.org.
North Carolina bathroom bill author draws a primary challenge
Businesswoman Beth Monaghan is challenging state Sen. Dan Bishop in the May 8 primary. Bishop authored HB 2, often called North Carolina’s bathroom bill, while serving in the state House.
Approved in 2016, HB 2 required individuals to use the bathroom corresponding with the gender on their birth certificate and limited municipalities’ ability to pass non-discrimination ordinances. The measure was estimated to have cost the state $4 billion in economic development. A bill dropping HB 2’s bathroom provisions passed in 2017.
Monaghan said Bishop was “not focused on individual dignity, on freedom, economic development [and] the virtues of limited government.” When he introduced the bill, Bishop said it would “clarify that cities are not authorized to do radical social engineering as agents of the radical left.”
Washington D.C.-based consultants interested in the race’s symbolic link to the GOP’s stance on LGBTQ issues are backing Monaghan.
Alaska GOP steps up effort to oust coalition-aligned Republicans from party
Three Republicans who defected from their party to give Democrats the majority in the Alaska state House will not receive assistance, financial or otherwise, from the state Republican Party in 2018.
In a letter to Paul Seaton, Louise Stutes, and Gabrielle LeDoux, Chairman Tuckerman Babcock wrote:
“You are not eligible for any financial or other support from the [Alaska Republican Party], its affiliates, or subordinates and we do not recognize you as a legitimate Republican primary candidate in 2018.
The ARP, its affiliates and subordinates are authorized to recruit candidates for the office you now hold and to campaign actively for your defeat.”
Although Republicans won a 21-19 majority in 2016, Seaton, Stutes, and LeDoux joined with 17 Democrats and two independents to form a majority coalition. All three Republicans received top committee and leadership positions in the majority coalition.
In December 2017, Babcock wrote to the state Division of Elections requesting that the three be blocked from appearing on the Aug. 21 Republican primary ballot. His request was denied.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
John Bolton
"We need leaders who understand that America's liberty, prosperity and national security are inextricably linked... We must be prepared to do what it takes to protect the idea of American exceptionalism and our basic Constitutional priorities - the preservation of which are essential not only to our security, but to our prosperity as well." -John Bolton, announcing the formation of his PAC and super PAC in 2013.
Former UN Ambassador John Bolton formed a PAC and super PAC in 2013 to back national security-focused candidates. The PACs have endorsed 87 candidates in the 2014 midterms and 93 in 2016, spending more than $20 million across both cycles.
Those were all general election candidates. Now, Bolton’s PACs are getting involved in primaries. Earlier this month, the John Bolton super PAC announced a $1 million ad buy for Marine Corps vet [Kevin Nicholson] in Wisconsin's open U.S. Senate GOP primary. Bolton’s PAC endorsed and donated to Nicholson’s last year.
According to Axios, this is the first time Bolton's groups have engaged in a competitive Republican primary.
The $1 million Bolton's super PAC is investing almost matches the $1.2 million the Nicholson campaign had reported raising as of Jan. 10.
But it's not the only big money in the race.
Both Nicholson and his main primary opponent, state Sen. Leah Vukmir, have a megadonor on their side.
Richard Uihlein, who has given Bolton's super PAC $600,000 this cycle, has invested at least $3.5 million in the pro-Nicholson group Solutions for Wisconsin. Billionaire Diane Hendricks has endorsed Vukmir and given at least $500,000 to Wisconsin Next PAC, a super PAC supporting Vukmir’s campaign.
What we’re reading
- “Analysis: Texas Republicans confront an enemy within” (The Texas Tribune)
- “Republicans see hope for midterms, despite Trump’s unpopularity” (Politico)
- “Republicans Aim to Stop a Democratic Wave Right Here” (Bloomberg)
- “Lingering Trump skepticism among traditional Republicans clouds midterms” (Washington Examiner)
